Introduction
Taiwan is a small island nation off the coast of China, with a population of about 23 million people and a land area of about 14,000 square miles. It is also one of the most important and contentious issues in global security, especially for the United States and its Navy.
Taiwan’s History and Status
Taiwan has a complex and contested history with China, which claims Taiwan as part of its territory and vows to reunify with it by force if necessary. Taiwan, on the other hand, has developed its own identity and democracy, and seeks to maintain its autonomy and sovereignty. The United States has been Taiwan’s main ally and protector since 1979, when it established the Taiwan Relations Act, which commits the United States to provide Taiwan with arms sales and assistance, and to help Taiwan defend itself against any threats or attacks.
However, the United States has also maintained a policy of strategic ambiguity on Taiwan, which means that it neither promises nor rules out military intervention in case of a Chinese attack. This policy is intended to deter both China and Taiwan from taking any provocative or unilateral actions that could destabilize the status quo and trigger a war. However, this policy also creates uncertainty and confusion for both sides, as well as for the United States itself.
Taiwan as a Tipping Point
In his recent speech at the Global Security Forum ’23, Professor James Holmes, a professor of strategy at the Naval War College and a nonresident fellow at the University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs, addressed the question of whether Taiwan will be a tipping point in global security. He defined a tipping point as a change of state that involves cause and effect and time. He used the metaphor of a boiling point to illustrate his definition, and he explained how human beings can regulate changes of state by adjusting the heat or pressure in a system.
He then applied his definition and metaphor to the case of Taiwan, which he considered to be a potential flashpoint between the United States and China. He argued that Taiwan is not yet at a tipping point, but it could be if certain conditions are met. He identified three conditions that could trigger a tipping point:
(1) China decides to use force to reunify with Taiwan;
(2) the United States decides to intervene militarily to defend Taiwan; and
(3) Taiwan decides to declare formal independence from China.
He analyzed each of these conditions and evaluated their likelihood and consequences. He concluded that none of them are very likely or desirable, but they are not impossible or unthinkable either. He warned that miscalculation, misperception, or miscommunication could lead to an escalation or a crisis that could push Taiwan over the tipping point. He also cautioned that domestic politics, public opinion, and media influence could affect the decision-making process of the actors involved.
How to Prevent or Manage Tipping Point
He then offered some recommendations on how to prevent or manage a tipping point in Taiwan. He suggested that the United States should maintain its strategic ambiguity on Taiwan, which means that it should neither promise nor rule out military intervention in case of a Chinese attack. He also advised that the United States should strengthen its deterrence and diplomacy vis-à-vis China, which means that it should bolster its military presence and capabilities in the region, as well as engage in dialogue and cooperation with China on areas of common interest. He also proposed that the United States should support Taiwan’s security and democracy, which means that it should provide arms sales and assistance to Taiwan, as well as encourage its participation in international organizations and forums.
Why Taiwan Matters For America’s Interests and Values
Why should Americans care about Taiwan? Because Taiwan matters for America’s interests and values, as well as for its Navy’s missions and objectives. Taiwan is an important economic partner and trading partner for the United States, with bilateral trade worth over $100 billion in 2020. Taiwan is also an important democratic ally and friend for the United States, sharing common ideals and principles such as freedom, human rights, and rule of law. Taiwan is also an important strategic partner and asset for the United States, helping to balance China’s power and influence in Asia-Pacific.
Why Taiwan Matters for America’s Navy
Taiwan is also crucial for America’s Navy, which has been operating in the western Pacific for over 70 years. The Navy’s role is to protect U.S. interests and allies in the region, as well as to ensure freedom of navigation and access to the global commons. The Navy’s presence is also meant to deter China from using force or coercion against its neighbors, especially Taiwan. The Navy’s capabilities are also essential for responding to any contingency or crisis involving Taiwan, whether it is humanitarian assistance or military intervention.
Taiwan is not only an island nation; it is also an idea worth defending. It represents what America stands for: democracy, liberty, and peace. It also represents what America needs: a strong Navy that can protect its interest and values around the world.
Conclusion
We are the Americans for a Stronger Navy and we advocate for Peace Through Strength. We believe that a strong navy is the best guarantee of peace and security in the maritime domain.
We believe that a strong Navy is the best deterrent against aggression and coercion by our adversaries. We also believe that a strong Navy is the best instrument of diplomacy and cooperation with our allies and partners.
We stand with our sailors and their families during this difficult time. We support them with our words and deeds. We thank them for their dedication and sacrifice. We hope that they will receive their due respect and reward soon.
We are the Americans for a Stronger Navy, and we say: “Don’t give up the ship!”
Source: 19FortyFive.com