Scarborough Shoal: Tiny Reef, Global Stakes

A Comprehensive Series by Americans for a Stronger Navy

By Bill Cullifer, Founder – Americans for a Stronger Navy

Introduction: Why We’re Launching This Series on Scarborough Shoal

What is Scarborough Shoal?

At first glance, it’s just a triangle-shaped reef in the South China Sea, roughly 120 nautical miles west of Luzon, Philippines. No buildings. No runway. No flag.

Scarborough Shoal, courtesy of the U.S. Navy.

But don’t let its humble appearance fool you.

Scarborough Shoal is one of the most contested flashpoints in the Indo-Pacific. This seemingly minor cluster of rocks and reefs sits at the heart of one of the world’s most vital sea lanes — and could very well be the next spark in a global conflict.

What Prompted This Series

We didn’t choose Scarborough Shoal at random. This series was prompted by a disturbing escalation in Chinese maritime aggression in the South China Sea — specifically at Scarborough Shoal, a small reef with outsized strategic consequences.

Recent satellite photo of Scarborough Shoal showing Chinese vessels surrounding the reef, with overlay graphics indicating vessel positions and types

Recent events that brought this to a head include:

  • A Chinese cutter and guided-missile destroyer collided during a botched blockade attempt of Philippine Coast Guard vessels ten nautical miles off Scarborough Shoal in August 2025.
  • USS Higgins (DDG-76) sailed within 12 nautical miles of Scarborough Shoal conducting a Freedom of Navigation Operation (FONOP) — the first known U.S. military operation in at least six years in these specific waters.
  • Chinese Coast Guard harassment of Philippine resupply missions.
  • Dumping of concrete blocks — a likely signal of future construction.
  • Swarming of the area by Chinese maritime militia vessels.

The Scarborough Shoal is quickly becoming a litmus test for Chinese expansionism and U.S. resolve.

Why Now: The Wake-Up Call

Scarborough Shoal lies just 120 nautical miles off the Philippine coast — well within their Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) — and even closer to America’s red lines. When China seized de facto control of the shoal in 2012, the U.S. stood back. Many viewed this as a strategic failure of deterrence.

Now, the world is witnessing the possibility of militarization of the reef — and direct confrontation with a U.S. ally. That makes this more than a regional issue. It’s a crisis in the making.

The 2012 Standoff: A Turning Point

In April 2012, Philippine authorities attempted to arrest Chinese fishermen operating illegally in the shoal. Chinese maritime surveillance ships intervened. A tense standoff ensued, lasting weeks. The U.S. brokered a deal: both sides would withdraw.

The Philippines kept its word. China didn’t.

Instead, China took control of Scarborough Shoal, effectively barring Filipino access ever since. They now patrol it with coast guard cutters, militia fishing boats, and surveillance drones — sometimes even water cannons. Construction may follow.

A Geopolitical Tinderbox in the Sea

The South China Sea is home to trillions of dollars in annual global trade. It’s also flush with resources: fish, gas, oil, and geostrategic leverage. China claims nearly all of it under its so-called “Nine-Dash Line” — a sweeping assertion that ignores international law and overrides the rights of Southeast Asian nations like the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia.

Scarborough Shoal, or Bajo de Masinloc as the Filipinos call it, lies within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ), as defined under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration definitively ruled that China’s sweeping claims in the South China Sea had no legal basis under international law.

China’s response? They ignored the ruling entirely and doubled down on their aggression.

My Perspective: This Isn’t Just a Reef

As a former Navy destroyer sailor from the 1970s, I understand how seemingly minor naval flashpoints can quickly spiral. I launched Americans for a Stronger Navy to bridge the gap between what’s happening on the water and what the American public knows.

When I began Americans for a Stronger Navy, I did so because I believed — and still believe — that Americans are not being told the full story.

Scarborough Shoal isn’t on the nightly news — but it should be.

This reef is about more than rocks and water. It’s about:

  • Sovereignty
  • International law
  • Access to critical trade routes
  • Maintaining a rules-based order
  • The failure of deterrence
  • The rise of maritime bullying
  • The fragility of global trade

And the uncomfortable question: Will America act, or will we retreat?

Why Americans Must Pay Attention

Most Americans have never heard of Scarborough Shoal, but they should. Here’s why it matters to you:

  • Over $3 trillion in trade passes through the South China Sea annually.
  • China is testing the boundaries of international law and Western will.
  • Scarborough is a potential trigger point for a wider conflict — even WWIII.
  • The U.S. Navy may be forced to act, and our sailors are on the front line.
  • Success here emboldens China’s tactics elsewhere — Taiwan Strait, East China Sea.
  • Control of Scarborough supports China’s broader Belt and Road Initiative and maritime silk road ambitions.

If you think a shoal doesn’t matter, consider this: $3.4 trillion in global trade flows through the South China Sea every year. China is attempting to rewrite the rules of international waters. And the U.S. Navy — your Navy — is the thin blue line standing in the way.

Coming Up in This Series

  • The history of Scarborough Shoal and how we got here
  • The 2012 U.S.-brokered standoff and its long-term impact
  • The 2016 international arbitration ruling and China’s defiance
  • China’s maritime militia and “gray zone” tactics
  • The importance of fishing rights, seabed minerals, and cable networks
  • Allied response frameworks: QUAD, AUKUS, and Philippines mutual defense commitments
  • The implications for the U.S., our allies, and our Navy
  • Economic warfare potential and leverage tactics
  • Technology, surveillance, and intelligence dimensions
  • WWIII scenarios — and what they could look like
  • Congressional and policy tools available (or missing)
  • What Americans know (or don’t) about this growing threat

Each post will build context and momentum — helping readers understand why this small reef could shape the future of American security strategy in Asia and beyond.

Join the Mission

Understanding Scarborough Shoal is understanding a fault line in today’s global order. This series isn’t just about sounding the alarm — it’s about equipping Americans with insight, history, and facts so we can rally support, demand accountability, and avoid miscalculation.

If we don’t understand where the storm is brewing, we won’t know when to take shelter — or when to stand our ground.

Scarborough Shoal may seem far away. But the values at stake — sovereignty, freedom of navigation, and deterrence — are right at our doorstep.

Not to inflame. Not to fearmonger. But to educate, illuminate, and inspire action.

Please follow along, share with others, and help us shine a spotlight on one of the most important — and most underreported — strategic flashpoints of our time.

Stay with us. Read. Share. Talk about it.

Because understanding this reef might just help us prevent the next war.

A Final Thought

If a reef you’ve never heard of could spark the next major war — dragging America and its sailors into the fight — doesn’t that make it worth understanding?

Let’s chart the course together.

That’s why we launched Charting the Course: Voices That Matter—a 24-part educational series breaking down how we got here, what went wrong, and what must happen next. Our goal is simple: educate the public, connect the dots, and build the support needed to close the readiness gap before it’s too late.

Let’s roll.

The AIRCAT Bengal MC: A Game-Changer in Naval Warfare


Introduction

The recent unveiling of the AIRCAT Bengal MC marks one of the most significant leaps in naval technology in recent years. Developed by Eureka Naval Craft in collaboration with Greenroom Robotics and ESNA Naval Architects, this 36-meter Surface Effect Ship (SES) blends cutting-edge speed, payload capacity, modularity, and autonomous operation. Capable of operating both crewed and uncrewed, the Bengal MC is designed to execute a wide range of missions—from launching Tomahawk cruise missiles to serving as a drone mothership—at a fraction of the cost of traditional warships. For a Navy seeking to maximize agility and lethality while controlling costs, the Bengal MC may represent a new model for maritime dominance.

