How a 2012 Diplomatic Misfire Sparked a Decade of Chinese Defiance
The Current Flashpoint
Scarborough Shoal is back in the headlines — and with it, so are the warnings.
In September 2025, a Chinese vessel rammed a Philippine resupply boat near the shoal. In response, the U.S. Navy sailed a destroyer directly through the contested waters. The confrontation was brief, but the message was unmistakable: tensions are rising, and the risks are multiplying.
For many Americans, this reef barely registers. But this isn’t just a dust-up between distant nations. It’s a test of American resolve — and a moment that traces directly back to 2012.
2012: A Standoff Mishandled
That year, China and the Philippines faced off at Scarborough Shoal in a tense maritime standoff over fishing rights and territorial claims. The United States stepped in as a broker, aiming to de-escalate. Both nations were expected to withdraw their vessels.
Only one did.
The Philippines pulled back. China did not. And the United States — despite brokering the deal — failed to enforce the agreement or respond meaningfully.
To this day, Chinese ships remain at Scarborough Shoal, effectively taking control. This incident became a turning point in Beijing’s maritime aggression — and a chilling message to U.S. allies in Asia.
Why It Mattered Then — And Still Does
The 2012 failure sent a signal: U.S. guarantees could be questioned.
Philippine public trust eroded. Within a few years, President Duterte pivoted toward China, prioritizing economic deals over alignment with the U.S.
Meanwhile, China accelerated its militarization of the South China Sea — building artificial islands, expanding its maritime militia, and flexing its growing naval power.
What started as a fishing rights dispute became a global credibility crisis.
Now, a Decade Later…
Today’s confrontation is more than a replay. It’s a test of whether the U.S. has learned anything since 2012.
This time, the U.S. Navy showed up. But questions linger:
Will American resolve hold under pressure?
Can alliances like AUKUS and the U.S.-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty deter escalation?
And do Americans even understand how this reef connects to larger global stakes?
We’ve been here before. We got it wrong then. The consequences are still unfolding.
Why Americans Should Care
Scarborough Shoal isn’t just a reef. It’s a litmus test — for American credibility, regional stability, and the rule of law at sea.
If the U.S. fails to hold the line here, what message does that send to Taiwan, our allies, or our adversaries?
This series breaks it down in plain language — so Americans understand what’s at stake before it’s too late.
What’s Next in the Series
In the next post, we’ll dive into the 2016 international tribunal ruling, how China ignored it, and why this defiance matters not just for the Philippines, but for the future of international order.
We’re connecting the dots between today’s maritime flashpoints and tomorrow’s strategic risks — and making the case for a stronger Navy, an informed public, and a unified voice.
Visit StrongerNavy.org to follow the series and learn more.
U.S. and allied navies sailing in formationBill Cullifer, Founder
Introduction
Giving Credit Where It’s Due Kurt Campbell and Rush Doshi recently argued in the New York Times that America alone cannot match China’s growing scale — economically, technologically, or militarily — and that our strength depends on “allied scale.” They are right to say this out loud, and they deserve credit for raising the issue. Campbell has long been a voice for rebalancing U.S. strategy toward Asia, and Doshi has studied China’s grand strategy in depth. Their track records show they’ve been sounding the alarm.
Why We’re in This Position It’s fair to ask: if they saw this coming, why didn’t America adjust sooner? The truth is, Campbell and Doshi were not sitting in the chairs with the ultimate levers. Campbell’s call for a pivot to Asia faced headwinds from wars in the Middle East and competing budget priorities. Doshi, until recently, was in academia, warning of China’s rise but without a policymaker’s authority. They were raising the right concerns, but Washington’s attention was elsewhere. That’s not about pinning blame on individuals — it’s about recognizing how easy it is for America to be distracted.
The Larger Point The conversation they are starting in public now is one America needs to have candidly. China’s scale in shipbuilding, technology, and manufacturing is a strategic challenge unlike any we have faced before. Campbell and Doshi are right that alliances matter — losing India, Japan, or Europe to Chinese influence would change the balance overnight. But alliances alone aren’t enough. America must also invest in its own naval strength and rebuild the industrial base that sustains it.
My Role in This Conversation I am two years into this effort with Americans for a Stronger Navy. My job is not to dictate policy but to help Americans understand the facts. It is up to the American people to decide. What I can do is publish what’s happening, provide context, and advocate on behalf of my shipmates — so that when the time comes, they have the resources they need, where and when they need them.
Why Americans Should Care If we don’t get this right, it’s not only the Navy that will feel the consequences. Our supply chains, our economy, and our security all ride on free and open seas. Campbell and Doshi are right to remind us that “quantity has a quality all its own.” China has the quantity. America must respond with both quality and scale — and it will take both allies abroad and buy-in at home to meet that challenge.
That’s why we launched Charting the Course: Voices That Matter — a 24-part educational series breaking down how we got here, what went wrong, and what must happen next. Our goal is simple: educate the public, connect the dots, and build the support needed to close the readiness gap before it’s too late. Let’s roll.
