Category: Charting the Course

Charting the Course: Navigating the Future of American Naval Power’ a podcast series that dives into the past, present, and future of the U.S. Navy and its impact on the world.

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The Indo-Pacific Imperative: America’s Interests, China’s Ambitions, and the Navy’s Role”

Introduction

The vast expanse of the Pacific Ocean may seem distant to many Americans, but the security and prosperity of our nation are inextricably linked to the intricate geopolitical currents thousands of miles away. As part of our “Charting the Course” series, this post explores why the Indo-Pacific—particularly the islands in and around the Philippines and the South China Sea—is a linchpin for American interests and why a strong U.S. Navy is essential.

A Brief History of the Region – Pre-Colonial Era:

The South China Sea was historically traversed by traders from China, India, Arabia, and Southeast Asia. Ancient maritime kingdoms like Srivijaya and Majapahit relied on its waters for commerce and influence. – Colonial Period: Spain colonized the Philippines in the 16th century, later replaced by the United States after the Spanish-American War in 1898. Western colonial powers mapped and administered many islands, including disputed features. – World War II: Japan used the region as a springboard for its Pacific conquests. The Philippines was a central battlefield and strategic objective. – Post-War and Cold War: The U.S. maintained bases in the Philippines (Subic Bay and Clark Air Base) to counter Soviet influence and guarantee maritime stability. – Modern Tensions: In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration rejected China’s vast claims over the South China Sea—yet China has continued militarizing the area.

The Indo-Pacific: A Region of Vital Importance Trade Route Overlay – Maritime shipping lanes through the South China Sea)

The map above highlights Southeast Asia, the Philippines, the Sulu Sea, and the contested Spratly Islands. Far from being remote specks on a globe, these are the crossroads of global commerce, strategic power, and vital resources.

Why This Region Matters – Global Economic Lifeline: Over half the world’s commercial shipping—including oil, gas, and manufactured goods—flows through Indo-Pacific sea lanes. Disruption means global economic instability. – Resource Richness: The South China Sea holds untapped oil, gas, and some of the richest fishing grounds on Earth. Control equals economic leverage. – Geostrategic Chokepoints: Straits like Malacca are arteries of global trade. Blockages would have ripple effects worldwide. – Territorial Disputes: China’s sweeping claims under its “nine-dash line” ignore international law and threaten stability.

Why Every American Should Care U.S. Navy Carrier Strike Group – Indo-Pacific deployment) – Your Wallet:

Disrupted shipping means rising prices—on everything from electronics to gasoline. – Your Security: The U.S. alliance with the Philippines is decades old. Honoring it deters aggression and upholds American credibility. – Our Values: Freedom of navigation and rule of law are at stake. China’s defiance of the 2016 arbitration ruling threatens global norms. – Countering Global Threats: U.S. naval presence helps deter piracy, illegal fishing, and extremism.

Understanding China’s Interests: Chinese Artificial Islands – Aerial military outposts on Fiery Cross Reef or Subi Reef) –

Sovereignty Claims: China insists on “indisputable sovereignty” over nearly all the South China Sea. – Economic Control: Energy reserves and fishing grounds are key to China’s survival and growth. – Strategic Depth: Artificial islands serve as military outposts, helping China create an Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) zone. – Regional Dominance: China aims to push out U.S. influence and replace it with its own.

The Indispensable Role of the U.S. Navy: Humanitarian Aid – U.S. Navy delivering disaster relief in the Philippines) – Guardians of Global Trade: Ensuring freedom of navigation is a core Navy mission. – Projecting Power and Deterrence: A visible, capable Navy deters conflict. – Supporting Allies: Exercises and operations with partners like the Philippines extend U.S. influence. – Responding to Crises: From disaster relief to piracy, the Navy leads with humanitarian action. – Upholding International Law: FONOPS challenge China’s excessive claims. – Logistics and Access: Bases in allied nations ensure global reach and readiness.

Regional Flashpoints & Hot Zones (Image Placeholder: Annotated Philippines Map – Highlighting Palawan, Sulu Sea, Spratlys, and Scarborough Shoal) – Scarborough Shoal: Site of repeated standoffs between Chinese and Philippine vessels. – Second Thomas Shoal:

Philippine Navy outpost continually harassed by China. – Spratly Islands: Militarized by China; claimed by Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and others. – Palawan: Launch point for Philippine patrols and likely U.S. logistics hub. – Sulu-Celebes Seas: Transit corridors threatened by piracy and terror networks.

Recent Developments Philippine Navy with U.S. Navy – Joint patrol or port visit in Palawan – China’s Harassment:

Philippine vessels have been targeted with water cannons. – Philippine Pushback: Manila is strengthening its Navy and deepening alliances. – U.S. Support: Building Navy facilities, co-hosting exercises, and providing missile systems.

Regional & Global Context: First Island Chain Map – Taiwan, Philippines, Japan highlighted) – First Island Chain: The Philippines is part of the geographic arc vital for deterring Chinese expansion. – Gray Zone Tactics: China uses militias and coast guards to pressure neighbors without direct war. – Environmental Damage: Artificial islands harm coral reefs and biodiversity. – U.S. Navy’s Shipbuilding Challenges: While China expands its fleet, America must overcome delays and cost overruns.

Conclusion: Why This Matters Now The Indo-Pacific is not a distant concern—it’s a frontline in the battle for economic freedom, rule of law, and strategic stability. The U.S. Navy is not just a military force; it’s a pillar of national and global resilience. Investing in its strength is not optional—it’s essential for charting America’s future course.

This region—stretching from the Spratly Islands to the Sulu Sea, from Palawan to Palau—is where alliances are tested, supply chains are secured, and adversaries are deterred. The Philippines and surrounding waters are more than a map—they’re a mission.

At Americans for a Stronger Navy, we don’t advocate fear—we advocate responsibility. We believe war is preventable, but only if America wakes up and acts.

That’s why we launched Charting the Course: Voices That Matter—a 24-part educational series breaking down how we got here, what went wrong, and what must happen next. Our goal is simple: educate the public, connect the dots, and build the support needed to close the readiness gap before it’s too late.

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America’s Fleet Readiness Crisis: What 80% Really Means

Bill Cullifer, Founder
Bill Cullifer, Founder

Introduction

If you’ve been following along, you know we’ve been sounding the alarm for some time now—raising concerns not out of fear, but out of duty. At Americans for a Stronger Navy, we don’t profit from defense contracts or feed the industrial complex. We’re here because the facts are in: the Navy is falling short of the readiness our nation demands—and we must do better.

The U.S. Navy is aiming for 80% surge readiness by 2027—but it’s stuck at 60%. That 20% gap could determine whether America deters conflict—or invites one.

Brent Sadler, Senior Fellow for Naval Warfare and Advanced Technology at The Heritage Foundation and author of U.S. Naval Power in the 21st Century: A New Strategy for Facing the Chinese and Russian Threat, put it bluntly:

“It won’t happen until more ships enter the fleet to drive operational tempo down to 30%.”

Top Navy leaders have echoed this urgency. As one Navy official said plainly:

“We must increase our fleet readiness to 80% by 2027 to meet global security demands and deter peer-level threats.”

That’s the heart of the problem—and a major reason we’re sounding the alarm.

From the Indo-Pacific to the U.S. Southern border, the Navy is being stretched dangerously thin. The ships we have are aging, overworked, and under-maintained. Meanwhile, new construction is lagging—leaving sailors to shoulder an impossible burden, and the nation exposed.

At Americans for a Stronger Navy, we don’t advocate fear—we advocate responsibility. We believe war is preventable, but only if America wakes up and acts.

That’s why we launched Charting the Course: Voices That Matter—a 24-part educational series breaking down how we got here, what went wrong, and what must happen next. Our goal is simple: educate the public, connect the dots, and build the support needed to close the readiness gap before it’s too late.

Let’s move beyond slogans. Let’s build understanding, accountability, and strength—before the next crisis comes knocking.