Advanced Design and Capabilities

At the heart of the Bengal MC’s innovation is its SES hull, a hybrid between a hovercraft and a catamaran, which reduces drag and allows speeds exceeding 50 knots. It can carry up to 44 tons—enough for two 40-foot ISO modules—while maintaining a 1,000 nautical-mile operational range. This enables deployment to distant theaters without frequent refueling.

Mission versatility is a hallmark of the Bengal MC. Configurable for troop transport, landing support, electronic warfare, mine-laying or counter-mine operations, reconnaissance, and high-speed logistics, its modular construction allows the ship to be tailored for the task at hand. It’s equipped to launch Tomahawk cruise missiles and Naval Strike Missiles, providing a level of firepower that traditionally required much larger, more expensive ships.

Autonomy and Operational Flexibility

Powered by Greenroom Robotics’ Advanced Maritime Autonomy Software (GAMA), the Bengal MC is fully capable of autonomous operation, while still offering human-in-the-loop oversight. This system was validated through the Patrol Boat Autonomy Trial, ensuring reliability in complex maritime environments. Its ability to operate autonomously means it can be deployed into high-risk zones without putting sailors directly in harm’s way, while crewed missions remain an option for complex operations.

Efficiency and Strategic Value

The Bengal MC is also designed for fuel efficiency and reduced operating costs, making it an attractive option for navies needing maximum capability per dollar spent. Its ability to replace or augment larger surface combatants with smaller, faster, more adaptable ships could reshape the way the U.S. Navy and allied forces plan their fleets. This is particularly critical in the Indo-Pacific, where speed, reach, and survivability are vital.

Why Americans Should The Bengal MC

represents a shift toward a leaner, faster, more lethal Navy—one that can respond quickly to threats without waiting for a carrier strike group to arrive. In an era where peer adversaries like China are rapidly expanding and modernizing their fleets, the U.S. must adopt innovative solutions to maintain maritime dominance. This is about more than ships; it’s about safeguarding trade routes, deterring aggression, and ensuring that America retains freedom of movement on the seas.

Implications for the Navy

For the U.S. Navy, the Bengal MC offers an opportunity to expand distributed maritime operations with high-speed, missile-capable platforms that are less expensive to build and operate. The autonomy package reduces crew demands, freeing personnel for other critical missions. In contested environments, these vessels can serve as fast-moving strike platforms, reconnaissance nodes, or logistic links—roles that support and extend the reach of larger fleet assets.

Implications for Our Allies

For U.S. allies in AUKUS, NATO, and key Indo-Pacific partnerships, the Bengal MC offers an interoperable, high-performance platform that can be rapidly integrated into joint operations. Nations like Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines—facing their own maritime security challenges—could use this vessel to augment their fleets without the heavy investment required for traditional destroyers or frigates. Greater allied adoption would strengthen collective maritime defense and create a shared technological advantage over adversaries.

Conclusion

The AIRCAT Bengal MC is more than a new ship—it’s a potential blueprint for the future of naval warfare. Fast, flexible, and autonomous, it demonstrates how advanced engineering and smart design can produce a strategic asset that meets the demands of modern maritime security. If the U.S. and its allies choose to embrace this model, it could mark a turning point in the race for naval superiority in the 21st century.

Learn More and Get Involved

At Americans for a Stronger Navy, we believe in highlighting technologies and strategies that strengthen our maritime advantage. Our mission is to educate, engage, and rally support for a Navy that can meet tomorrow’s challenges head-on. Sign up for the FREE newsletter and join our educational series.


An Open Letter: The Real Story Behind USS Harry S. Truman’s Red Sea Deployment

By Bill Cullifer, Founder, Americans for a Stronger Navy

I write today in response to the deeply troubling article titled “It Was Supposed to Be a Show of Force — USS Harry S. Truman’s Return From the Red Sea Has Become a Humiliation for U.S. Navy,” published by Indian Defence Review, which fundamentally mischaracterizes one of the most challenging naval deployments in recent memory.

Whether this represents clickbait journalism or genuine editorial perspective, it raises several critical concerns that extend far beyond this single article. First and foremost: Is this the thanks we give to the men and women who spent over eight months away from their families, conducting combat operations in one of the world’s most dangerous maritime corridors?

The Real Numbers Tell a Different Story

Let’s examine what the USS Harry S. Truman and her crew actually accomplished:

  • Over 250 days at sea in a combat environment
  • 11,000 sorties flown against legitimate military targets
  • 1.1 million pounds of ordnance deployed with precision
  • Zero pilot fatalities despite equipment challenges
  • Continuous protection of one of the world’s most critical shipping lanes

These are not the metrics of failure. These are the achievements of professional sailors executing their mission under extraordinary circumstances.

The Human Cost of Service

Behind every sortie, every watch standing, every maintenance cycle, there are real people. Sailors who missed birthdays, anniversaries, and holidays. Young men and women who wrote letters home while dodging Iranian-supplied drones and missiles. Chiefs and petty officers who worked around the clock to keep aircraft flying and systems operational.

When equipment failed—as it inevitably does in the harsh maritime environment—these same sailors adapted, improvised, and continued the mission. When accidents occurred, they responded with professionalism and ensured their shipmates survived.

Understanding Modern Naval Warfare

The article’s characterization of the deployment as a “humiliation” reveals a fundamental misunderstanding of 21st-century naval operations. The Houthis, backed by Iran, represent exactly the kind of asymmetric threat our Navy faces globally. There are no clean victories against an enemy that hides among civilians, uses commercial vessels as shields, and employs disposable drone swarms.

The fact that commercial shipping continues to face challenges doesn’t diminish what the Truman accomplished—it highlights the complexity of the threat environment and the limitations of any single military response to a multi-faceted geopolitical problem.

Equipment Losses in Context

Yes, three F/A-18 Super Hornets were lost during the deployment. Each represents significant cost and operational impact. But let’s be clear about what this means: In over 11,000 sorties, with zero pilot fatalities, we experienced a loss rate of 0.027%. By historical standards of naval aviation, particularly in combat operations, this is remarkable.

More importantly, each incident led to immediate safety reviews, procedural improvements, and lessons learned that will protect future sailors and aviators. This is how professional military organizations operate.

The Broader Information Warfare Concern

This incident highlights a troubling trend in how military operations are portrayed in global media. The USS Truman’s heroic service received minimal positive coverage during their deployment, yet a sensationalized critique gains international attention through platforms like Google News.

Recent investigations have documented serious concerns about foreign influence in news distribution. Three CCP-controlled media outlets enjoy hosting and promotion privileges on Google’s flagship news platform, according to reporting by the Washington Examiner. Additionally, Google has blocked more than 1,000 Glassbridge sites from Google News and Google Discover since 2022 due to coordinated pro-China influence operations.

American taxpayers funded the development of these information distribution technologies, yet we now see them potentially weaponized to undermine public confidence in U.S. military operations. Whether intentional or not, sensationalized coverage that diminishes American military achievements serves the strategic interests of our adversaries.

Our Sailors Deserve Better Recognition

The truth is that our sailors’ remarkable service barely made the news during their deployment. While they were conducting combat operations under dangerous conditions, the media largely ignored their daily acts of courage and professionalism. Yet sensationalized criticism spreads quickly through algorithmic news distribution systems.