Introduction As a former U.S. Navy destroyer sailor from the ’70s and founder of Americans for a Stronger Navy, I’ve seen firsthand how sea power isn’t only about ships—it’s about people, industry, and the trade that keeps America moving. This isn’t a Beltway debate; it touches your grocery bill, your job, and the undersea cables that carry your paycheck.
In this interview, Captain Brent D. Sadler, USN (Ret.), discusses the ideas from his book U.S. Naval Power in the 21st Century: A New Strategy for Facing the Chinese and Russian Threat. He calls this framework naval statecraft. In Washington circles, the same concept is often referred to as maritime statecraft—a term meant to highlight the economic and commercial side of sea power. As Sadler makes clear, the two are essentially the same. What matters is the substance: reconnecting America’s Navy with shipyards, supply chains, and allies.
If we want peace, prosperity, and fewer crises, we must rebuild the muscle behind the flag—logistics, repair, and a maritime workforce. This interview is a practical roadmap. —Bill
Overview Captain Brent D. Sadler, USN (Ret.), argues that America must reconnect military power with economics, industry, and trade—what he calls naval (or “maritime”) statecraft. It’s not a new strategy so much as a return to our roots: the Navy as a warfighter, a shaper of peace, and a protector of commerce. That means rebuilding ships and shipyards, restoring sealift and logistics, re-wiring alliances for industrial capacity, and aligning innovation with both commercial and military needs.
What Is Naval/Maritime Statecraft—and Why It Matters
More than combat: the Navy deters war, protects trade, and shapes the environment in peacetime.
Break the silos: integrate defense, diplomacy, and economics so China can’t “triangulate” between them.
Update the structure: organize like it’s a long competition again—industry, ports, sealift, and policy working together.
Lessons from History
Avoid a “Phony War”: weak industrial bases turn short crises into long wars.
Operate where you may have to fight: know the people, ports, and waters before a crisis.
Today’s Pressing Challenges
Industrial shortfall: workforce gaps, thin supply chains, and insufficient naval architects and yards.
Logistics as Achilles’ heel: too few tankers, dry cargo/ammo ships, and assured fuel storage after Red Hill.
Economic leverage: China’s dominance in shipbuilding, shipping fleets, and port stakes shapes global trade on its terms.
Undersea infrastructure: seabed cables and pipelines are targets; cyber and space resilience are now core to sea power.
A Practical Path Forward
Demand and Shipyards: use smart incentives (e.g., Jones Act demand, allied capital) to expand U.S. yard capacity.
Human Capital: rebuild the trades—welders, pipefitters, naval architects—and grow maritime education pipelines.
Innovation with Purpose: from advanced logistics to modular cargo, small modular reactors, and data-driven supply chains—commercial breakthroughs that also serve military sustainment.
Allied Muscle: tap allied shipping and yards (Japan, South Korea, Europe, Canada) to scale capacity fast and politically sustainably.
Why Americans Should Care Everything from groceries to phones rides ships and undersea cables. If adversaries control ports, fleets, and repair yards—or cut our cables—prices spike, jobs suffer, and crises last longer. Maritime strength keeps daily life predictable.
Implications for the Navy Prioritize logistics ships, fuel resilience, dispersed Pacific access, and contested-environment sustainment. Tie operational concepts to a revitalized industrial base so the fleet you plan is the fleet you can build, crew, repair, and keep at sea.
Implications for Our Allies A stronger U.S. maritime sector reduces dangerous dependence on Chinese shipbuilding and sustains shared deterrence. Joint investment in yards, sealift, and pre-positioned stocks turns alliances into real capacity.
Call to Action Citizens should press leaders—local, state, and federal—to support maritime education, shipyard expansion, and logistics recapitalization. Industry and investors should pursue maritime tech and U.S. waterfront projects. Policymakers should align defense, commerce, and diplomacy to grow capacity at home and with allies.
For readers who want to go deeper, Captain Brent D. Sadler, USN (Ret.), expands on these ideas in his book U.S. Naval Power in the 21st Century: A New Strategy for Facing the Chinese and Russian Threat. It offers a detailed blueprint for how America can reconnect its Navy, industry, and diplomacy in the new era of great power competition.
For deeper dives, we launched Charting the Course: Voices That Matter — a 24-part educational series breaking down how we got here, what went wrong, and what must happen next. Our goal is simple: educate the public, connect the dots, and build the support needed to close the readiness gap before it’s too late.
China and Russia are pushing closer to our northern doorstep — and Alaska is the front line.
Introduction
Over the past year, U.S. Coast Guard cutters have repeatedly intercepted foreign “research” ships operating just beyond the 200-mile line off Alaska’s Arctic coast. At the same time, the U.S. Navy has kept up under-ice submarine operations, while Russian aircraft test our air defense zone and Sino-Russian flotillas sail through the Bering Strait.