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America’s Cyber Crisis Hits the Deck: The Tech Sector, China, and Why a Stronger Navy Matters 

Bill Cullifer, Founder
Bill Cullifer, Founder

Introduction

This week, we saw confirmation of what we’ve feared—and been warning about—for over 18 months: America’s digital defenses have been compromised, and it’s our Navy that’s left exposed.

According to Politico, a sweeping cyberattack has been launched by at least three Chinese state-linked hacking groups: Violet Typhoon, Linen Typhoon, and Storm-2603.

Their target? Microsoft’s SharePoint servers—used widely across the federal government, including DoD and Navy-linked systems.

Microsoft, in a Tuesday blog post, acknowledged the severity of the breach. Independent security experts at Mandiant and Censys corroborated the finding: more than 100 organizations globally are believed to be affected—including multiple U.S. federal agencies, some tied to national defense.

The flaw? An unpatched vulnerability in Microsoft’s on-premise SharePoint product.
The result? Remote access into sensitive systems.
The fallout? Still spreading.

And it’s not the first time. In 2023, Chinese actors breached the emails of the U.S. Ambassador to China and the Commerce Secretary, also by exploiting Microsoft misconfigurations. It’s a pattern—and one we can no longer afford to ignore.

Why Americans Should Care

Here’s the hard truth: this breach is a symptom of a larger failure—one that involves the defense-industrial complex, Big Tech, and complacency at the highest levels of oversight.

  • Pentagon systems supported by China-based engineers
  • Software flaws ignored or inadequately patched
  • Critical U.S. infrastructure reliant on foreign nationals in adversarial countries

And now? The U.S. Navy, tasked with protecting global stability, must operate with compromised tools—while companies like Microsoft continue to make billions from government contracts.

It’s not just bad policy. It’s a national security liability.

Implications for the Navy

  • SharePoint vulnerabilities can compromise logistics, intel coordination, and real-time decision-making.
  • At least two Navy-related systems are believed to be among the dozens affected.
  • The breach arrives as the Navy pushes toward a critical readiness benchmark.

Acting Chief of Naval Operations Admiral James Kilby put it plainly:

“We must exercise strategic discipline, increase surge readiness, and protect scheduled maintenance. Our goal is to achieve an 80% combat-surge ready posture by 2027. We are currently at 60% readiness—and that gap is unacceptable.”

The Navy wants to prevent war, not provoke it. But readiness is the only deterrent adversaries understand. And right now, we are dangerously behind.

My Message: Fix, Educate, Mobilize

I’m not writing this to indict. I’m writing to fix and educate.

This crisis has serious implications. The threats are real. And the probability of conflict is rising.

I don’t believe in fear-mongering—but I do believe in calling things by their name. What we are seeing—again—is a system-wide breakdown in how we protect the digital backbone of our military.

This is what I’ve been shouting about for 18 months. Not because I enjoy sounding the alarm—but because someone must.

The taxpayers are left holding the bill.
The sons and daughters of those I served with are left to face the danger.
And the Navy is left to grovel for support to do what only they can—protect this nation at sea and abroad.

What We’re Doing About It

That’s why I launched Americans for a Stronger Navy—to demand accountability, readiness, and real reform.

And that’s why we’re rolling out:
Charting the Course: Voices That Matter—a 24-part educational series exploring:

  • The outsourcing of our military tech infrastructure
  • The erosion of our domestic workforce
  • The choke points in our digital and maritime defenses
  • Concrete ways to fix what’s broken

We’ll spotlight reforms in procurement, workforce development, public-private partnerships, and cybersecurity strategy.

Because the tech sector is culpable—and I call on them now to help us fix this. They helped get us into this mess. They must help get us out.

Final Word

  • Big Tech failed.
  • Oversight failed.
  • The Navy must now bear the consequences.

We’re not just talking about ships and steel—we’re talking about the servers, systems, and software that power warfighting in the 21st century.

And if we don’t wake up, the next war won’t wait.

👉 Join the movement at StrongerNavy.org
Support those who serve. Strengthen what they stand for.

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Microsoft’s China Problem Just Became America’s Wake-Up Call 

If you’ve been following us over the past couple of years, you already know—we’ve been sounding the alarm.

Bill Cullifer, Founder
Bill Cullifer, Founder

Introduction

This week’s news confirms it: Microsoft allowed China-based engineers to support U.S. military cloud systems, including infrastructure tied to the Navy. It took a journalistic exposé, a senator’s inquiry, and finally a directive from the Secretary of Defense to shut it down.

Let’s be clear—this is systemic.

This wasn’t one company’s mistake. It reflects a broader failure—where critical defense infrastructure is entangled with adversarial regimes, our tech workforce has been hollowed out, and profit has been prioritized over patriotism.

This Is My Journey—and My Shout: From Destroyer Sailor to Digital Sentinel

My early days as a U.S. Navy destroyer sailor in the 1970s gave me a global perspective that’s stayed with me ever since. I saw firsthand how the world’s most critical maritime trade routes—from the Malacca Strait to the South China Sea—could quickly become flashpoints when adversaries or their proxies seized control. I came to understand just how vital the U.S. Navy’s role in freedom of navigation is—not only in defending democracy abroad, but in protecting our economic and strategic interests here at home.

After a career in telecommunications, I turned my focus to education. In 1997, I founded a national association committed to building America’s digital workforce. We trained web developers, server administrators, and IT professionals—because I believed then, as I still do, that digital strength is national strength.

Even back then, the writing was on the wall: rising dependence on China, fragile supply chains, and a dangerous complacency about safeguarding America’s digital and strategic backbone.

What I Saw Coming

I could see where this was headed. The decisions being made in boardrooms and bureaucracies—about outsourcing, offshoring, and chasing short-term profits—were creating long-term risks. And I knew exactly who would be left to deal with the fallout: our Navy and the sons and daughters of those I served with.

They’d be the ones sent to navigate hostile waters, defend contested choke points, and hold the line during crises that began far from the sea.

Why I Launched Americans for a Stronger Navy

I couldn’t sit back and hope it would all work itself out. I’ve seen too much. And frankly, it pains me to see the Navy have to grovel for support in an era where threats are multiplying—not receding.

That’s why I founded Americans for a Stronger Navy—to push for the readiness, resources, and respect our Navy needs. Because I know what’s at stake—not just for this country’s future, but for the safety of our allies and the stability of the global order.

This is just the beginning. In the weeks ahead, I’ll be breaking down what went wrong—and how we fight back.

More Than Microsoft: A National Security Crisis

The Navy—and the rest of our armed forces—now depends on cloud systems for everything from warfighting logistics to operational readiness. But when those systems are built or maintained by foreign nationals under weak supervision, our adversaries don’t need to hack their way in.  They’re already inside.

This Microsoft scandal is just the latest proof point. Behind it lies:

* A depleted domestic technical base

* A defense industry over-leveraged to foreign subcontractors

* Big Tech firms chasing margins—not national security

And at the center of it all? A Navy that’s being asked to do more with less—and too often, without the tools it needs.

What Comes Next: Charting the Course

That’s why we’re launching Charting the Course: Voices That Matter—a comprehensive 24-session educational series designed to peel back the layers of how we got here, what went wrong, and what must happen next.

Each session will tackle a specific facet of the crisis—from the outsourcing of digital infrastructure and the hollowing out of our industrial base, to the cybersecurity vulnerabilities inside the Navy’s digital backbone. We’ll examine the influence of adversarial regimes, the failure of public-private accountability, and the high-stakes strategic chokepoints where our forces may soon be tested.

But this isn’t just about understanding the problem. It’s about charting a path forward.

We’ll offer concrete proposals to revitalize American shipbuilding, retrain our tech workforce, and rebalance the defense-industrial ecosystem to serve national—not corporate—interests. And yes—we’ll ask the tough question: how do we pay for it?

Because the days of bloated, inefficient spending are over. We need what Navy leadership is already calling for: a leaner, more lethal, and more disciplined force. As Acting CNO Admiral James Kilby put it, the Navy must:

“Exercise strategic discipline… while increasing surge readiness… without sacrificing scheduled maintenance,” with a goal of achieving “an 80% combat‑surge ready posture by 2027.”