The Truman’s deployment served multiple strategic purposes beyond immediate tactical outcomes:

  • Alliance building: Working alongside international partners in a coalition environment
  • Deterrence: Demonstrating sustained American presence in a critical region
  • Experience: Providing irreplaceable combat experience to a new generation of sailors
  • Intelligence: Gathering critical data on enemy capabilities and tactics

These strategic benefits don’t fit neatly into headlines, but they represent the real value of sustained naval presence operations.

A Call for Perspective

Military operations are complex, multi-dimensional endeavors that rarely produce clean victories or clear defeats. The men and women of the USS Harry S. Truman served with distinction in a challenging environment, accomplished their assigned missions, and returned home safely.

They deserve our gratitude, not sensationalized criticism that reduces their service to clickbait headlines.

As supporters of our military personnel, we can and should hold our military leadership accountable for strategic decisions, equipment readiness, and operational effectiveness. But we must do so in a way that honors the sacrifice and professionalism of the sailors who execute these missions.

The crew of the USS Harry S. Truman didn’t return home in “humiliation.” They returned home as combat veterans who served their country with honor in one of the world’s most dangerous regions.

That’s a story worth telling accurately.


Americans for a Stronger Navy, an organization dedicated to supporting U.S. naval personnel and advocating for robust maritime security. He can be reached at [contact information].

MASGA Marks a Critical Milestone—But the U.S. Navy Still Needs Urgent Industrial Surge

Bill Cullifer, Founder
Bill Cullifer, Founder

Introduction

From Waltz’s Warning to MASGA’s Launch

On September 27, 2023, Congressman Mike Waltz published “America Needs a National Maritime Strategy,” warning that the United States lacked the shipbuilding capacity and strategic alignment needed to counter China and sustain a maritime advantage.

Nearly two years later, that warning has materialized into policy.

On April 9–10, 2025, the White House issued the executive order “Restoring America’s Maritime Dominance,” launching the Maritime Action Plan and creating the new Office of Shipbuilding under the National Security Council.

Then, on July 31, 2025, South Korea’s Finance Minister confirmed the formal launch of Make America Shipbuilding Great Again (MASGA)—a $150 billion industrial partnership investing in U.S. shipyards, workforce development, and dual-use naval-commercial platforms.

What MASGA Does

MASGA is the largest public-private shipbuilding effort since the Cold War and includes:

  • Investment from South Korean giants like Hanwha Group into American yards (including the acquisition of Philly Shipyard)
  • Joint U.S.–ROK workforce training programs to close skilled labor gaps
  • New production of replenishment, patrol, and logistics vessels for both Navy and commercial use
  • Maintenance and drydock support for U.S. Navy ships on U.S. soil

It’s a big step forward—but one that must be matched with urgency.

Admiral Caudle’s Stark Warning: “We Need a 100% Industrial Surge”

On July 29, 2025, during his confirmation hearing for Chief of Naval Operations, Admiral Daryl Caudle delivered a sobering message to the Senate Armed Services Committee.

To meet U.S. obligations under the AUKUS agreement—selling up to five Virginia-class submarines to Australia while sustaining our own fleet—the Navy must double its submarine output:

  • Current production: ~1.3 Virginia-class submarines per year
  • Required output: 2.3 per year

“We need a transformational improvement,” Caudle testified. “Not a 10 percent improvement, not a 20 percent—a 100 percent improvement.

He added that international partnerships would be essential as the U.S. works to rebuild its organic capacity:

“There are no magic beans to that. The solution space must open up. We need ships today.”

Committee Chairman Roger Wicker stressed creativity, outsourcing, and urgency. Admiral Caudle agreed, calling for “an all-hands-on-deck approach.”

This is precisely where MASGA comes in.

Why MASGA Matters for the Navy

MASGA’s structure provides the kind of foreign capacity support and workforce relief Caudle explicitly called for. It aligns directly with the Navy’s urgent need for:

  • Surge production of submarines and surface combatants
  • Expanded maintenance infrastructure
  • Shipyard partnerships to relieve domestic pressure

Congressman Waltz anticipated this crisis in 2023. MASGA is the first large-scale step toward solving it.

The Broader Navy Production Challenge

Submarines aren’t the only problem. The Navy’s broader industrial needs remain acute:

  • Destroyer production has slipped behind plan; the Navy aims to buy 51 new destroyers over the next 30 years, but current yards are falling short.
  • Aircraft carriers like the USS John F. Kennedy (CVN‑79) are years behind schedule.
  • The Navy’s long-term fleet goal of 381 ships by 2042 will remain aspirational without massive industrial acceleration.

And even with MASGA, the Navy is still contending with an aging Military Sealift Command, an undersized Merchant Marine, and shipyard repair backlogs.

Modernization Means Autonomy—And We’re Behind

Modernizing the fleet doesn’t just mean more hulls—it means smarter platforms. The future of naval warfare will be shaped by autonomous surface and undersea vehicles, from uncrewed missile boats to AI-enabled minehunters and refueling drones. China is already fielding swarms of semi-autonomous systems in contested waters. Meanwhile, the U.S. Navy’s efforts under programs like the Medium and Large Unmanned Surface Vessel (MUSV/LUSV) remain limited by slow procurement and industrial bottlenecks. MASGA can accelerate the integration of autonomous systems by expanding modular shipbuilding capacity, repurposing civilian infrastructure, and enabling faster tech deployment across the fleet. Without autonomy, we fall behind—not just in numbers, but in survivability and battlefield adaptability.

What Must Come Next

MASGA is a launchpad, not a destination. To restore maritime power, the U.S. must:

Expand submarine production
Reach 2.3 attack subs/year by 2030. This requires labor, capital, and process modernization on a scale not seen in decades.

Accelerate surface fleet output
Ramp up destroyers, amphibious vessels, and support ships. Congress must deliver multi-year procurement and budget certainty.

Fix regulation and finance
Incentivize private capital to flow into U.S. shipyards, not Chinese ones. Close loopholes and create new maritime investment channels for Americans.

Grow the skilled workforce
Welders, naval architects, systems engineers—we need tens of thousands more. Joint international training must be paired with U.S. educational investments.

Modernize the Merchant Marine
We once had over 5,000 ships. Today, we have fewer than 80 engaged in international trade. This is a critical national vulnerability.

Closing Message: MASGA Is a Start, Not a Solution

MASGA validates the vision Mike Waltz articulated in 2023. It meets Admiral Caudle’s call for relief through allied partnerships. It aligns with the Navy’s production and readiness needs.

But China is still building. Delays persist. And the decision space for national security continues to shrink.

Let’s not wait another decade to act like a maritime power. Let’s build, now.

That’s why we launched Charting the Course: Voices That Matter—a 24-part educational series breaking down how we got here, what went wrong, and what must happen next. Our goal is simple: educate the public, connect the dots, and build the support needed to close the readiness gap before it’s too late.

Let’s move beyond slogans. Let’s build understanding, accountability, and strength—before the next crisis comes knocking.


Join us at StrongerNavy.org
Let’s roll.

US Naval Posture and Operations in the Wake of Strikes on Iran’s Nuclear Program


At sea with USS The Sullivans (DDG 68)

US Naval Posture and Operations in the Wake of Strikes on Iran’s Nuclear Program on June 21, 2025, marked a significant shift in Operations in the Wake of Strikes on Iran’s Nuclear Program..