Map Legend Dashed Red Lines – Patrol routes and foreign vessel tracks monitored by the U.S. Coast Guard near Alaska’s Arctic coast. Solid Blue Lines – Projected Arctic shipping lanes, including the Northern Sea Route (along Russia) and emerging trans-Arctic corridors. Shaded Blue Zone – Exercise Northern Edge 2025 training areas, where U.S. and allied forces conducted joint, multi-domain operations. Black Ship Icons – Locations of recent intercepts of foreign “research” vessels near Utqiaġvik. Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) – U.S. waters extending 200 nautical miles from Alaska’s coast, where America exercises sovereign rights over resources.
The takeaway is simple: America’s Arctic is no longer quiet. It’s contested.
Why Americans Should Care Alaska is not a remote outpost. It is our Arctic front yard, rich in resources, with thousands of miles of shoreline and a narrow strait that connects the Pacific to the Arctic. When Chinese “research” vessels map our seabeds or Russian aircraft enter the Air Defense Identification Zone, they’re probing how close they can get to our homeland. What happens off Alaska affects energy security, trade routes, and even the protection of undersea cables that carry the world’s internet traffic.
RAND’s latest study underscores this point. In The Future of Maritime Presence in the Central Arctic Ocean (July 2025), RAND concludes that as sea ice retreats, the Arctic will draw in both Arctic and non-Arctic actors for economic, political, and military gain. They warn that competition will intensify in phases: first commercial, then political, and ultimately strategic. For the U.S., that means maritime presence is not optional — it is essential to prevent rivals from dictating the rules of the Arctic.
Implications for the Navy Day-to-day patrols fall to the Coast Guard, which provides the only regular surface presence in the Arctic. But the Navy’s role is no less critical. Its submarines operate beneath the ice, practicing for deterrence and warfighting in a domain where rivals are gaining ground. The Navy also views Alaska as part of the defense-in-depth of the United States — the first line of detection and deterrence against missile submarines, long-range bombers, and other threats moving south from the Arctic.
This year’s Northern Edge 2025 exercise made that point clear. More than 6,400 U.S. and Canadian service members, 100 aircraft, and seven warships, including USS Abraham Lincoln and her carrier strike group, trained across Alaska. Running alongside Arctic Edge, the exercises brought together INDOPACOM and NORTHCOM to practice joint, multi-domain operations — from the Aleutians to Adak. In other words: Alaska is not just about defending the homeland, it is a launchpad for projecting U.S. power into the Indo-Pacific.
The challenge remains that America’s icebreaker fleet is thin, while Russia operates dozens and China fields new polar-capable vessels. Without recapitalization and greater presence, the U.S. risks falling behind in its own backyard. RAND echoes this warning: presence and infrastructure — from icebreakers to domain awareness — are key to avoiding strategic surprise.
Implications for Our Allies The Arctic is no longer an American issue alone. NATO allies — Canada, Denmark, Norway — all face the same northern pressure. China brands itself a “near-Arctic state” and seeks influence in waters that directly border allied territory. Coordinated exercises like Northern Edge and Arctic Edge are proof that alliances matter. Shared domain awareness and investment in icebreaking and seabed security will be vital. If America steps back, allies are left exposed — and adversaries will fill the gap.
The Bottom Line Alaska’s Arctic waters are an overlooked but critical front in U.S. homeland defense. The Coast Guard may be on point, but the Navy’s presence under the ice and in the chokepoints is just as important. Together, they demonstrate that the U.S. is watching, ready, and committed to protecting its northern approaches.
That’s why we launched Charting the Course: Voices That Matter — a 24-part educational series breaking down how we got here, what went wrong, and what must happen next. Our goal is simple: educate the public, connect the dots, and build the support needed to close the readiness gap before it’s too late.
As a former destroyer sailor from the ’70s, a Navy veteran who served on the Henry B. Wilson (DDG 7), and later a telecom and web technology executive, I don’t take words like “war” lightly. But we need to face facts: the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has already launched a quiet war against America and our allies.
It doesn’t look like Pearl Harbor or Midway. Instead, it comes as millions of cyberattacks, poisoned streets, disinformation campaigns, and infiltrations into our critical infrastructure. The weapons are different, but the intent is the same: weaken America from the inside out until resistance collapses.
Two voices recently captured this reality:
Retired Rear Admiral Mike Studeman, former Commander of the Office of Naval Intelligence, warned: “The reality is that adversaries have insinuated themselves in our homeland and continue to exploit our society from the inside out. This is the quiet and costly national crisis we have insufficiently mobilized to address.”
Another security analyst summarized it bluntly: “Massive list of aggressive actions against the US by China, but two stand out: 1) cyber attacks on critical infrastructure, and 2) subsidizing fentanyl to addict our citizens. The CCP is an existential threat to our democracy and we must treat it as such.”
These aren’t exaggerations. They’re the facts on the ground — and in cyberspace.
Cyber Siege: The First Strike of Modern Conflict
The Hudson Institute’s August 2025 policy memo makes it plain: Taiwan now faces an average of 2.4 million cyberattacks per day. These intrusions target energy grids, logistics, medical systems, and semiconductors. Hudson’s conclusion is chilling: in a crisis, Beijing could disable Taiwan’s systems “without expending a single missile.”