We’ll explore potential solutions ranging from public-private innovation partnerships and industrial reinvestment incentives, to reallocating wasteful spending and rethinking procurement models that reward results—not red tape.

These sessions are designed to educate the public, inform policymakers, and mobilize everyday Americans—because this is not just a military issue.

It’s an American one.

We believe that a stronger Navy starts with a stronger nation, and Charting the Course: Voices That Matter is our call to action.

Final Word

Let’s be clear again—this is systemic. And if we don’t act now, the damage will only deepen.

We must rebuild American capability—not just in ships and steel, but in the servers and systems that power modern warfare and strategic readiness.

That means:

Holding Big Tech accountable

Strengthening our domestic tech workforce

Educating the public on the stakes—because the next war won’t wait

👉 Join us at StrongerNavy.org Together, we can strengthen what they stand for.  Sign up for our free course, Charting the Course -Voices that Matter by linking here. 

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What China Can’t Copy: Why the U.S. Navy Remains a Force for Good

Bill Cullifer, Founder
Bill Cullifer, Founder

Introduction
As Director of Americans for a Stronger Navy and a former U.S. Navy destroyer sailor, I’ve seen firsthand what makes our Navy exceptional. I’ve also seen how easy it can be to feel discouraged. Budget constraints, shipbuilding delays, political noise—it all adds up. And in the background, China continues its rapid naval expansion, flexing not only hardware but strategy.

But let me say this clearly: while China may build more ships, what it can’t copy—or steal—is the heart of our Navy. What it can’t replicate is what truly gives our sea power its edge.

The U.S. Navy’s Real Strength
The strength of the U.S. Navy isn’t just in ships.
It’s in people.
People who are free to think, free to speak up, and free to challenge decisions in pursuit of doing what’s right.

It’s in trust—earned over decades with allies who sail beside us, not because they’re forced to, but because they believe in the mission.
It’s in adaptability—the kind that comes from decentralized thinking, empowered leaders, and a culture where initiative is encouraged.

Why Authoritarian Systems Can’t Keep Up
Xi Jinping has purged officers, scripted wargames, and centralized power in ways that might look like control from the outside. But inside? It creates brittleness. Fear stifles creativity. Commanders hesitate. Subordinates follow orders instead of leading.

You can’t purge your way to innovation.
You can’t centralize your way to resilience.
And you certainly can’t program moral courage.

Our Navy’s Moral Advantage
What the U.S. Navy brings to the world stage is more than might—it’s purpose. We don’t sail to conquer. We sail to deter. To protect global trade. To keep the sea lanes open. To reassure allies. To render aid when disaster strikes. And yes—to show up when it matters most.

That’s why our Navy is trusted.
That’s why it matters.
And that’s why no regime—no matter how disciplined, industrialized, or well-funded—can ever truly match us.

Why Americans Should Care
In a world where authoritarian states are rewriting the rules, America needs a Navy that’s not just large—but good. Not just present—but trusted.
And that trust doesn’t come from numbers. It comes from what we stand for.

Final Thought
So yes—China may field more ships. But they’re missing the one thing you can’t mass-produce:
freedom.
And when the moment of crisis comes, that’s what will make the difference.

To support our mission and help educate the public on why a strong, principled U.S. Navy matters, visit StrongerNavy.org.
And be sure to check out our new educational series—featuring insights from veterans, historians, and national security experts—designed to help Americans understand the strategic, economic, and moral stakes of sea power in the 21st century.

Bill

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US Naval Posture and Operations in the Wake of Strikes on Iran’s Nuclear Program


At sea with USS The Sullivans (DDG 68)

US Naval Posture and Operations in the Wake of Strikes on Iran’s Nuclear Program on June 21, 2025, marked a significant shift in Operations in the Wake of Strikes on Iran’s Nuclear Program..

Washington’s regional posture, moving beyond indirect support to direct offensive action against Iranian sovereign territory. The primary objective, as articulated by President Donald Trump, was to “completely and fully obliterate” Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities, thereby neutralizing its capacity to develop nuclear weapons.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth further clarified that the mission, codenamed “Operation Midnight Hammer,” was not aimed at regime change but constituted a “precision operation to neutralize the threats… posed by the Iranian nuclear program”. This decisive action followed over a week of intense Israeli strikes targeting Iran’s air defenses, offensive missile capabilities, and nuclear infrastructure. Notably, the US intervention came swiftly after President Trump’s publicly stated “two-week deadline” for a decision, with strikes commencing just two days later. This swift action, following a period of apparent deliberation, suggests a deliberate strategic deception, a “ruse to lull the Iranians into a sense of complacency,” as speculated by retired Navy Admiral James G. Stavridis. The detailed execution of Operation Midnight Hammer, which involved decoys and extensive misdirection, further substantiates this approach, highlighting a sophisticated military strategy that prioritizes surprise and operational security. This tactical maneuver underscores a willingness to integrate psychological warfare into strategic planning, potentially setting a precedent for future engagements and demonstrating a keen understanding of Iranian strategic calculations.

Operation Midnight Hammer: The US Strikes on Iran’s Nuclear Program

The US military operation, officially designated “Operation Midnight Hammer,” was a meticulously planned and executed series of precision strikes against critical components of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. The targets included three of Iran’s most significant nuclear facilities: Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan. Fordo, notably, is recognized as Iran’s most fortified nuclear site, constructed deep within a mountain, approximately 80 to 90 meters underground.

Initial assessments of the damage varied significantly. While President Trump asserted that the facilities were “completely and totally obliterated” , Pentagon officials, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Dan Caine, offered a more cautious evaluation, stating that the sites sustained “severe damage” and that a “final battle damage assessment would take time”. Conversely, Iran’s National Nuclear Safety System Center and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported “no signs of contamination” or “no increase in off-site radiation levels” at the affected locations. An Al Jazeera official further claimed that the US Iran conflict, US Navy, Iran nuclear program, Operation Midnight Hammer, submarine strikes, Tomahawk missiles, GBU-57 MOPs, Strait of Hormuz, Middle East security, Iranian retaliation, Carrier Strike Group, US military presence, geopolitical implications, naval strategy, expert analysis, General Kenneth McKenzie, General Michael Kurilla, Admiral James Stavridis, Admiral Robert Natter, Bryan Clark, Seth G. Jones, Michael Eisenstadt, Mohammed Albasha, Jonathan Schanzer, Andrea Stricker, Captain Brent Sadler, Persian Gulf, Red Sea, Fordo, Natanz, Isfahan, asymmetric warfare, global oil markets, deterrence, US foreign policy, international relations, regional stability.

Weaponry and Operational Sophistication
The operation showcased the deployment of highly advanced weaponry, marking a significant milestone in military capabilities. The primary ordnance used were GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs), 30,000-pound (13,500-kilogram) bunker-buster bombs, which saw their first combat deployment during Operation Midnight Hammer. Reports indicated that six B-2 Spirit bombers were responsible for dropping up to 12 MOPs on the Fordo facility.
Complementing the aerial assault, approximately 30 Tomahawk cruise missiles were launched from US Navy submarines, targeting the Natanz and Isfahan nuclear sites. These missiles, known for their long-range precision and deep land attack capabilities, travel at high subsonic speeds and extremely low altitudes, employing mission-tailored guidance systems for evasive flight paths. The coordinated strike sequence involved submarine-launched Tomahawks hitting surface infrastructure at Isfahan before the B-2 bombers delivered their MOP payloads on Fordo and Natanz, demonstrating a multi-layered and synchronized attack strategy.
The execution of “Operation Midnight Hammer” was characterized by extreme secrecy and elaborate deception tactics. Seven B-2 Spirit bombers initiated the mission from Whiteman Air Force Base, Missouri, embarking on an 18-hour flight. A decoy formation of B-2s was dispatched westward into the Pacific, while the actual strike package proceeded quietly eastward with minimal communications, a strategy designed to maintain surprise. The operation involved a vast array of over 125 US aircraft, including fourth and fifth-generation fighters and dozens of aerial refueling tankers, all contributing to the complex maneuver. High-speed suppression weapons were employed to ensure the safe passage of the strike package. Remarkably, no US aircraft were reportedly fired upon during the mission, and Iran’s air defense systems failed to detect the incoming bombers, a testament to the effectiveness of the stealth and deception tactics employed. The strikes were conducted in full coordination with Israel, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu commending President Trump’s decision, asserting that the US “has done what no other country on earth could do”.