Washington’s regional posture, moving beyond indirect support to direct offensive action against Iranian sovereign territory. The primary objective, as articulated by President Donald Trump, was to “completely and fully obliterate” Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities, thereby neutralizing its capacity to develop nuclear weapons.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth further clarified that the mission, codenamed “Operation Midnight Hammer,” was not aimed at regime change but constituted a “precision operation to neutralize the threats… posed by the Iranian nuclear program”. This decisive action followed over a week of intense Israeli strikes targeting Iran’s air defenses, offensive missile capabilities, and nuclear infrastructure. Notably, the US intervention came swiftly after President Trump’s publicly stated “two-week deadline” for a decision, with strikes commencing just two days later. This swift action, following a period of apparent deliberation, suggests a deliberate strategic deception, a “ruse to lull the Iranians into a sense of complacency,” as speculated by retired Navy Admiral James G. Stavridis. The detailed execution of Operation Midnight Hammer, which involved decoys and extensive misdirection, further substantiates this approach, highlighting a sophisticated military strategy that prioritizes surprise and operational security. This tactical maneuver underscores a willingness to integrate psychological warfare into strategic planning, potentially setting a precedent for future engagements and demonstrating a keen understanding of Iranian strategic calculations.

Operation Midnight Hammer: The US Strikes on Iran’s Nuclear Program

The US military operation, officially designated “Operation Midnight Hammer,” was a meticulously planned and executed series of precision strikes against critical components of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. The targets included three of Iran’s most significant nuclear facilities: Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan. Fordo, notably, is recognized as Iran’s most fortified nuclear site, constructed deep within a mountain, approximately 80 to 90 meters underground.

Initial assessments of the damage varied significantly. While President Trump asserted that the facilities were “completely and totally obliterated” , Pentagon officials, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Dan Caine, offered a more cautious evaluation, stating that the sites sustained “severe damage” and that a “final battle damage assessment would take time”. Conversely, Iran’s National Nuclear Safety System Center and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported “no signs of contamination” or “no increase in off-site radiation levels” at the affected locations. An Al Jazeera official further claimed that the US Iran conflict, US Navy, Iran nuclear program, Operation Midnight Hammer, submarine strikes, Tomahawk missiles, GBU-57 MOPs, Strait of Hormuz, Middle East security, Iranian retaliation, Carrier Strike Group, US military presence, geopolitical implications, naval strategy, expert analysis, General Kenneth McKenzie, General Michael Kurilla, Admiral James Stavridis, Admiral Robert Natter, Bryan Clark, Seth G. Jones, Michael Eisenstadt, Mohammed Albasha, Jonathan Schanzer, Andrea Stricker, Captain Brent Sadler, Persian Gulf, Red Sea, Fordo, Natanz, Isfahan, asymmetric warfare, global oil markets, deterrence, US foreign policy, international relations, regional stability.

Weaponry and Operational Sophistication
The operation showcased the deployment of highly advanced weaponry, marking a significant milestone in military capabilities
. The primary ordnance used were GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs), 30,000-pound (13,500-kilogram) bunker-buster bombs, which saw their first combat deployment during Operation Midnight Hammer. Reports indicated that six B-2 Spirit bombers were responsible for dropping up to 12 MOPs on the Fordo facility.
Complementing the aerial assault, approximately 30 Tomahawk cruise missiles were launched from US Navy submarines, targeting the Natanz and Isfahan nuclear sites. These missiles, known for their long-range precision and deep land attack capabilities, travel at high subsonic speeds and extremely low altitudes, employing mission-tailored guidance systems for evasive flight paths. The coordinated strike sequence involved submarine-launched Tomahawks hitting surface infrastructure at Isfahan before the B-2 bombers delivered their MOP payloads on Fordo and Natanz, demonstrating a multi-layered and synchronized attack strategy.
The execution of “Operation Midnight Hammer” was characterized by extreme secrecy and elaborate deception tactics. Seven B-2 Spirit bombers initiated the mission from Whiteman Air Force Base, Missouri, embarking on an 18-hour flight. A decoy formation of B-2s was dispatched westward into the Pacific, while the actual strike package proceeded quietly eastward with minimal communications, a strategy designed to maintain surprise. The operation involved a vast array of over 125 US aircraft, including fourth and fifth-generation fighters and dozens of aerial refueling tankers, all contributing to the complex maneuver. High-speed suppression weapons were employed to ensure the safe passage of the strike package. Remarkably, no US aircraft were reportedly fired upon during the mission, and Iran’s air defense systems failed to detect the incoming bombers, a testament to the effectiveness of the stealth and deception tactics employed. The strikes were conducted in full coordination with Israel, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu commending President Trump’s decision, asserting that the US “has done what no other country on earth could do”.

This operation serves as a powerful demonstration of the US’s unique “deep strike” capability. The emphasis on MOPs and their capacity to penetrate deeply buried, heavily fortified targets underscores a military advantage that few, if any, other nations possess. As Bryan Clark of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) asserted, “Only the US Has the Capabilities to Take Out Iran’s Nuclear Program”. This capability reshapes the strategic calculus for states pursuing clandestine nuclear programs, indicating that even deeply buried facilities are not invulnerable. The operation also highlights a sophisticated integration of multi-domain warfare and deception. The detailed accounts of “Operation Midnight Hammer” reveal a seamless coordination of air, naval, cyber, and space assets. This multi-domain integration, coupled with advanced operational security and strategic deception, suggests that future high-value strikes will likely involve similar complex planning, making them exceedingly difficult for adversaries to predict or counter.

The effectiveness of the strikes and their long-term implications for Iran’s nuclear program remain a subject of debate. While President Trump declared “obliteration,” the more cautious language from Pentagon officials, referring to “severe damage” , and Iran’s insistence that its nuclear work would not be stopped , point to differing interpretations. Experts like Jonathan Schanzer believe “the nuclear program is no longer” , yet Andrea Stricker cautions that “Tehran’s program is likely set back by years… which means more work ahead”. Michael Eisenstadt of The Washington Institute similarly suggests that a preventive attack “likely won’t be a one-off but rather the opening round of a lengthy campaign”. This divergence in assessments indicates that while the physical infrastructure may be severely damaged, the “knowledge gain” and human capital of Iran’s nuclear program likely persist. Consequently, the long-term success of “prevention” will necessitate sustained pressure, continuous intelligence gathering, and the credible threat of further action, potentially leading to a prolonged period of both overt and covert operations rather than a singular, decisive blow.

The US Navy’s Role and Force Posture
The United States Navy played a pivotal and multifaceted role in the recent strikes and continues to maintain a robust and adaptive posture in the Middle East,
responding to heightened regional tensions.

Submarine Operations

A critical, covert component of Operation Midnight Hammer involved US Navy submarines launching approximately 30 Tomahawk land-attack missiles. These missiles specifically targeted the Natanz and Isfahan nuclear sites. Although the specific submarine was not publicly identified, the USS Georgia (SSGN-729), an Ohio-class guided-missile submarine capable of fielding over 150 Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles (TLAMs), had entered the region in September. Speculation points strongly to an Ohio-class submarine being involved in these strikes. The timing of these submarine-launched Tomahawks was strategically significant, striking surface infrastructure targets at Isfahan before the B-2 bombers dropped their payloads on Fordo and Natanz, indicating a precisely coordinated, multi-layered attack sequence designed to maximize impact and surprise.
The deployment of submarines for these strikes underscores their unique advantage as covert, high-impact strike platforms. Unlike manned bomber aircraft, submarines can approach targets undetected, providing a crucial element of surprise and significantly reducing the risk to personnel. This strategic preference for leveraging stealth and underwater capabilities for initial or complementary strikes against high-value targets reinforces the submarine fleet’s role as a potent and survivable component of the US’s global power projection. This capability complicates adversary defense planning by introducing an unpredictable vector of attack, potentially leading to increased investment in and reliance on such platforms for future conflicts.