This isn’t theory. It’s the same playbook Russia used against Ukraine in 2022, starting with cyberattacks to degrade command and control. The difference is that Taiwan is at the center of global supply chains, producing 90 percent of the world’s advanced semiconductors. If its networks go dark, the shockwaves would slam every corner of the global economy — including the U.S. Navy’s shipyards and weapons programs.
Fentanyl: War in Our Streets
While Taiwan faces digital siege, America faces chemical siege. CCP-linked networks subsidize the production of fentanyl precursors that end up killing tens of thousands of Americans each year. This is not just crime — it’s a form of warfare. An addicted, divided society is weaker, less resilient, and less able to project power abroad.
Just as cyberattacks aim to paralyze a nation’s systems, fentanyl undermines its people from within. Together, they form a strategy of attrition: weaken the United States until it can no longer lead.
Why Americans Should Care
PRC-backed groups like Volt Typhoon have already penetrated U.S. critical infrastructure in places like San Diego, Norfolk, and Houston.
Our communities are flooded with fentanyl that is subsidized and trafficked through networks linked to China.
Our economic security hangs on supply chains that Beijing can disrupt with a few keystrokes.
The CCP doesn’t need to invade to weaken us. They’re already doing it.
Implications for the Navy A Navy cannot fight if its logistics, communications, and supply lines are compromised. If Taiwan falls prey to a digital siege, our fleets in the Pacific will face an even harder fight — one fought without the semiconductor edge or the industrial resilience we’ve taken for granted.
The Navy will inevitably be tasked with cleaning up the mess: defending supply chains, securing sea lanes, and protecting American infrastructure from further exploitation. That means cyber resilience and industrial revival are as critical to naval readiness as shipbuilding or new destroyers.
Implications for Our Allies Hudson warns of a dangerous ambiguity: there is no Indo-Pacific cyber alliance. Would Japan, South Korea, or Australia respond to a Chinese cyberattack on Taiwan? Would Washington retaliate in kind? The lack of clarity undermines deterrence — and gives Beijing confidence.
We need joint cyber defense drills, clear doctrine, and public-private coordination on resilience — not after a crisis, but now.
Conclusion We are already at war — just not in the way most Americans imagine. The CCP’s cyberattacks, fentanyl subsidies, and influence operations are part of a long game of attrition. Admiral Studeman is right: this is a “quiet and costly national crisis” we’ve failed to mobilize against.
Hudson is right too: resilience is deterrence. America must strengthen its cyber defenses, rebuild its industrial base, and support Taiwan’s ability to withstand a digital siege. At the same time, we must recognize how Silicon Valley’s past choices — offshoring technology and handing Beijing the keys — helped create this vulnerability.
The sooner we admit the war has already begun, the sooner we can rally the Navy, our allies, and the American people to win it.
Introduction Thanks to Tom’s Hardware for spotlighting the latest chapter in U.S.–China tech tensions. Their reporting underscores a key point: America’s security is tied to technology policy. And those who warned about selling cutting-edge chips to Beijing in the first place—the so-called “China hawks”—are now watching these events unfold with an all-too-knowing smile.
What Happened China recently ordered its top tech companies to halt purchases of Nvidia’s H20 AI chips. This comes after U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Washington’s goal was to make China “addicted” to U.S. technology. While blunt, his remark struck a nerve, evoking the painful history of the Opium Wars and China’s “Century of Shame.”
The Hawks Were Right For years, U.S. lawmakers and analysts skeptical of Beijing’s intentions argued that selling advanced U.S. chips—even at a “watered down” level—would only fuel China’s ambitions. They warned that the short-term profits were not worth the long-term risk: once Chinese firms learned from U.S. technology, they would double down on building domestic alternatives and reduce their reliance on America. That is exactly what we are witnessing now.
At Americans for a Stronger Navy, we have been sounding the alarm on this same pattern. Just as the hawks predicted, the policies of short-term gain have fed into long-term vulnerabilities. Our mission is to ensure the American public understands these risks and rallies behind a stronger Navy — one prepared for the challenges of tomorrow.
China’s Long-Term Drive for Self-Reliance It’s important to note that this isn’t simply a reaction to Lutnick’s remark or recent export bans. For more than a decade, Beijing has been methodically working to reduce exposure to Western technology:
Made in China 2025 (2015) — A state-led plan to dominate sectors like semiconductors, AI, robotics, and aerospace by producing up to 70% of key components domestically.
Semiconductors & Chips — Massive state investment in SMIC and the “Big Fund” to build a homegrown chip industry, with Huawei rolling out its own Kirin processors despite U.S. sanctions.
Cybersecurity & Data — Laws mandating that Chinese data be stored on Chinese servers, cutting Western firms out of core infrastructure.
“Dual Circulation” (2020) — Xi Jinping’s policy to insulate China’s economy from foreign shocks by prioritizing domestic supply chains and technology independence.
These moves show that dependency on U.S. technology was never going to be permanent. Beijing’s strategy has always been to learn, copy, and ultimately replace. The hawks knew it, and the evidence proves them right.
Why It Matters
Economic Competition: Nvidia initially saw huge demand for the H20. But Chinese regulators are now pushing data centers to buy 50% of their chips from domestic firms.
