Newsweek is reporting that Russia is continuing to fulfill its long-standing naval nuclear plan despite Vladimir Putin’s recent decision to withdraw from an international treaty. Russian shipbuilding corporation, Sevmash, will provide the Russian Navy with two new submarines, the Imperator Alexander III and the Krasnoyarsk, by the end of the year. The Imperator Alexander III is a Borei class submarine capable of carrying 16 Bulava intercontinental ballistic missiles. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, the submarines have improved weapon control systems, lower noise levels, and better systems for maneuvering and control at great depths. Meanwhile, the U.S. Navy’s ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) are focused on stealth and the precise delivery of nuclear warheads. The Ohio fleet has 14 SSBNs, each carrying up to 20 submarine-launched ballistic missiles. The U.S. Navy describes the SSBN’s strategic weapon as the Trident II D5 missile. The two Russian submarines are reportedly not related to Putin’s recent comments about nuclear proliferation or the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Iran and China join Russia in dredging Volga River, strengthening anti-Western alliance says reports
The Iran Marine Industrial Company is repairing a Russian ship that crashed into ice on the Volga River and is joining China in helping Russia dredge the Volga-Caspian Seaway Canal, further strengthening the emerging Moscow-Tehran axis, integrating Iran into the Russian-Chinese alliance, and threatening Ukraine. The involvement of China and Iran in the dredging project benefits Moscow’s ability to address bottlenecks, while allowing larger naval vessels from Russia’s Caspian Flotilla to transit to the Sea of Azov. The move will also counter Western influence and integrate Iran into the Russian-Chinese alliance in the military and economic spheres. The Kremlin’s decision to involve Iran in the dredging project will give Russia the advanced ability to project force westward more quickly. The author of the article is Paul Goble and it was published in Eurasia Daily Monitor and the Jamestown Foundation.
Russian suspension of nuclear agreement
MSNBC and CBS are reporting that Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on Tuesday that Moscow is suspending its participation in the New START treaty, the last remaining nuclear arms control pact with the United States. In response, Secretary of State Antony Blinken called Russia’s move “deeply unfortunate and irresponsible” and stated that the U.S. would be watching carefully to see what Russia does. Putin also said that Russia should stand ready to resume nuclear weapons tests if the U.S. does so, which would end a global ban on nuclear weapons tests that has been in place since the Cold War. Putin accused the U.S. and its NATO allies of openly declaring the goal of Russia’s defeat in Ukraine as the reason for suspending Russia’s obligations under New START. Credit to MSNBC and CBS for reporting this news.
China Announces Naval Exercises with Russia and South Africa
Bloomberg news reported on February 19, 2023, that China has announced plans to hold naval exercises with Russia and South Africa from February 20-27. The drills, which will involve a destroyer, a frigate, and a supply vessel, are intended to protect maritime economic activities and promote defense and security cooperation among BRICS members. The exercises will take place off the coasts of Durban and Richards Bay in South Africa. This announcement comes amid US warnings to China against providing lethal aid to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken claiming that the US has information suggesting China may be considering.
Russia Warship in South Africa
CNN reports that a Russian warship carrying hypersonic missiles arrived in a port on South Africa’s east coast to participate in a 10-day naval exercise in the Indian Ocean alongside South African and Chinese warships. The timing of the exercises, close to the anniversary of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, has led to public criticism from Western diplomats and risks backlash for the government in Pretoria. However, South Africa’s historical ties with Moscow run deep, and from a realpolitik standpoint, freezing out Russia or postponing the naval exercises may not be a smart choice for South Africa’s trade relations.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict Continues
Former US Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan and former Trump administration National Security Council adviser on Russia Dr. Fiona Hill were interviewed on Face the Nation regarding the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. The two agreed that sanctions were never the only tool available to address the crisis and that diplomacy and military support for Ukraine were also essential. They emphasized that other countries need to understand that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is not part of a great power competition but is instead a matter of helping Ukraine liberate itself. Both Hill and Sullivan also shared their concern that the conflict could lead to destabilization and aggression against other surrounding countries. Putin is expected to deliver a message that depicts the war in Ukraine as a great patriotic war to mobilize Russian support. President Biden will need to counter that narrative, not just in Europe.
China’s Support for Russia
US officials have warned allies at the Munich Security Conference that China may be increasing its support for Russia’s military according to press reports from CNN. The officials, who remain anonymous, have reported seeing “disturbing” trendlines indicating China wants to provide lethal military aid to Russia without being caught. They did not provide specific details but stated that the US has been concerned enough to share the intelligence with its allies. Secretary of State Antony Blinken reportedly raised the issue with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, during a meeting at the conference according to the news.