Surface Fleet Presence and Strategic Deployments

Beyond the covert submarine operations, the US Navy maintains a substantial and strategically positioned surface fleet presence across the Middle East. Reports indicate that American warships are actively engaged in shooting down Iranian ballistic missiles targeting Israel, with vessels like the USS The Sullivans and USS Arleigh Burke having launched defensive strikes. The USS Thomas Hudner has since joined The Sullivans for continued defensive operations.
Table 1: Key US Navy Assets and Locations (Post-Strike)

Vessel/Group NameTypeCurrent/Recent LocationPrimary Role in Conflict
USS Carl Vinson CSGAircraft Carrier Strike GroupNorth Arabian SeaSecurity for US troops/bases in Gulf of Oman/Persian Gulf
USS Nimitz CSGAircraft Carrier Strike GroupHeading west from Indo-Pacific, arriving soonScheduled to relieve Carl Vinson, potential overlap
USS The Sullivans (DDG-68)Guided-Missile DestroyerEastern MediterraneanShooting down Iranian ballistic missiles for Israel
USS Thomas Hudner (DDG-116)Guided-Missile DestroyerEastern MediterraneanJoined The Sullivans for defense strikes
USS Arleigh Burke (DDG-51)Guided-Missile DestroyerEastern Mediterranean (moved away)Shooting down Iranian ballistic missiles for Israel
USS Forrest Sherman (DDG-98)Guided-Missile DestroyerRed SeaGeneral presence, maritime security
USS Truxtun (DDG-103)Guided-Missile DestroyerRed SeaGeneral presence, maritime security
USS Paul Ignatius (DDG-117)Guided-Missile DestroyerMediterranean SeaBallistic missile defense
USS Oscar Austin (DDG-79)Guided-Missile DestroyerMediterranean SeaBallistic missile defense
Ohio-class guided-missile submarine (e.g., USS Georgia SSGN-729)Guided-Missile SubmarineUS Central Command AORTomahawk missile launch platform
The USS Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group (CSG) has been operating in the North Arabian Sea, strategically positioned to provide security for US troops and bases along the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf. Concurrently, the USS Nimitz CSG, long scheduled to relieve the Carl Vinson, is transiting from the Indo-Pacific and is expected to arrive in the region by the end of the month, potentially leading to a temporary overlap of the two carrier groups. This marks a rare occurrence, with two carriers operating simultaneously in the region for the second time this year.
In terms of guided-missile destroyers, the USS The Sullivans (DDG-68) and USS Arleigh Burke (DDG-51) have been actively engaged in shooting down Iranian ballistic missiles targeting Israel in the Eastern Mediterranean. The USS Thomas Hudner (DDG-116) has since joined The Sullivans for continued defensive strikes, while the Arleigh Burke has repositioned. Additionally, the USS Forrest Sherman (DDG-98) and USS Truxtun (DDG-103) are positioned in the Red Sea , and five ballistic missile defense ships, including USS Arleigh Burke, USS Thomas Hudner, USS The Sullivans, USS Paul Ignatius (DDG-117), and USS Oscar Austin (DDG-79), are stationed in the Mediterranean Sea. Overall, the US has increased its troop presence in the Middle East to approximately 40,000, up from a typical 30,000, with bases on heightened alert.
This significant re-prioritization of Middle East naval assets is evident in the deployment of a second aircraft carrier and the movement of naval vessels from potentially vulnerable locations like Bahrain. Bahrain, in particular, is home to the U.S. Navy’s Mideast-based 5th Fleet and has long been identified as a potential target for Iran. This shift occurs despite previous Pentagon efforts to focus on countering China in the Indo-Pacific. The increased naval presence signals a clear commitment to deterring Iranian aggression and protecting US interests in the Middle East, even if it entails potentially diluting focus on other strategic theaters. This could lead to a sustained, elevated naval presence, increasing operational tempo and potentially straining resources in the long term.
The strategic implications of these naval deployments are profound. The increased presence restricts operational flexibility for Iran and necessitates a greater US naval presence in critical strategic waterways. The US 5th Fleet, headquartered in Bahrain, serves as a vital command center for naval operations across the Persian Gulf, Arabian Sea, and Red Sea, playing a crucial role in safeguarding the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. This headquarters is now considered among the most likely Iranian targets. Bryan Clark has observed that US carriers have been operating less frequently within the confined waters of the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, instead spending more time in the broader Arabian Sea, a tactical adjustment in response to Iran’s increased capability to attack large surface ships. This adjustment highlights the enhanced maritime security challenges in these critical chokepoints, where the US Navy faces simultaneous and complex threats. The risk of multi-theater conflicts with significant economic consequences for global energy and trade is thus heightened, demanding continuous adaptation of naval strategy and force protection measures.
Iranian Response and Retaliation Threats
Iran has reacted with strong condemnation and explicit threats of retaliation following the US strikes, signaling potential repercussions for regional stability and global maritime security.
Official Iranian Statements and Damage Assessment Claims
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi vehemently condemned the strikes as a “grave violation of the UN Charter, international law and the NPT,” warning of “everlasting consequences” and asserting that Iran “reserves all options” to retaliate. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian echoed this sentiment, condemning the US as the “primary instigator of the Zionist regime’s hostile actions”. While Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization confirmed the attacks on Fordo, Isfahan, and Natanz, it insisted that its nuclear work would not be halted.
In a counter-narrative to US claims of “obliteration,” Iran’s National Nuclear Safety System Center and the IAEA reported “no signs of contamination” or “no increase in off-site radiation levels” at the targeted sites. An Al Jazeera official further claimed that the Fordo facility had been “long evacuated” and sustained no irreversible damage. This information warfare component underscores the regime’s efforts to manage both domestic and international perceptions of the strikes’ impact.
Threats of Retaliation Against US Interests
Tehran has overtly threatened retaliation against US interests in the region , with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warning of “irreparable damage”. Iran has explicitly named at least 19 US bases across the Gulf as potential targets, including the critical 5th Fleet Headquarters in Bahrain.
A significant concern revolves around Iran’s potential disruption of critical global shipping lanes. Iran’s Parliament reportedly approved a measure to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint through which approximately 20% of global oil and gas demand flows. The final decision, however, rests with Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. Iran has previously threatened to deploy up to 6,000 naval mines and speedboats in the Strait of Hormuz, demonstrating a clear intent to disrupt maritime traffic. The multinational, US-led Combined Maritime Forces’ JMIC information center has categorized the threat to US-associated commercial shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden as “high” following the strikes.
Proxy Group Activities
Iranian-backed proxy groups pose a significant threat to US interests. Houthi forces in Yemen have explicitly warned they would resume attacks on US ships in the Red Sea if Washington joined the bombing campaign against Iran. Their military has unequivocally stated its intent to attack US ships. Similarly, Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq has issued warnings of attacks on US interests and military bases in the region. Mohammed Albasha, an expert on Yemen, noted that “Now that the U.S. has struck Iran, I believe the Houthis, Kataib Hezbollah, and other Iranian-backed armed groups are most likely to attack U.S. interests”. He cautioned that “We have entered uncharted territory tonight, and nothing can be ruled out”. General Michael “Erik” Kurilla also highlighted that Iranian-backed militias had conducted approximately 200 attacks targeting US positions in Iraq and Syria between October 2023 and November 2024.
Iran’s strategic dilemma becomes apparent in its response. While its rhetoric signals a strong intent to retaliate, assessments from figures like Gen. McKenzie suggest that Iran’s conventional ballistic missile and drone force “has been exposed as hollow” , and its primary proxy, Lebanese Hezbollah, has been “decapitated”. This indicates a degraded conventional capability, implying Iran will likely rely on asymmetric warfare and its proxy networks for retaliation, as emphasized by Albasha. This means the immediate threat to US naval assets and personnel in the region is less from a direct, conventional military confrontation and more from diffuse, non-state actor attacks, cyber operations, or maritime harassment in critical chokepoints. This necessitates a shift in US force protection and deterrence strategies to counter actors operating in the “gray zone” between peace and war, a concept explored by Michael Eisenstadt.
The threats to close the Strait of Hormuz are not merely military but primarily economic. As 20-30% of global seaborne oil passes through this waterway, any disruption would trigger significant global economic shockwaves, impacting oil prices and shipping costs. Iran understands that its most potent leverage against the US and its allies may not be direct military confrontation but economic disruption. This places immense pressure on the US Navy’s 5th Fleet, whose primary mission includes safeguarding freedom of navigation in these waters. The potential for simultaneous maritime threats in both the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz further complicates US naval strategy and could necessitate difficult choices regarding resource allocation and escalation management.
Finally, Iran’s immediate downplaying of damage and claims of “no contamination” , coupled with efforts to control information internally through internet blackouts and the detention of journalists’ family members , reflect a strong internal narrative control effort. This aligns with Seth G. Jones’ analysis of Iran’s “soft war” and information campaigns. This internal vulnerability could become a target for future “gray zone” operations, aiming to destabilize the regime through information warfare or by exacerbating internal frustrations.