This operation serves as a powerful demonstration of the US’s unique “deep strike” capability. The emphasis on MOPs and their capacity to penetrate deeply buried, heavily fortified targets underscores a military advantage that few, if any, other nations possess. As Bryan Clark of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) asserted, “Only the US Has the Capabilities to Take Out Iran’s Nuclear Program”. This capability reshapes the strategic calculus for states pursuing clandestine nuclear programs, indicating that even deeply buried facilities are not invulnerable. The operation also highlights a sophisticated integration of multi-domain warfare and deception. The detailed accounts of “Operation Midnight Hammer” reveal a seamless coordination of air, naval, cyber, and space assets. This multi-domain integration, coupled with advanced operational security and strategic deception, suggests that future high-value strikes will likely involve similar complex planning, making them exceedingly difficult for adversaries to predict or counter.

The effectiveness of the strikes and their long-term implications for Iran’s nuclear program remain a subject of debate. While President Trump declared “obliteration,” the more cautious language from Pentagon officials, referring to “severe damage” , and Iran’s insistence that its nuclear work would not be stopped , point to differing interpretations. Experts like Jonathan Schanzer believe “the nuclear program is no longer” , yet Andrea Stricker cautions that “Tehran’s program is likely set back by years… which means more work ahead”. Michael Eisenstadt of The Washington Institute similarly suggests that a preventive attack “likely won’t be a one-off but rather the opening round of a lengthy campaign”. This divergence in assessments indicates that while the physical infrastructure may be severely damaged, the “knowledge gain” and human capital of Iran’s nuclear program likely persist. Consequently, the long-term success of “prevention” will necessitate sustained pressure, continuous intelligence gathering, and the credible threat of further action, potentially leading to a prolonged period of both overt and covert operations rather than a singular, decisive blow.

The US Navy’s Role and Force Posture
The United States Navy played a pivotal and multifaceted role in the recent strikes and continues to maintain a robust and adaptive posture in the Middle East, responding to heightened regional tensions.

Submarine Operations

A critical, covert component of Operation Midnight Hammer involved US Navy submarines launching approximately 30 Tomahawk land-attack missiles. These missiles specifically targeted the Natanz and Isfahan nuclear sites. Although the specific submarine was not publicly identified, the USS Georgia (SSGN-729), an Ohio-class guided-missile submarine capable of fielding over 150 Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles (TLAMs), had entered the region in September. Speculation points strongly to an Ohio-class submarine being involved in these strikes. The timing of these submarine-launched Tomahawks was strategically significant, striking surface infrastructure targets at Isfahan before the B-2 bombers dropped their payloads on Fordo and Natanz, indicating a precisely coordinated, multi-layered attack sequence designed to maximize impact and surprise.
The deployment of submarines for these strikes underscores their unique advantage as covert, high-impact strike platforms. Unlike manned bomber aircraft, submarines can approach targets undetected, providing a crucial element of surprise and significantly reducing the risk to personnel. This strategic preference for leveraging stealth and underwater capabilities for initial or complementary strikes against high-value targets reinforces the submarine fleet’s role as a potent and survivable component of the US’s global power projection. This capability complicates adversary defense planning by introducing an unpredictable vector of attack, potentially leading to increased investment in and reliance on such platforms for future conflicts.

Surface Fleet Presence and Strategic Deployments

Beyond the covert submarine operations, the US Navy maintains a substantial and strategically positioned surface fleet presence across the Middle East. Reports indicate that American warships are actively engaged in shooting down Iranian ballistic missiles targeting Israel, with vessels like the USS The Sullivans and USS Arleigh Burke having launched defensive strikes. The USS Thomas Hudner has since joined The Sullivans for continued defensive operations.
Table 1: Key US Navy Assets and Locations (Post-Strike)

