CNN reports that a Russian warship carrying hypersonic missiles arrived in a port on South Africa’s east coast to participate in a 10-day naval exercise in the Indian Ocean alongside South African and Chinese warships. The timing of the exercises, close to the anniversary of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, has led to public criticism from Western diplomats and risks backlash for the government in Pretoria. However, South Africa’s historical ties with Moscow run deep, and from a realpolitik standpoint, freezing out Russia or postponing the naval exercises may not be a smart choice for South Africa’s trade relations.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict Continues
Former US Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan and former Trump administration National Security Council adviser on Russia Dr. Fiona Hill were interviewed on Face the Nation regarding the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. The two agreed that sanctions were never the only tool available to address the crisis and that diplomacy and military support for Ukraine were also essential. They emphasized that other countries need to understand that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is not part of a great power competition but is instead a matter of helping Ukraine liberate itself. Both Hill and Sullivan also shared their concern that the conflict could lead to destabilization and aggression against other surrounding countries. Putin is expected to deliver a message that depicts the war in Ukraine as a great patriotic war to mobilize Russian support. President Biden will need to counter that narrative, not just in Europe.
China’s Support for Russia
US officials have warned allies at the Munich Security Conference that China may be increasing its support for Russia’s military according to press reports from CNN. The officials, who remain anonymous, have reported seeing “disturbing” trendlines indicating China wants to provide lethal military aid to Russia without being caught. They did not provide specific details but stated that the US has been concerned enough to share the intelligence with its allies. Secretary of State Antony Blinken reportedly raised the issue with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, during a meeting at the conference according to the news.