Expert Perspectives on the Conflict and Naval Implications
Leading military and strategic experts offer diverse and often nuanced insights into the recent US strikes, Iran’s capabilities, and the broader implications for naval strategy and regional stability.
Table 2: Notable Expert Commentary on US-Iran Naval Dynamics
Expert NameAffiliationKey Statement/InsightSource
Gen. Kenneth “Frank” McKenzie (Ret.)Former CENTCOM CommanderTrump’s previous actions taught Iranians he “was not afraid to employ military power.” Threatening the nuclear program is key to threatening the regime. Iran’s missile/drone force “exposed as hollow.” Underground launch facilities are easier targets than deep nuclear sites. US basing strategy “outdated.” Iranians are “master negotiators.”
Gen. Michael “Erik” KurillaCENTCOM HeadProvided “wide range of options” for strikes. Continuously assesses US posture and risk. Iran’s regional domination cannot be realized if regional states integrate with US. US is “transitioning from security guarantor to security integrator.”
Adm. James G. Stavridis (Ret.)Former Supreme US Commander in EuropeTrump’s two-week deadline might be a “very clever ruse to lull the Iranians into a sense of complacency.”
Adm. Robert Natter (Ret.)Retired US Navy AdmiralIran has mines in Strait of Hormuz and missiles for US ships/sites; expects asymmetric response.
Bryan ClarkCenter for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA)“Only the US Has the Capabilities to Take Out Iran’s Nuclear Program.” Iran is “weaker and more vulnerable than it has been in decades.” US carriers operate less in Persian Gulf due to Iranian anti-ship capabilities. Iran could pull off “complex attack” causing damage/casualties.
Seth G. JonesCenter for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)Focuses on defense strategy, military operations, irregular warfare. Authored “Three Dangerous Men: Russia, China, Iran, and the Rise of Irregular Warfare.” US unprepared for irregular warfare, needs to leverage commercial sector. Iran engages in “soft war” and information campaigns.
Michael EisenstadtThe Washington InstitutePreventive attack likely “opening round of a lengthy campaign.” Iran would prioritize ballistic missiles for nuclear delivery. Believes Iran would use nuclear weapons only in extremis.
Mohammed AlbashaBasha Report (Yemen expert)Houthis, Kataib Hezbollah, and other Iranian-backed groups are “most likely to attack U.S. interests.” Expects “symbolic retaliation rather than full-scale escalation,” but “nothing can be ruled out.”
Jonathan SchanzerFoundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD)“The nuclear program is no longer.”
Andrea StrickerFDDIran’s program “likely set back by years… which means more work ahead.” US/Israel need to ensure uranium stockpiles/centrifuges are recovered/destroyed.
Captain Brent SadlerHeritage Foundation“Iran’s regime seems unable to change its tact, and is driving headlong into even more punishing attacks from USA. It is in fact a clear demonstration (if one needed) of the bloodthirsty worldview of the mullahs running Iran. The people of Iran have long been dissatisfied with the religious fanatics and its IRGC muscle, any crack in the regime’s brutality could rapidly see its demise – not regime change from outside but by Iranian people power.”
Perspectives from Former CENTCOM Commanders
General Kenneth “Frank” McKenzie (Ret.), who commanded US Central Command (CENTCOM) from 2019 to 2022, possesses deep familiarity with the Iranian threat. He posits that President Trump’s previous forceful actions have instilled in Iranians the understanding that he “was not afraid to employ military power”. McKenzie maintains that “threatening the nuclear program is a key element of any threat to the regime”. He assessed Iran’s ballistic missile and drone force as “exposed as hollow” following its unsuccessful attacks on Israel. McKenzie also suggested that “underground launch facilities are much easier to target than the deep nuclear sites”. He cautioned that the “window” for effective strikes “will not stay open forever,” as Iran will eventually replace air defenses and further harden its nuclear sites. Furthermore, McKenzie criticized the current US basing strategy in the Middle East as “outdated and poorly positioned to meet the central threat in the region: Iran,” advocating for a more flexible western basing network. He also noted that while “the Iranians aren’t particularly effective fighters, they are master negotiators”.
General Michael “Erik” Kurilla, the current head of CENTCOM, is known for his hardline stance on Iran and his advocacy for aggressive military action. He confirmed having provided “a wide range of options” to the administration for strikes on Iran’s nuclear program. Kurilla emphasized the continuous assessment and adjustment of US posture and risk, stating that Iran’s goal of regional domination “cannot be realized if the region’s states continue to expand integration with each other and deepen partnership with the United States”. He also highlighted the US’s transition “from security guarantor to security integrator” in the Middle East.
Commentary from Retired US Navy Admirals
Retired Navy Admiral James G. Stavridis, former Supreme US Commander in Europe, speculated prior to the strikes that President Trump’s two-week deadline might have been a “very clever ruse to lull the Iranians into a sense of complacency”. Retired US Navy Admiral Robert Natter, commenting on the strikes, discussed Iran’s military capabilities, including its capacity to plant mines in the Strait of Hormuz and fire missiles at US ships and land sites, generally acknowledging Iran’s potential for asymmetric responses.
Analysis from Leading Defense Think Tanks
Bryan Clark, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA), asserts that “Only the US Has the Capabilities to Take Out Iran’s Nuclear Program”. He believes Iran is “weaker and more vulnerable than it has been in decades”. Clark noted that US carriers have been operating less frequently in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, spending more time in the Arabian Sea, as a direct response to Iran’s increased capability to attack large ships. He cautioned that Iran “might be able to pull off a complex attack that could degrade U.S. air defenses enough to get a couple of missiles through. It might not sink a ship, but it would certainly cause a lot damage and casualties and be a big public relations coup for the Iranians”.
Seth G. Jones, President of the Defense and Security Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), focuses on defense strategy, military operations, and irregular warfare. He authored “Three Dangerous Men: Russia, China, Iran, and the Rise of Irregular Warfare”. Jones highlights the US’s unpreparedness for the evolving nature of irregular warfare and the necessity of leveraging the commercial sector for capabilities such as battlefield awareness, unmanned systems, and influence operations against adversaries like Iran. He also points to Iran’s engagement in “soft war” tactics and information campaigns.
Michael Eisenstadt, the Kahn Senior Fellow and director of The Washington Institute’s Military and Security Studies Program, specializes in Persian Gulf and Arab-Israeli security affairs and nuclear proliferation. In his work “Attacking Iran’s Nuclear Program: The Complex Calculus of Preventive Action,” he argues that a preventive attack will likely be “the opening round of a lengthy campaign” rather than a one-off event. Eisenstadt suggests that if Iran were to acquire nuclear weapons, it would prioritize ballistic missiles as its primary delivery system due to their survivability and penetration capabilities. He believes Iran would only use nuclear weapons in extremis, if the survival of the Islamic Republic were directly threatened.
Captain Brent Sadler, a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation, has weighed in on the strategic importance of targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities. He noted that Fordo, being “roughly 80 to 90 meters inside of a mountain,” is the “hardest target to hit” and requires American strikes with specialized weaponry like the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, delivered by heavy bombers such as the B-2. Sadler also expressed hope for a peaceful resolution, suggesting that if the Iranian people “enact a regime change,” Fordo could be “taken peacefully and disbanded with the IAEA on the ground watching it happen in real time”.
The collective expert commentary reveals an enduring debate regarding whether the recent strikes constitute a “decisive blow” or merely the beginning of a “protracted campaign.” While President Trump and some analysts like Jonathan Schanzer suggest the nuclear program is “obliterated” or “over” , more nuanced perspectives from Pentagon officials and think tank experts like Andrea Stricker and Michael Eisenstadt indicate a significant setback, not a definitive end. Eisenstadt’s framing of the attack as the “opening round of a lengthy campaign” underscores the strategic uncertainty surrounding the long-term impact. This implies that policymakers must prepare for a sustained effort to counter Iran’s nuclear ambitions, requiring ongoing intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) to detect rebuilding efforts , continuous diplomatic pressure, and the credible threat of further action. The “decisive blow” narrative, while politically appealing, may obscure the need for a more enduring and complex strategy.
Furthermore, these expert analyses illuminate the evolving nature of deterrence in the Middle East. General McKenzie’s observations on Trump’s willingness to use military power and General Kurilla’s focus on “security integration” suggest a shift in US deterrence strategy. However, the persistent threats from Iranian proxies and Bryan Clark’s warnings about complex asymmetric attacks indicate that traditional military deterrence against a state actor may not fully address the “gray zone” tactics employed by Iran and its proxies. This necessitates that the US Navy and broader military adapt its deterrence posture to address both conventional and asymmetric threats. This involves not only maintaining superior firepower but also developing capabilities to counter drones, mines, and missile attacks from non-state actors, as well as enhancing regional partnerships for integrated defense. The vulnerability of US bases and naval assets to such attacks requires a re-evaluation of force protection and basing strategies.