Historical Sensitivities: Lutnick’s “addiction” remark may have been casual in the U.S., but it hit raw nerves in Beijing—feeding nationalist backlash and accelerating decoupling.
Strategic Leverage: Technology is today’s high ground. If America cedes it, it cedes the ability to shape global security and commerce.
Implications for the U.S. Navy The Navy’s edge rests on secure, reliable, advanced technology—from AI-driven analysis to unmanned systems. If China achieves independence from U.S. tech, the leverage America once had diminishes, narrowing our technological superiority at sea. Hawks warned this might happen—and now it’s becoming reality.
Implications for Our Allies Allies across Asia and Europe rely on U.S. technology, but if Beijing succeeds in exporting homegrown chip alternatives, it could create cracks in the U.S.-led alliance system. China wouldn’t just compete militarily—it would compete by shaping the world’s tech ecosystem.
Why Americans Should Care This isn’t just about Nvidia stock or quarterly earnings. It’s about whether America’s long-term security is sacrificed for short-term profit. The hawks who cautioned against empowering Beijing were pointing to this very moment. If China wins the tech race, it strengthens its military, weakens alliances, and challenges the Navy’s ability to keep the seas free and open.
Conclusion Tom’s Hardware’s reporting shines a spotlight on a dangerous dynamic: America risks repeating past mistakes. Selling technology to Beijing may fill order books, but it also fuels the very rival we’re preparing to deter. The hawks warned us, and their concerns are looking more prescient by the day.
👉 Learn more and join the conversation at StrongerNavy.org
That’s why we launched Charting the Course: Voices That Matter—a 24-part educational series breaking down how we got here, what went wrong, and what must happen next. Our goal is simple: educate the public, connect the dots, and build the support needed to close the readiness gap before it’s too late.
A Comprehensive Series by Americans for a Stronger Navy
By Bill Cullifer, Founder – Americans for a Stronger Navy
Introduction: Why We’re Launching This Series on Scarborough Shoal
What is Scarborough Shoal?
At first glance, it’s just a triangle-shaped reef in the South China Sea, roughly 120 nautical miles west of Luzon, Philippines. No buildings. No runway. No flag.
Scarborough Shoal, courtesy of the U.S. Navy.
But don’t let its humble appearance fool you.
Scarborough Shoal is one of the most contested flashpoints in the Indo-Pacific. This seemingly minor cluster of rocks and reefs sits at the heart of one of the world’s most vital sea lanes — and could very well be the next spark in a global conflict.
What Prompted This Series
We didn’t choose Scarborough Shoal at random. This series was prompted by a disturbing escalation in Chinese maritime aggression in the South China Sea — specifically at Scarborough Shoal, a small reef with outsized strategic consequences.
Recent satellite photo of Scarborough Shoal showing Chinese vessels surrounding the reef, with overlay graphics indicating vessel positions and types
Recent events that brought this to a head include:
A Chinese cutter and guided-missile destroyer collided during a botched blockade attempt of Philippine Coast Guard vessels ten nautical miles off Scarborough Shoal in August 2025.
USS Higgins (DDG-76) sailed within 12 nautical miles of Scarborough Shoal conducting a Freedom of Navigation Operation (FONOP) — the first known U.S. military operation in at least six years in these specific waters.
Chinese Coast Guard harassment of Philippine resupply missions.
Dumping of concrete blocks — a likely signal of future construction.
Swarming of the area by Chinese maritime militia vessels.
The Scarborough Shoal is quickly becoming a litmus test for Chinese expansionism and U.S. resolve.
Why Now: The Wake-Up Call
Scarborough Shoal lies just 120 nautical miles off the Philippine coast — well within their Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) — and even closer to America’s red lines. When China seized de facto control of the shoal in 2012, the U.S. stood back. Many viewed this as a strategic failure of deterrence.
Now, the world is witnessing the possibility of militarization of the reef — and direct confrontation with a U.S. ally. That makes this more than a regional issue. It’s a crisis in the making.
The 2012 Standoff: A Turning Point
In April 2012, Philippine authorities attempted to arrest Chinese fishermen operating illegally in the shoal. Chinese maritime surveillance ships intervened. A tense standoff ensued, lasting weeks. The U.S. brokered a deal: both sides would withdraw.
The Philippines kept its word. China didn’t.
Instead, China took control of Scarborough Shoal, effectively barring Filipino access ever since. They now patrol it with coast guard cutters, militia fishing boats, and surveillance drones — sometimes even water cannons. Construction may follow.
A Geopolitical Tinderbox in the Sea
The South China Sea is home to trillions of dollars in annual global trade. It’s also flush with resources: fish, gas, oil, and geostrategic leverage. China claims nearly all of it under its so-called “Nine-Dash Line” — a sweeping assertion that ignores international law and overrides the rights of Southeast Asian nations like the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia.
Scarborough Shoal, or Bajo de Masinloc as the Filipinos call it, lies within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ), as defined under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration definitively ruled that China’s sweeping claims in the South China Sea had no legal basis under international law.