Vessel/Group NameTypeCurrent/Recent LocationPrimary Role in Conflict
USS Carl Vinson CSGAircraft Carrier Strike GroupNorth Arabian SeaSecurity for US troops/bases in Gulf of Oman/Persian Gulf
USS Nimitz CSGAircraft Carrier Strike GroupHeading west from Indo-Pacific, arriving soonScheduled to relieve Carl Vinson, potential overlap
USS The Sullivans (DDG-68)Guided-Missile DestroyerEastern MediterraneanShooting down Iranian ballistic missiles for Israel
USS Thomas Hudner (DDG-116)Guided-Missile DestroyerEastern MediterraneanJoined The Sullivans for defense strikes
USS Arleigh Burke (DDG-51)Guided-Missile DestroyerEastern Mediterranean (moved away)Shooting down Iranian ballistic missiles for Israel
USS Forrest Sherman (DDG-98)Guided-Missile DestroyerRed SeaGeneral presence, maritime security
USS Truxtun (DDG-103)Guided-Missile DestroyerRed SeaGeneral presence, maritime security
USS Paul Ignatius (DDG-117)Guided-Missile DestroyerMediterranean SeaBallistic missile defense
USS Oscar Austin (DDG-79)Guided-Missile DestroyerMediterranean SeaBallistic missile defense
Ohio-class guided-missile submarine (e.g., USS Georgia SSGN-729)Guided-Missile SubmarineUS Central Command AORTomahawk missile launch platform
The USS Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group (CSG) has been operating in the North Arabian Sea, strategically positioned to provide security for US troops and bases along the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf. Concurrently, the USS Nimitz CSG, long scheduled to relieve the Carl Vinson, is transiting from the Indo-Pacific and is expected to arrive in the region by the end of the month, potentially leading to a temporary overlap of the two carrier groups. This marks a rare occurrence, with two carriers operating simultaneously in the region for the second time this year.
In terms of guided-missile destroyers, the USS The Sullivans (DDG-68) and USS Arleigh Burke (DDG-51) have been actively engaged in shooting down Iranian ballistic missiles targeting Israel in the Eastern Mediterranean. The USS Thomas Hudner (DDG-116) has since joined The Sullivans for continued defensive strikes, while the Arleigh Burke has repositioned. Additionally, the USS Forrest Sherman (DDG-98) and USS Truxtun (DDG-103) are positioned in the Red Sea , and five ballistic missile defense ships, including USS Arleigh Burke, USS Thomas Hudner, USS The Sullivans, USS Paul Ignatius (DDG-117), and USS Oscar Austin (DDG-79), are stationed in the Mediterranean Sea. Overall, the US has increased its troop presence in the Middle East to approximately 40,000, up from a typical 30,000, with bases on heightened alert.
This significant re-prioritization of Middle East naval assets is evident in the deployment of a second aircraft carrier and the movement of naval vessels from potentially vulnerable locations like Bahrain. Bahrain, in particular, is home to the U.S. Navy’s Mideast-based 5th Fleet and has long been identified as a potential target for Iran. This shift occurs despite previous Pentagon efforts to focus on countering China in the Indo-Pacific. The increased naval presence signals a clear commitment to deterring Iranian aggression and protecting US interests in the Middle East, even if it entails potentially diluting focus on other strategic theaters. This could lead to a sustained, elevated naval presence, increasing operational tempo and potentially straining resources in the long term.
The strategic implications of these naval deployments are profound. The increased presence restricts operational flexibility for Iran and necessitates a greater US naval presence in critical strategic waterways. The US 5th Fleet, headquartered in Bahrain, serves as a vital command center for naval operations across the Persian Gulf, Arabian Sea, and Red Sea, playing a crucial role in safeguarding the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. This headquarters is now considered among the most likely Iranian targets. Bryan Clark has observed that US carriers have been operating less frequently within the confined waters of the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, instead spending more time in the broader Arabian Sea, a tactical adjustment in response to Iran’s increased capability to attack large surface ships. This adjustment highlights the enhanced maritime security challenges in these critical chokepoints, where the US Navy faces simultaneous and complex threats. The risk of multi-theater conflicts with significant economic consequences for global energy and trade is thus heightened, demanding continuous adaptation of naval strategy and force protection measures.
Iranian Response and Retaliation Threats
Iran has reacted with strong condemnation and explicit threats of retaliation following the US strikes, signaling potential repercussions for regional stability and global maritime security.
Official Iranian Statements and Damage Assessment Claims
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi vehemently condemned the strikes as a “grave violation of the UN Charter, international law and the NPT,” warning of “everlasting consequences” and asserting that Iran “reserves all options” to retaliate. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian echoed this sentiment, condemning the US as the “primary instigator of the Zionist regime’s hostile actions”. While Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization confirmed the attacks on Fordo, Isfahan, and Natanz, it insisted that its nuclear work would not be halted.
In a counter-narrative to US claims of “obliteration,” Iran’s National Nuclear Safety System Center and the IAEA reported “no signs of contamination” or “no increase in off-site radiation levels” at the targeted sites. An Al Jazeera official further claimed that the Fordo facility had been “long evacuated” and sustained no irreversible damage. This information warfare component underscores the regime’s efforts to manage both domestic and international perceptions of the strikes’ impact.
Threats of Retaliation Against US Interests
Tehran has overtly threatened retaliation against US interests in the region , with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warning of “irreparable damage”. Iran has explicitly named at least 19 US bases across the Gulf as potential targets, including the critical 5th Fleet Headquarters in Bahrain.
A significant concern revolves around Iran’s potential disruption of critical global shipping lanes. Iran’s Parliament reportedly approved a measure to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint through which approximately 20% of global oil and gas demand flows. The final decision, however, rests with Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. Iran has previously threatened to deploy up to 6,000 naval mines and speedboats in the Strait of Hormuz, demonstrating a clear intent to disrupt maritime traffic. The multinational, US-led Combined Maritime Forces’ JMIC information center has categorized the threat to US-associated commercial shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden as “high” following the strikes.
Proxy Group Activities
Iranian-backed proxy groups pose a significant threat to US interests. Houthi forces in Yemen have explicitly warned they would resume attacks on US ships in the Red Sea if Washington joined the bombing campaign against Iran. Their military has unequivocally stated its intent to attack US ships. Similarly, Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq has issued warnings of attacks on US interests and military bases in the region. Mohammed Albasha, an expert on Yemen, noted that “Now that the U.S. has struck Iran, I believe the Houthis, Kataib Hezbollah, and other Iranian-backed armed groups are most likely to attack U.S. interests”. He cautioned that “We have entered uncharted territory tonight, and nothing can be ruled out”. General Michael “Erik” Kurilla also highlighted that Iranian-backed militias had conducted approximately 200 attacks targeting US positions in Iraq and Syria between October 2023 and November 2024.
Iran’s strategic dilemma becomes apparent in its response. While its rhetoric signals a strong intent to retaliate, assessments from figures like Gen. McKenzie suggest that Iran’s conventional ballistic missile and drone force “has been exposed as hollow” , and its primary proxy, Lebanese Hezbollah, has been “decapitated”. This indicates a degraded conventional capability, implying Iran will likely rely on asymmetric warfare and its proxy networks for retaliation, as emphasized by Albasha. This means the immediate threat to US naval assets and personnel in the region is less from a direct, conventional military confrontation and more from diffuse, non-state actor attacks, cyber operations, or maritime harassment in critical chokepoints. This necessitates a shift in US force protection and deterrence strategies to counter actors operating in the “gray zone” between peace and war, a concept explored by Michael Eisenstadt.
The threats to close the Strait of Hormuz are not merely military but primarily economic. As 20-30% of global seaborne oil passes through this waterway, any disruption would trigger significant global economic shockwaves, impacting oil prices and shipping costs. Iran understands that its most potent leverage against the US and its allies may not be direct military confrontation but economic disruption. This places immense pressure on the US Navy’s 5th Fleet, whose primary mission includes safeguarding freedom of navigation in these waters. The potential for simultaneous maritime threats in both the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz further complicates US naval strategy and could necessitate difficult choices regarding resource allocation and escalation management.
Finally, Iran’s immediate downplaying of damage and claims of “no contamination” , coupled with efforts to control information internally through internet blackouts and the detention of journalists’ family members , reflect a strong internal narrative control effort. This aligns with Seth G. Jones’ analysis of Iran’s “soft war” and information campaigns. This internal vulnerability could become a target for future “gray zone” operations, aiming to destabilize the regime through information warfare or by exacerbating internal frustrations.
Expert Perspectives on the Conflict and Naval Implications
Leading military and strategic experts offer diverse and often nuanced insights into the recent US strikes, Iran’s capabilities, and the broader implications for naval strategy and regional stability.
Table 2: Notable Expert Commentary on US-Iran Naval Dynamics
Expert NameAffiliationKey Statement/InsightSource
————
Gen. Kenneth “Frank” McKenzie (Ret.)Former CENTCOM CommanderTrump’s previous actions taught Iranians he “was not afraid to employ military power.” Threatening the nuclear program is key to threatening the regime. Iran’s missile/drone force “exposed as hollow.” Underground launch facilities are easier targets than deep nuclear sites. US basing strategy “outdated.” Iranians are “master negotiators.”
Gen. Michael “Erik” KurillaCENTCOM HeadProvided “wide range of options” for strikes. Continuously assesses US posture and risk. Iran’s regional domination cannot be realized if regional states integrate with US. US is “transitioning from security guarantor to security integrator.”
Adm. James G. Stavridis (Ret.)Former Supreme US Commander in EuropeTrump’s two-week deadline might be a “very clever ruse to lull the Iranians into a sense of complacency.”
Adm. Robert Natter (Ret.)Retired US Navy AdmiralIran has mines in Strait of Hormuz and missiles for US ships/sites; expects asymmetric response.
Bryan ClarkCenter for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA)“Only the US Has the Capabilities to Take Out Iran’s Nuclear Program.” Iran is “weaker and more vulnerable than it has been in decades.” US carriers operate less in Persian Gulf due to Iranian anti-ship capabilities. Iran could pull off “complex attack” causing damage/casualties.
Seth G. JonesCenter for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)Focuses on defense strategy, military operations, irregular warfare. Authored “Three Dangerous Men: Russia, China, Iran, and the Rise of Irregular Warfare.” US unprepared for irregular warfare, needs to leverage commercial sector. Iran engages in “soft war” and information campaigns.
Michael EisenstadtThe Washington InstitutePreventive attack likely “opening round of a lengthy campaign.” Iran would prioritize ballistic missiles for nuclear delivery. Believes Iran would use nuclear weapons only in extremis.
Mohammed AlbashaBasha Report (Yemen expert)Houthis, Kataib Hezbollah, and other Iranian-backed groups are “most likely to attack U.S. interests.” Expects “symbolic retaliation rather than full-scale escalation,” but “nothing can be ruled out.”
Jonathan SchanzerFoundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD)“The nuclear program is no longer.”
Andrea StrickerFDDIran’s program “likely set back by years… which means more work ahead.” US/Israel need to ensure uranium stockpiles/centrifuges are recovered/destroyed.
Captain Brent SadlerHeritage Foundation“Iran’s regime seems unable to change its tact, and is driving headlong into even more punishing attacks from USA. It is in fact a clear demonstration (if one needed) of the bloodthirsty worldview of the mullahs running Iran. The people of Iran have long been dissatisfied with the religious fanatics and its IRGC muscle, any crack in the regime’s brutality could rapidly see its demise – not regime change from outside but by Iranian people power.”
Perspectives from Former CENTCOM Commanders
General Kenneth “Frank” McKenzie (Ret.), who commanded US Central Command (CENTCOM) from 2019 to 2022, possesses deep familiarity with the Iranian threat. He posits that President Trump’s previous forceful actions have instilled in Iranians the understanding that he “was not afraid to employ military power”. McKenzie maintains that “threatening the nuclear program is a key element of any threat to the regime”. He assessed Iran’s ballistic missile and drone force as “exposed as hollow” following its unsuccessful attacks on Israel. McKenzie also suggested that “underground launch facilities are much easier to target than the deep nuclear sites”. He cautioned that the “window” for effective strikes “will not stay open forever,” as Iran will eventually replace air defenses and further harden its nuclear sites. Furthermore, McKenzie criticized the current US basing strategy in the Middle East as “outdated and poorly positioned to meet the central threat in the region: Iran,” advocating for a more flexible western basing network. He also noted that while “the Iranians aren’t particularly effective fighters, they are master negotiators”.
General Michael “Erik” Kurilla, the current head of CENTCOM, is known for his hardline stance on Iran and his advocacy for aggressive military action. He confirmed having provided “a wide range of options” to the administration for strikes on Iran’s nuclear program. Kurilla emphasized the continuous assessment and adjustment of US posture and risk, stating that Iran’s goal of regional domination “cannot be realized if the region’s states continue to expand integration with each other and deepen partnership with the United States”. He also highlighted the US’s transition “from security guarantor to security integrator” in the Middle East.
Commentary from Retired US Navy Admirals
Retired Navy Admiral James G. Stavridis, former Supreme US Commander in Europe, speculated prior to the strikes that President Trump’s two-week deadline might have been a “very clever ruse to lull the Iranians into a sense of complacency”. Retired US Navy Admiral Robert Natter, commenting on the strikes, discussed Iran’s military capabilities, including its capacity to plant mines in the Strait of Hormuz and fire missiles at US ships and land sites, generally acknowledging Iran’s potential for asymmetric responses.