Finally, the interplay of military action and diplomatic leverage is a recurring theme. Vice President JD Vance’s statements about the strikes creating an environment for a “reset” of relations and an “opportunity for the Iranians to take the smart path” towards talks directly contrast with Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi’s assertion that the strikes have “blown up any possibility of diplomacy”. This highlights a fundamental disagreement on the role of military force in facilitating diplomacy. General McKenzie’s observation that Iranians are “master negotiators” who will “play for time” adds another layer of complexity. The military action, while intended to degrade Iran’s capabilities, simultaneously complicates diplomatic pathways. The US appears to be operating from a position of “peace through strength” , attempting to compel Iran back to the negotiating table from a weakened position. However, Iran’s strong condemnation and threats suggest a hardening of its stance, potentially making a diplomatic resolution more elusive in the short term. The long-term outcome will depend on whether military pressure can genuinely compel a shift in Iranian strategic calculus or merely entrench defiance.
Broader Geopolitical and Economic Implications
The US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities have generated ripple effects that extend far beyond immediate military engagements, impacting global markets and the strategic balance across the Middle East.
Impact on Global Oil Markets and Maritime Security
The intensifying hostilities are poised to significantly affect global oil markets. Iran’s repeated threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping corridor, would have profound consequences, leading to substantial increases in insurance premiums and costlier rerouting of oil shipments. Concurrently, the ongoing threat of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea could further disrupt shipping, elevate costs for global logistics companies, and diminish the strategic impact of Western naval forces in the region. The US thus faces simultaneous maritime threats in two strategically vital waterways: the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. Beyond maritime trade, the conflict has already impacted air travel, with British Airways canceling flights to the UAE and Qatar and diverting a Dubai-bound airliner. Israel also responded by closing its airspace.
This situation heralds a “new normal” of regional instability and supply chain vulnerability. The direct US intervention and Iranian threats to critical chokepoints indicate that the Middle East is entering a prolonged period of elevated instability. The rerouting of maritime traffic around the Cape of Good Hope and flight cancellations are immediate indicators of this new reality. Global energy and trade markets will likely experience sustained volatility and increased costs. Businesses and governments reliant on these routes will need to factor in higher insurance premiums, longer transit times, and potential disruptions, leading to a re-evaluation of global supply chain resilience and diversification strategies. This conflict, therefore, has far-reaching economic consequences that extend well beyond the immediate region.
Evolving Strategic Balance and Deterrence Posture
The direct involvement of the US signals a significant shift in Washington’s posture, increasing the likelihood of sustained Iranian retaliation against US personnel, assets, and allies in the region. In response, the US military has deployed additional fighter jets and refueling tankers to the region, and bases are on heightened alert. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that the operation’s scope was “intentionally limited,” intended to send a specific message. General Kurilla emphasized that the US is “transitioning from security guarantor to security integrator” in the Middle East, necessitating a “sufficient and a sustainable posture” and improved foreign military sales to partners. Bryan Clark notes that Iran is “weaker and more vulnerable than it has been in decades,” with its proxies suffering major losses and expended missile inventories. The conflict presents significant geopolitical and economic risks, particularly in the energy, shipping, and security sectors, requiring ongoing monitoring and readiness for unforeseen circumstances.
Outlook for De-escalation or Further Conflict
The prospects for de-escalation remain precarious. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed grave alarm, warning of a “dangerous escalation” and a “growing risk that this conflict could rapidly get out of control — with catastrophic consequences”. While UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer emphasized de-escalation and negotiating a solution, simultaneously moving military equipment to protect UK interests , US Vice President JD Vance stated that America has “no interest in boots on the ground” and does not fear a “protracted conflict,” viewing the attacks as an “opportunity for the Iranians to take the smart path” towards talks. However, Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi countered that the US attacks “will have everlasting consequences” and have “blown up any possibility of diplomacy”. Regional security experts like Mohammed Albasha anticipate “symbolic retaliation rather than full-scale escalation,” but also caution that “nothing can be ruled out”.
The challenge of de-escalation in this multi-actor conflict is substantial. Despite US assurances of “limited scope” and “no interest in protracted conflict” , and calls for de-escalation from international bodies, Iran’s strong rhetoric and its proxy network capabilities make rapid de-escalation difficult. The involvement of multiple state and non-state actors (Israel, US, UK, Iran, Houthis, Hezbollah) creates a complex web of interests and potential triggers. This conflict is highly susceptible to miscalculation and unintended escalation, where even “symbolic retaliation” could trigger further responses, leading to a tit-for-tat dynamic. The absence of direct communication channels between the US and Iran, coupled with differing interpretations of “deterrence” and “peace,” exacerbates this risk. International diplomacy remains crucial but faces significant hurdles in bridging the chasm created by direct military action.
Furthermore, the situation presents a paradox of Iranian weakness and asymmetric strength. While experts like Bryan Clark and General McKenzie assert that Iran is “weaker and more vulnerable than it has been in decades” in terms of conventional military capabilities , its capacity for asymmetric warfare through proxies and disruption of maritime chokepoints remains a significant threat. This creates a scenario where conventional military superiority does not guarantee security. Consequently, the US and its allies cannot rely solely on conventional military might to achieve their objectives or ensure regional stability. A comprehensive strategy must address Iran’s asymmetric capabilities, its proxy networks, and its willingness to leverage economic chokepoints. This requires not only military readiness but also robust intelligence, cyber defense, and diplomatic efforts to counter malign influence and de-escalate proxy conflicts.
Conclusion and Strategic Considerations
The US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities represent a critical juncture in Middle East security, marked by direct US military intervention and a heightened risk of regional escalation. The operation, “Midnight Hammer,” saw the US directly join Israel’s campaign against Iran’s nuclear program, employing advanced bunker-busting bombs and submarine-launched Tomahawk missiles against Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan. The US Navy’s submarine force played a critical, covert role in these precision strikes, demonstrating deep-strike capabilities. This, coupled with significant surface fleet deployments, including two Carrier Strike Groups and multiple destroyers, underscores a substantial increase in US naval presence and strategic focus on the Middle East.
In response, Iran has vowed retaliation against US interests and threatened to disrupt critical global shipping lanes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, through its own capabilities and proxy networks. Expert assessments regarding the long-term effectiveness of the strikes are mixed; while the facilities are severely damaged, analysts differ on whether this constitutes a definitive end to Iran’s nuclear ambitions or merely a significant setback that necessitates a protracted containment strategy.
Based on this analysis, several strategic considerations emerge:
  • Sustained Deterrence and Force Protection: The US must maintain a robust and adaptable force posture in the region, particularly for naval assets, to deter both conventional and asymmetric Iranian retaliation. This includes enhanced intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) to detect proxy activities and potential maritime threats. General Kurilla’s emphasis on continuous posture assessments and adjustments is crucial for mitigating risks to US forces and allies.
  • Navigating Maritime Chokepoints: The US Navy’s 5th Fleet must remain vigilant and prepared to ensure freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. This may necessitate the development of new operational concepts and reinforced international cooperation to counter Iran’s potential use of naval mines and fast boats, as well as Houthi missile and drone threats. The economic implications of any disruption must be thoroughly integrated into strategic planning.
  • Long-Term Nuclear Containment Strategy: The strikes have likely set back Iran’s nuclear program by years, but they do not eliminate the “knowledge gain”. A sustained, multi-pronged strategy involving persistent intelligence gathering, diplomatic isolation, and strict multilateral sanctions will be necessary to prevent Iran from rebuilding or dispersing its nuclear infrastructure. Michael Eisenstadt’s view of a “lengthy campaign” should guide this enduring effort.
  • Managing Escalation Pathways: Given the high risk of unintended escalation in a multi-actor environment, clear de-escalation pathways and communication channels, even indirect ones, should be explored. The US should continue to emphasize the limited scope of its actions and its non-regime change objective to prevent miscalculation and unintended responses from Tehran.
  • Strengthening Regional Partnerships: Continued efforts to integrate regional partners into a collective security framework, as advocated by General Kurilla , are vital for shared defense and burden-sharing against Iranian aggression and its proxies. This collaborative approach enhances regional stability and distributes the burden of maintaining security in a volatile environment.