China’s response? They ignored the ruling entirely and doubled down on their aggression.
My Perspective: This Isn’t Just a Reef
As a former Navy destroyer sailor from the 1970s, I understand how seemingly minor naval flashpoints can quickly spiral. I launched Americans for a Stronger Navy to bridge the gap between what’s happening on the water and what the American public knows.
When I began Americans for a Stronger Navy, I did so because I believed — and still believe — that Americans are not being told the full story.
Scarborough Shoal isn’t on the nightly news — but it should be.
This reef is about more than rocks and water. It’s about:
Sovereignty
International law
Access to critical trade routes
Maintaining a rules-based order
The failure of deterrence
The rise of maritime bullying
The fragility of global trade
And the uncomfortable question: Will America act, or will we retreat?
Why Americans Must Pay Attention
Most Americans have never heard of Scarborough Shoal, but they should. Here’s why it matters to you:
Over $3 trillion in trade passes through the South China Sea annually.
China is testing the boundaries of international law and Western will.
Scarborough is a potential trigger point for a wider conflict — even WWIII.
The U.S. Navy may be forced to act, and our sailors are on the front line.
Success here emboldens China’s tactics elsewhere — Taiwan Strait, East China Sea.
Control of Scarborough supports China’s broader Belt and Road Initiative and maritime silk road ambitions.
If you think a shoal doesn’t matter, consider this: $3.4 trillion in global trade flows through the South China Sea every year. China is attempting to rewrite the rules of international waters. And the U.S. Navy — your Navy — is the thin blue line standing in the way.
Coming Up in This Series
The history of Scarborough Shoal and how we got here
The 2012 U.S.-brokered standoff and its long-term impact
The 2016 international arbitration ruling and China’s defiance
China’s maritime militia and “gray zone” tactics
The importance of fishing rights, seabed minerals, and cable networks
Allied response frameworks: QUAD, AUKUS, and Philippines mutual defense commitments
The implications for the U.S., our allies, and our Navy
Economic warfare potential and leverage tactics
Technology, surveillance, and intelligence dimensions
WWIII scenarios — and what they could look like
Congressional and policy tools available (or missing)
What Americans know (or don’t) about this growing threat
Each post will build context and momentum — helping readers understand why this small reef could shape the future of American security strategy in Asia and beyond.
Join the Mission
Understanding Scarborough Shoal is understanding a fault line in today’s global order. This series isn’t just about sounding the alarm — it’s about equipping Americans with insight, history, and facts so we can rally support, demand accountability, and avoid miscalculation.
If we don’t understand where the storm is brewing, we won’t know when to take shelter — or when to stand our ground.
Scarborough Shoal may seem far away. But the values at stake — sovereignty, freedom of navigation, and deterrence — are right at our doorstep.
Not to inflame. Not to fearmonger. But to educate, illuminate, and inspire action.
Please follow along, share with others, and help us shine a spotlight on one of the most important — and most underreported — strategic flashpoints of our time.
Stay with us. Read. Share. Talk about it.
Because understanding this reef might just help us prevent the next war.
A Final Thought
If a reef you’ve never heard of could spark the next major war — dragging America and its sailors into the fight — doesn’t that make it worth understanding?
Let’s chart the course together.
That’s why we launched Charting the Course: Voices That Matter—a 24-part educational series breaking down how we got here, what went wrong, and what must happen next. Our goal is simple: educate the public, connect the dots, and build the support needed to close the readiness gap before it’s too late.
Illustration of the AIRCAT Bengal MC, the world’s most advanced autonomous naval vessel.
Introduction
The recent unveiling of the AIRCAT Bengal MC marks one of the most significant leaps in naval technology in recent years. Developed by Eureka Naval Craft in collaboration with Greenroom Robotics and ESNA Naval Architects, this 36-meter Surface Effect Ship (SES) blends cutting-edge speed, payload capacity, modularity, and autonomous operation. Capable of operating both crewed and uncrewed, the Bengal MC is designed to execute a wide range of missions—from launching Tomahawk cruise missiles to serving as a drone mothership—at a fraction of the cost of traditional warships. For a Navy seeking to maximize agility and lethality while controlling costs, the Bengal MC may represent a new model for maritime dominance.
Advanced Design and Capabilities
At the heart of the Bengal MC’s innovation is its SES hull, a hybrid between a hovercraft and a catamaran, which reduces drag and allows speeds exceeding 50 knots. It can carry up to 44 tons—enough for two 40-foot ISO modules—while maintaining a 1,000 nautical-mile operational range. This enables deployment to distant theaters without frequent refueling.
Mission versatility is a hallmark of the Bengal MC. Configurable for troop transport, landing support, electronic warfare, mine-laying or counter-mine operations, reconnaissance, and high-speed logistics, its modular construction allows the ship to be tailored for the task at hand. It’s equipped to launch Tomahawk cruise missiles and Naval Strike Missiles, providing a level of firepower that traditionally required much larger, more expensive ships.