Analysis from Leading Defense Think Tanks
Bryan Clark, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA), asserts that “Only the US Has the Capabilities to Take Out Iran’s Nuclear Program”. He believes Iran is “weaker and more vulnerable than it has been in decades”. Clark noted that US carriers have been operating less frequently in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, spending more time in the Arabian Sea, as a direct response to Iran’s increased capability to attack large ships. He cautioned that Iran “might be able to pull off a complex attack that could degrade U.S. air defenses enough to get a couple of missiles through. It might not sink a ship, but it would certainly cause a lot damage and casualties and be a big public relations coup for the Iranians”.
Seth G. Jones, President of the Defense and Security Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), focuses on defense strategy, military operations, and irregular warfare. He authored “Three Dangerous Men: Russia, China, Iran, and the Rise of Irregular Warfare”. Jones highlights the US’s unpreparedness for the evolving nature of irregular warfare and the necessity of leveraging the commercial sector for capabilities such as battlefield awareness, unmanned systems, and influence operations against adversaries like Iran. He also points to Iran’s engagement in “soft war” tactics and information campaigns.
Michael Eisenstadt, the Kahn Senior Fellow and director of The Washington Institute’s Military and Security Studies Program, specializes in Persian Gulf and Arab-Israeli security affairs and nuclear proliferation. In his work “Attacking Iran’s Nuclear Program: The Complex Calculus of Preventive Action,” he argues that a preventive attack will likely be “the opening round of a lengthy campaign” rather than a one-off event. Eisenstadt suggests that if Iran were to acquire nuclear weapons, it would prioritize ballistic missiles as its primary delivery system due to their survivability and penetration capabilities. He believes Iran would only use nuclear weapons in extremis, if the survival of the Islamic Republic were directly threatened.
Captain Brent Sadler, a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation, has weighed in on the strategic importance of targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities. He noted that Fordo, being “roughly 80 to 90 meters inside of a mountain,” is the “hardest target to hit” and requires American strikes with specialized weaponry like the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, delivered by heavy bombers such as the B-2. Sadler also expressed hope for a peaceful resolution, suggesting that if the Iranian people “enact a regime change,” Fordo could be “taken peacefully and disbanded with the IAEA on the ground watching it happen in real time”.
The collective expert commentary reveals an enduring debate regarding whether the recent strikes constitute a “decisive blow” or merely the beginning of a “protracted campaign.” While President Trump and some analysts like Jonathan Schanzer suggest the nuclear program is “obliterated” or “over” , more nuanced perspectives from Pentagon officials and think tank experts like Andrea Stricker and Michael Eisenstadt indicate a significant setback, not a definitive end. Eisenstadt’s framing of the attack as the “opening round of a lengthy campaign” underscores the strategic uncertainty surrounding the long-term impact. This implies that policymakers must prepare for a sustained effort to counter Iran’s nuclear ambitions, requiring ongoing intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) to detect rebuilding efforts , continuous diplomatic pressure, and the credible threat of further action. The “decisive blow” narrative, while politically appealing, may obscure the need for a more enduring and complex strategy.
Furthermore, these expert analyses illuminate the evolving nature of deterrence in the Middle East. General McKenzie’s observations on Trump’s willingness to use military power and General Kurilla’s focus on “security integration” suggest a shift in US deterrence strategy. However, the persistent threats from Iranian proxies and Bryan Clark’s warnings about complex asymmetric attacks indicate that traditional military deterrence against a state actor may not fully address the “gray zone” tactics employed by Iran and its proxies. This necessitates that the US Navy and broader military adapt its deterrence posture to address both conventional and asymmetric threats. This involves not only maintaining superior firepower but also developing capabilities to counter drones, mines, and missile attacks from non-state actors, as well as enhancing regional partnerships for integrated defense. The vulnerability of US bases and naval assets to such attacks requires a re-evaluation of force protection and basing strategies.
Finally, the interplay of military action and diplomatic leverage is a recurring theme. Vice President JD Vance’s statements about the strikes creating an environment for a “reset” of relations and an “opportunity for the Iranians to take the smart path” towards talks directly contrast with Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi’s assertion that the strikes have “blown up any possibility of diplomacy”. This highlights a fundamental disagreement on the role of military force in facilitating diplomacy. General McKenzie’s observation that Iranians are “master negotiators” who will “play for time” adds another layer of complexity. The military action, while intended to degrade Iran’s capabilities, simultaneously complicates diplomatic pathways. The US appears to be operating from a position of “peace through strength” , attempting to compel Iran back to the negotiating table from a weakened position. However, Iran’s strong condemnation and threats suggest a hardening of its stance, potentially making a diplomatic resolution more elusive in the short term. The long-term outcome will depend on whether military pressure can genuinely compel a shift in Iranian strategic calculus or merely entrench defiance.
Broader Geopolitical and Economic Implications
The US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities have generated ripple effects that extend far beyond immediate military engagements, impacting global markets and the strategic balance across the Middle East.
Impact on Global Oil Markets and Maritime Security
The intensifying hostilities are poised to significantly affect global oil markets. Iran’s repeated threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping corridor, would have profound consequences, leading to substantial increases in insurance premiums and costlier rerouting of oil shipments. Concurrently, the ongoing threat of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea could further disrupt shipping, elevate costs for global logistics companies, and diminish the strategic impact of Western naval forces in the region. The US thus faces simultaneous maritime threats in two strategically vital waterways: the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. Beyond maritime trade, the conflict has already impacted air travel, with British Airways canceling flights to the UAE and Qatar and diverting a Dubai-bound airliner. Israel also responded by closing its airspace.
This situation heralds a “new normal” of regional instability and supply chain vulnerability. The direct US intervention and Iranian threats to critical chokepoints indicate that the Middle East is entering a prolonged period of elevated instability. The rerouting of maritime traffic around the Cape of Good Hope and flight cancellations are immediate indicators of this new reality. Global energy and trade markets will likely experience sustained volatility and increased costs. Businesses and governments reliant on these routes will need to factor in higher insurance premiums, longer transit times, and potential disruptions, leading to a re-evaluation of global supply chain resilience and diversification strategies. This conflict, therefore, has far-reaching economic consequences that extend well beyond the immediate region.
Evolving Strategic Balance and Deterrence Posture
The direct involvement of the US signals a significant shift in Washington’s posture, increasing the likelihood of sustained Iranian retaliation against US personnel, assets, and allies in the region. In response, the US military has deployed additional fighter jets and refueling tankers to the region, and bases are on heightened alert. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that the operation’s scope was “intentionally limited,” intended to send a specific message. General Kurilla emphasized that the US is “transitioning from security guarantor to security integrator” in the Middle East, necessitating a “sufficient and a sustainable posture” and improved foreign military sales to partners. Bryan Clark notes that Iran is “weaker and more vulnerable than it has been in decades,” with its proxies suffering major losses and expended missile inventories. The conflict presents significant geopolitical and economic risks, particularly in the energy, shipping, and security sectors, requiring ongoing monitoring and readiness for unforeseen circumstances.
Outlook for De-escalation or Further Conflict
The prospects for de-escalation remain precarious. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed grave alarm, warning of a “dangerous escalation” and a “growing risk that this conflict could rapidly get out of control — with catastrophic consequences”. While UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer emphasized de-escalation and negotiating a solution, simultaneously moving military equipment to protect UK interests , US Vice President JD Vance stated that America has “no interest in boots on the ground” and does not fear a “protracted conflict,” viewing the attacks as an “opportunity for the Iranians to take the smart path” towards talks. However, Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi countered that the US attacks “will have everlasting consequences” and have “blown up any possibility of diplomacy”. Regional security experts like Mohammed Albasha anticipate “symbolic retaliation rather than full-scale escalation,” but also caution that “nothing can be ruled out”.
The challenge of de-escalation in this multi-actor conflict is substantial. Despite US assurances of “limited scope” and “no interest in protracted conflict” , and calls for de-escalation from international bodies, Iran’s strong rhetoric and its proxy network capabilities make rapid de-escalation difficult. The involvement of multiple state and non-state actors (Israel, US, UK, Iran, Houthis, Hezbollah) creates a complex web of interests and potential triggers. This conflict is highly susceptible to miscalculation and unintended escalation, where even “symbolic retaliation” could trigger further responses, leading to a tit-for-tat dynamic. The absence of direct communication channels between the US and Iran, coupled with differing interpretations of “deterrence” and “peace,” exacerbates this risk. International diplomacy remains crucial but faces significant hurdles in bridging the chasm created by direct military action.
Furthermore, the situation presents a paradox of Iranian weakness and asymmetric strength. While experts like Bryan Clark and General McKenzie assert that Iran is “weaker and more vulnerable than it has been in decades” in terms of conventional military capabilities , its capacity for asymmetric warfare through proxies and disruption of maritime chokepoints remains a significant threat. This creates a scenario where conventional military superiority does not guarantee security. Consequently, the US and its allies cannot rely solely on conventional military might to achieve their objectives or ensure regional stability. A comprehensive strategy must address Iran’s asymmetric capabilities, its proxy networks, and its willingness to leverage economic chokepoints. This requires not only military readiness but also robust intelligence, cyber defense, and diplomatic efforts to counter malign influence and de-escalate proxy conflicts.
Conclusion and Strategic Considerations
The US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities represent a critical juncture in Middle East security, marked by direct US military intervention and a heightened risk of regional escalation. The operation, “Midnight Hammer,” saw the US directly join Israel’s campaign against Iran’s nuclear program, employing advanced bunker-busting bombs and submarine-launched Tomahawk missiles against Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan. The US Navy’s submarine force played a critical, covert role in these precision strikes, demonstrating deep-strike capabilities. This, coupled with significant surface fleet deployments, including two Carrier Strike Groups and multiple destroyers, underscores a substantial increase in US naval presence and strategic focus on the Middle East.
In response, Iran has vowed retaliation against US interests and threatened to disrupt critical global shipping lanes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, through its own capabilities and proxy networks. Expert assessments regarding the long-term effectiveness of the strikes are mixed; while the facilities are severely damaged, analysts differ on whether this constitutes a definitive end to Iran’s nuclear ambitions or merely a significant setback that necessitates a protracted containment strategy.
Based on this analysis, several strategic considerations emerge:
  • Sustained Deterrence and Force Protection: The US must maintain a robust and adaptable force posture in the region, particularly for naval assets, to deter both conventional and asymmetric Iranian retaliation. This includes enhanced intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) to detect proxy activities and potential maritime threats. General Kurilla’s emphasis on continuous posture assessments and adjustments is crucial for mitigating risks to US forces and allies.
  • Navigating Maritime Chokepoints: The US Navy’s 5th Fleet must remain vigilant and prepared to ensure freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. This may necessitate the development of new operational concepts and reinforced international cooperation to counter Iran’s potential use of naval mines and fast boats, as well as Houthi missile and drone threats. The economic implications of any disruption must be thoroughly integrated into strategic planning.
  • Long-Term Nuclear Containment Strategy: The strikes have likely set back Iran’s nuclear program by years, but they do not eliminate the “knowledge gain”. A sustained, multi-pronged strategy involving persistent intelligence gathering, diplomatic isolation, and strict multilateral sanctions will be necessary to prevent Iran from rebuilding or dispersing its nuclear infrastructure. Michael Eisenstadt’s view of a “lengthy campaign” should guide this enduring effort.
  • Managing Escalation Pathways: Given the high risk of unintended escalation in a multi-actor environment, clear de-escalation pathways and communication channels, even indirect ones, should be explored. The US should continue to emphasize the limited scope of its actions and its non-regime change objective to prevent miscalculation and unintended responses from Tehran.
  • Strengthening Regional Partnerships: Continued efforts to integrate regional partners into a collective security framework, as advocated by General Kurilla , are vital for shared defense and burden-sharing against Iranian aggression and its proxies. This collaborative approach enhances regional stability and distributes the burden of maintaining security in a volatile environment.
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Sea Power at Risk: What Every American Needs to Understand Now