Autonomy and Operational Flexibility
Powered by Greenroom Robotics’ Advanced Maritime Autonomy Software (GAMA), the Bengal MC is fully capable of autonomous operation, while still offering human-in-the-loop oversight. This system was validated through the Patrol Boat Autonomy Trial, ensuring reliability in complex maritime environments. Its ability to operate autonomously means it can be deployed into high-risk zones without putting sailors directly in harm’s way, while crewed missions remain an option for complex operations.
Efficiency and Strategic Value
The Bengal MC is also designed for fuel efficiency and reduced operating costs, making it an attractive option for navies needing maximum capability per dollar spent. Its ability to replace or augment larger surface combatants with smaller, faster, more adaptable ships could reshape the way the U.S. Navy and allied forces plan their fleets. This is particularly critical in the Indo-Pacific, where speed, reach, and survivability are vital.
Why Americans Should The Bengal MC
represents a shift toward a leaner, faster, more lethal Navy—one that can respond quickly to threats without waiting for a carrier strike group to arrive. In an era where peer adversaries like China are rapidly expanding and modernizing their fleets, the U.S. must adopt innovative solutions to maintain maritime dominance. This is about more than ships; it’s about safeguarding trade routes, deterring aggression, and ensuring that America retains freedom of movement on the seas.
Implications for the Navy
For the U.S. Navy, the Bengal MC offers an opportunity to expand distributed maritime operations with high-speed, missile-capable platforms that are less expensive to build and operate. The autonomy package reduces crew demands, freeing personnel for other critical missions. In contested environments, these vessels can serve as fast-moving strike platforms, reconnaissance nodes, or logistic links—roles that support and extend the reach of larger fleet assets.
Implications for Our Allies
For U.S. allies in AUKUS, NATO, and key Indo-Pacific partnerships, the Bengal MC offers an interoperable, high-performance platform that can be rapidly integrated into joint operations. Nations like Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines—facing their own maritime security challenges—could use this vessel to augment their fleets without the heavy investment required for traditional destroyers or frigates. Greater allied adoption would strengthen collective maritime defense and create a shared technological advantage over adversaries.
Conclusion
The AIRCAT Bengal MC is more than a new ship—it’s a potential blueprint for the future of naval warfare. Fast, flexible, and autonomous, it demonstrates how advanced engineering and smart design can produce a strategic asset that meets the demands of modern maritime security. If the U.S. and its allies choose to embrace this model, it could mark a turning point in the race for naval superiority in the 21st century.
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Russian and Chinese naval forces completed a coordinated patrol through the strategically vital Soya Strait near Japan on August 8, following their Joint Sea 2025 exercise. The three-ship flotilla—including China’s destroyer CNS Shaoxing, supply ship CNS Qiandaohu, and Russia’s destroyer Admiral Tributs—sailed eastbound from the Sea of Japan into the Sea of Okhotsk, demonstrating growing operational coordination between America’s two primary maritime rivals.
What the Numbers Tell Us
The data reveals an unmistakable pattern of escalating military cooperation:
113 joint military exercises conducted by China and Russia since 2003. The Joint Sea exercise series, launched in 2012, has now been conducted 10 times and has become what China calls “a key platform for China-Russia military cooperation.” This latest exercise (August 1-5) included sophisticated joint air defense, counter-sea, and anti-submarine operations.
While China’s Defense Ministry insists this cooperation is “not aimed at any third party” and dismisses criticism as “groundless speculation,” the operational reality speaks louder than diplomatic assurances.
Why This Matters for American Naval Power
Public statements aside, these are not ceremonial sail-bys. China and Russia are systematically deepening their operational coordination in waters that form part of America’s strategic defense perimeter in the western Pacific.
The Soya Strait—positioned between Russian Sakhalin Island and Japan’s Hokkaido—represents more than a shipping lane. It’s a critical chokepoint in the maritime geography that has historically allowed the U.S. Navy and its allies to maintain sea control in the region.
Geographic reality check: Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines aren’t just treaty allies—they’re the geographic anchors of America’s first island chain strategy. When hostile naval forces operate in coordinated fashion near these positions, it directly challenges the maritime supremacy that has underpinned regional stability since 1945.
Strategic Implications: What the U.S. Navy Must Consider
For Naval Planning: The U.S. Navy must now prepare for scenarios where China and Russia function as an integrated maritime threat in the western Pacific. This means developing tactics for simultaneous multi-axis threats, ensuring our Pacific Fleet can maintain sea control against coordinated opposition, and investing in platforms and weapons systems designed for high-intensity naval combat.
For Alliance Management: Japan’s latest defense white paper already warns of China’s “swift” military expansion and “intensifying activities” around disputed territories. This patrol reinforces Tokyo’s concerns and validates Japan’s own naval modernization efforts.
For other regional allies, the message is clear: strategic cooperation with Washington must evolve as rapidly as the threat. Beijing and Moscow are not standing still—neither can we.
The Broader Context: Russia’s Pacific Return
Russia’s renewed naval activism in the Pacific, combined with China’s expanding blue-water capabilities, represents a fundamental shift in the regional balance of power. The Russian Pacific Fleet’s stated objectives—”maintaining peace and stability” while protecting “economic assets”—mirror the language China uses to justify its South China Sea expansion.