Introduction 

Bill Cullifer, Founder
Bill Cullifer, Founder

Every once in a while, something stops you in your tracks — not because it surprises you, but because it sadly confirms what you already knew deep down. That happened to me again recently, thanks to an article my old shipmate, Captain David Lennon, USNR (Ret.), sent my way — part of an ongoing decade-long conversation we’ve been having about where naval power is headed, and how the world around us is changing faster than many realize.

The article described a sobering reality: the UK simulated an attack on its own air defenses, modeled after the first night of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It wasn’t pretty.

What it revealed — and what Captain Lennon and I both see with growing clarity — is that the way we think about air superiority, naval strength, and even national security itself must urgently evolve.

Old Assumptions Are Crumbling

For decades, we built our strategy around two key ideas:

  • That we could achieve and hold air superiority across an entire theater
  • That our home bases would remain safe while our forces projected power abroad

Today, both assumptions are under direct assault.

I’ll admit, I’m deeply nostalgic about the Navy.
There’s nothing quite like standing watch on a destroyer’s deck in the warm air of the Pacific, watching the sunset melt into the horizon, feeling the salt spray on your face, and the gentle roll of the ship beneath your boots.
You smell the ocean, you hear the distant call of seabirds, and you feel part of something bigger than yourself.

Every sailor should have the chance to experience the thrill of far-off ports, the pride of representing America abroad, and the awe of watching our best and brightest launch and land from the deck of a mighty aircraft carrier.
It’s a feeling that stays with you for life — a connection to the sea, to service, and to something that must be protected at all costs.

But the battlefield is changing.

Air superiority is no longer theater-wide — it’s trench to trench, rooftop to rooftop, fought with swarms of cheap drones, cyberattacks, and hypersonic weapons that can strike deep into what we once called the “rear areas.”
Even home bases can no longer be assumed safe.

As someone who later spent a career in the technology sector, I can tell you from firsthand experience: cyber threats are not hypothetical.
They’re already here — probing, stealing, destabilizing.

Maritime cyber vulnerabilities are now national vulnerabilities.

The Harsh Lesson of a Simulated Attack

The urgency of this shift was driven home by a recent UK military exercise.

In a simulation based on the first night of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the UK tested its own air defenses against a similar attack profile — and the results were sobering.

Despite having some of the world’s most advanced air and missile defense systems, the simulation exposed serious vulnerabilities at home bases, highlighting gaps that adversaries could exploit.

This exercise reinforced the grim reality: modern missile and drone attacks can overwhelm even advanced defenses if bases are not prepared for constant, layered threats.
No nation can afford to assume that domestic facilities are automatically safe anymore.

As Newsweek recently reported, the UK has invested nearly $48 million in a “world-leading synthetic training system” called Gladiator, designed to replicate real-life scenarios during exercises. However, the war-gaming exercise in question did not account for several of Russia’s next-generation weapons, such as the Zircon and Kinzhal hypersonic missiles — threats that have challenged even the most advanced air defense systems.

While Russia has claimed these hypersonic weapons are nearly impossible to intercept, Western analysts remain skeptical, and Ukraine has successfully shot down several using U.S.-made Patriot systems.

Planning for a Navy in a New Era

Here’s the hard part:

How do we plan and build the fleet we need if we don’t have the budget, the shipbuilders, or the industrial base ready to deliver it?

How do we harden our forward positions and our homeland if procurement cycles still move at peacetime speed, while threats evolve at wartime speed?

Efficiency matters.
Cost-effectiveness matters.
Dialogue matters.
High technology matters.

And urgency matters most of all. Whatever we do, we must hustle.

This is Why “Charting the Course” Matters
This is why we launched the Charting the Course education series at Americans for a Stronger Navy.

We’re not just presenting expert opinion — we’re inviting a national conversation about the future of sea power, economic security, and America’s place in the world.

Because the stakes couldn’t be higher.
Because being a maritime nation matters.
Because naval statecraft matters.
Because — despite what some may dismiss as a catchphrase — Peace Through Strength still matters.

We can’t afford to get this wrong.
We can’t afford silence, division, or delay.

A Final Word

Captain Lennon and I served together decades ago aboard a U.S. Navy destroyer, but our commitment to service never really ended.
Today, that service continues — through conversations like these, through sharing insights, and through rallying Americans to remember that sea power has always been at the heart of our security, prosperity, and peace.

We invite you to join us.

Charting the Course is open to all, free of charge, and designed to spark the kind of dialogue — and action — that America desperately needs right now.

Let’s move — together.

Sea power is America’s future — and it’s a future worth fighting for. Join the conversation today: Charting the Course

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Trump Signs Executive Order to Revitalize U.S. Shipbuilding

A Turning Point for America’s Maritime Strength

In a bold move aimed at restoring America’s maritime edge, President Donald Trump signed an executive order today (April 9, 2025) designed to revitalize the U.S. shipbuilding industry and reduce China’s growing control over the global shipping supply chain. The order calls for sweeping changes across trade, industry investment, and national security infrastructure—setting the stage for long-term renewal of America’s commercial and naval shipping capabilities.

What the Executive Order Includes

The new executive order establishes:

Maritime Security Trust Fund
A dedicated fund to provide stable, long-term investment in shipbuilding, shipyards, dry docks, and repair facilities. Potential funding sources include tariffs, fines, port fees, and other federal revenue streams.

Port Fees on Chinese-Linked Ships
Ships flagged by China or built in Chinese shipyards may soon face significant docking fees at U.S. ports. The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) is expected to finalize this remedy by mid-April. Allies will also be encouraged to implement similar restrictions.

Tariffs on Chinese-Made Cargo Equipment
The order directs the USTR to consider imposing tariffs on ship-to-shore cranes and cargo handling gear manufactured or assembled in China—or made with Chinese-controlled components anywhere in the world.

Enforcement of Harbor Maintenance Fees
To prevent workarounds, Homeland Security will crack down on companies trying to avoid U.S. fees by routing shipments through Mexico and Canada before transporting them across land borders.

Incentives for U.S. Shipyard Investment
The executive order includes provisions for incentivizing private sector investment in new or revitalized U.S. shipyards, commercial ship components, and critical maritime infrastructure.

Why Americans Should Care

The United States currently produces less than 1% of the world’s commercial ships—while China builds about 50%. In 1999, China’s share was just 5%. This trend has massive implications not just for economic competitiveness, but for national security and maritime logistics.

As President Trump put it:
“We used to build a ship a day, and now we don’t build a ship a year, practically. We have the capacity to do it.”

This executive order is more than policy—it’s a call to action.

Implications for the Navy

While the executive order does not explicitly mention the U.S. Navy, its impact on naval readiness and strategic capability is unmistakable. Revitalizing America’s commercial shipbuilding infrastructure strengthens the industrial base the Navy relies on for new construction, maintenance, and repairs. Investments in dry docks, skilled labor, and cargo handling capabilities bolster our ability to support fleet operations—especially in times of crisis.

Moreover, reducing reliance on Chinese-built shipping equipment and infrastructure directly supports U.S. naval strategy. It limits vulnerabilities in ports and logistics chains, while reinforcing America’s control over critical maritime assets. A stronger shipbuilding sector means a stronger Navy, even if it’s not named in the order.

Implications for Our Allies

The executive order sends a message to America’s allies: We are serious about maritime strength and expect partners to do the same. With Chinese-built vessels operating across global supply chains, coordinated action could limit strategic vulnerabilities and encourage diversified, allied-aligned shipping infrastructure.

A Statement from Americans for a Stronger Navy

“This executive order is a long-overdue step toward restoring our nation’s ability to build and maintain the ships we depend on for both commerce and defense. The Navy does not operate in a vacuum—it needs a healthy, resilient industrial base. America must lead again on the seas, not just militarily, but commercially. This is how we secure freedom of navigation, economic stability, and peace through strength.”
— Bill Cullifer, founder, Americans for a Stronger Navy

Your Voice Matters

This is our moment. Let’s celebrate the executive order—but keep pushing until America leads on the seas again. Congress must act, industry must respond, and Americans must stay engaged.

Sign up to be part of the movement. It’s free. A stronger Navy begins with a stronger nation.

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Shipbuilding, Repair, and Shore Support: Why SIOP Matters More Than Ever

Introduction

At this year’s Sea-Air-Space Expo, a powerful message came through loud and clear: shipbuilding and repair aren’t just logistics or budgeting issues—they are strategic priorities. With the U.S. Navy facing growing demands across the Indo-Pacific and beyond, the ability to maintain and sustain our fleet has never been more important. One of the most important announcements at #SAS2025 came from NAVFAC leadership, who shared critical updates on the Navy’s long-term infrastructure plan: the Shipyard Infrastructure Optimization Program (SIOP).

What Is SIOP? The Shipyard Infrastructure Optimization Program is the Navy’s comprehensive, decades-long effort to modernize its four public shipyards: Norfolk, Pearl Harbor, Portsmouth, and Puget Sound. These yards are essential to maintaining our nuclear-powered fleet, and many of their facilities date back a century or more. SIOP aims to upgrade dry docks, replace aging infrastructure, optimize layout and workflow, and improve productivity and quality of service for 37,000 shipyard workers.

Why This Matters Fleet readiness is impossible without reliable infrastructure. Every day a ship sits idle in maintenance delays is a day it can’t defend our interests. As Rear Adm. Dean VanderLey of NAVFAC stated at #SAS2025, shore infrastructure is the foundation of American maritime power. And without modern, capable shipyards, our ability to project sea power and maintain naval dominance is at risk.

Smart Construction, Smarter Strategy SIOP isn’t just about fixing what’s broken. It’s about doing things better. NAVFAC leaders highlighted new strategies like early contractor involvement, modular/offsite construction, and industrialized building techniques—all aimed at delivering faster results at lower cost. For example, the dry dock at Puget Sound Naval Shipyard will require twice the concrete used to build the Pentagon. That’s a massive, multiyear undertaking—and it shows the scale and urgency of the mission.

A Civilian-Military Partnership Shipyard revitalization is more than a military investment. It represents an opportunity for public-private collaboration, workforce development, and industrial revitalization. It’s a call to rebuild America’s maritime edge with the help of skilled labor, advanced engineering, and modern project delivery.

Conclusion: Time to Stay Focused At Americans for a Stronger Navy, we believe this is the kind of long-term, bipartisan initiative that can reset the trajectory of our Navy and our civilian maritime capability. Shipbuilding is strategy. Repair is readiness. And shore support is the glue that holds it all together.

Let’s make sure SIOP gets the support, oversight, and public awareness it deserves.

#StrongerNavy | StrongerNavy.org | #SAS2025 | #Shipbuilding | #SIOP | #NAVFAC | #SeaPower