Bottom line: When two authoritarian powers with global ambitions coordinate naval operations near democratic allies, American naval strength becomes the decisive variable in maintaining regional stability.
What This Means Going Forward
The August 8 transit may have occurred beyond Japan’s territorial waters, but the strategic message was unmistakable. As these exercises become more frequent and sophisticated, the U.S. Navy faces a new operational reality: preparing not just for individual threats from China or Russia, but for their coordinated maritime power projection.
The choice is stark—maintain naval superiority through continued investment in platforms, training, and alliance coordination, or watch strategic competitors reshape the maritime order in the world’s most economically vital region.
For Americans who understand that naval power remains the foundation of global stability, the time for half-measures has passed.
Americans for a Stronger Navy advocates for the naval capabilities required to maintain American maritime superiority and protect our allies worldwide.
Chart of the disposition of ships the night of 8 AugustBill Cullifer, Founder
Introduction
On this solemn anniversary of the Battle of Savo Island, Americans for a Stronger Navy joins our Australian allies in remembering the courage and sacrifice of those who gave their lives in the dark waters off Guadalcanal on August 9, 1942.
The loss of HMAS Canberra and her 84 brave sailors, alongside over 900 American naval personnel, represents more than numbers—it represents the ultimate sacrifice made by free nations standing together against tyranny. This battle, while tactically a defeat, demonstrated the unbreakable bond between Australian and American naval forces that continues to secure the Pacific today.
The lessons of Savo Island—the critical importance of naval readiness, advanced training, and technological superiority—remain as relevant now as they were 82 years ago. As we face new challenges in the Pacific, from contested sea lanes to emerging threats, we honor these fallen heroes by ensuring our Navy maintains the strength, capability, and resolve they died defending.
Their sacrifice reminds us that freedom of navigation and maritime security are not abstract concepts, but principles worth defending with our lives. Today, as then, a strong Navy remains America’s first line of defense and our greatest tool for preserving peace through strength.
We stand with Australia in remembering these heroes and recommit ourselves to the naval strength that protects both our nations.
A Salute to Those Who Remember
To all who pause today to honor these fallen sailors—veterans, families, historians, students, and citizens both American and Australian—thank you. Your remembrance keeps their sacrifice alive and their lessons relevant. Whether you’re a descendant of a Savo Island survivor, a naval history enthusiast, or simply someone who understands that freedom isn’t free, your attention to this anniversary matters.
Special recognition goes to our Australian friends, military historians, naval societies, and educators who ensure these stories continue to be told. In an age of shortened attention spans, those who preserve and share naval history perform a vital service to both our nations.
Why Average Americans Should Care About the Battle of Savo Island
Economic Security The Pacific carries over $1.4 trillion in annual trade vital to American prosperity. These are the same trade routes where sailors died in 1942. Today, 40% of America’s imports cross these waters, along with critical shipping lanes for oil, gas, and renewable energy components that power our economy.
Historical Lessons for Today Savo Island showed the cost of being caught unprepared—a lesson directly applicable to current Pacific tensions. The battle demonstrated why strong allies like Australia are essential to American security, and how technological superiority matters. Japanese superiority in night-fighting capabilities led to their victory; today’s tech gaps could prove equally costly.
Personal Connection Many American families have ancestors who served in the Pacific Theater. Understanding what military service truly costs helps inform decisions about defense spending and foreign policy. The battle reminds us that the freedoms Americans enjoy came at tremendous cost and weren’t guaranteed by geography alone.
Current Relevance The same strategic waterways remain crucial to American interests today. Modern tensions in the South China Sea echo the naval competition of WWII, and historical battles like Savo Island inform current debates about naval funding and capabilities.
Strengthening Allied Partnerships
The Battle of Savo Island reminds us that America’s security depends not just on our own naval strength, but on the strength of our alliances. Today, this means:
The AUKUS Partnership with Australia and the UK builds on the naval cooperation forged in battles like Savo Island, sharing submarine technology that strengthens all three nations. Joint training exercises with Australian, Japanese, and other Pacific allies ensure we won’t repeat the communication failures of 1942 that contributed to the defeat.
Shared intelligence networks and integrated defense relationships born from WWII sacrifices now provide early warning and coordinated responses to regional threats. Allied shipbuilding and defense manufacturing strengthen both nations’ naval capabilities, creating an industrial base that supports deterrence.
The Battle of Savo Island isn’t just history—it’s a reminder that American prosperity and security depend on naval strength and strong alliances. The sailors who died there died protecting the world we live in today. Their legacy lives on not just in our memory, but in the enduring partnerships their sacrifice helped forge.
If we want peace, we must master this new domain.
It’s time to embrace it. It’s time to invest. It’s time to lead.
That’s why we launched Charting the Course: Voices That Matter—a 24-part educational series breaking down how we got here, what went wrong, and what must happen next. Our goal is simple: educate the public, connect the dots, and build the support needed to close the readiness gap before it’s too late.