Trump Signs Executive Order to Revitalize U.S. Shipbuilding


A Turning Point for America’s Maritime Strength

In a bold move aimed at restoring America’s maritime edge, President Donald Trump signed an executive order today (April 9, 2025) designed to revitalize the U.S. shipbuilding industry and reduce China’s growing control over the global shipping supply chain. The order calls for sweeping changes across trade, industry investment, and national security infrastructure—setting the stage for long-term renewal of America’s commercial and naval shipping capabilities.

What the Executive Order Includes

The new executive order establishes:

Maritime Security Trust Fund
A dedicated fund to provide stable, long-term investment in shipbuilding, shipyards, dry docks, and repair facilities. Potential funding sources include tariffs, fines, port fees, and other federal revenue streams.

Port Fees on Chinese-Linked Ships
Ships flagged by China or built in Chinese shipyards may soon face significant docking fees at U.S. ports. The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) is expected to finalize this remedy by mid-April. Allies will also be encouraged to implement similar restrictions.

Tariffs on Chinese-Made Cargo Equipment
The order directs the USTR to consider imposing tariffs on ship-to-shore cranes and cargo handling gear manufactured or assembled in China—or made with Chinese-controlled components anywhere in the world.

Enforcement of Harbor Maintenance Fees
To prevent workarounds, Homeland Security will crack down on companies trying to avoid U.S. fees by routing shipments through Mexico and Canada before transporting them across land borders.

Incentives for U.S. Shipyard Investment
The executive order includes provisions for incentivizing private sector investment in new or revitalized U.S. shipyards, commercial ship components, and critical maritime infrastructure.

Why Americans Should Care

The United States currently produces less than 1% of the world’s commercial ships—while China builds about 50%. In 1999, China’s share was just 5%. This trend has massive implications not just for economic competitiveness, but for national security and maritime logistics.

As President Trump put it:
“We used to build a ship a day, and now we don’t build a ship a year, practically. We have the capacity to do it.”

This executive order is more than policy—it’s a call to action.

Implications for the Navy

While the executive order does not explicitly mention the U.S. Navy, its impact on naval readiness and strategic capability is unmistakable. Revitalizing America’s commercial shipbuilding infrastructure strengthens the industrial base the Navy relies on for new construction, maintenance, and repairs. Investments in dry docks, skilled labor, and cargo handling capabilities bolster our ability to support fleet operations—especially in times of crisis.

Moreover, reducing reliance on Chinese-built shipping equipment and infrastructure directly supports U.S. naval strategy. It limits vulnerabilities in ports and logistics chains, while reinforcing America’s control over critical maritime assets. A stronger shipbuilding sector means a stronger Navy, even if it’s not named in the order.

Implications for Our Allies

The executive order sends a message to America’s allies: We are serious about maritime strength and expect partners to do the same. With Chinese-built vessels operating across global supply chains, coordinated action could limit strategic vulnerabilities and encourage diversified, allied-aligned shipping infrastructure.

A Statement from Americans for a Stronger Navy

“This executive order is a long-overdue step toward restoring our nation’s ability to build and maintain the ships we depend on for both commerce and defense. The Navy does not operate in a vacuum—it needs a healthy, resilient industrial base. America must lead again on the seas, not just militarily, but commercially. This is how we secure freedom of navigation, economic stability, and peace through strength.”
— Bill Cullifer, founder, Americans for a Stronger Navy

Your Voice Matters

This is our moment. Let’s celebrate the executive order—but keep pushing until America leads on the seas again. Congress must act, industry must respond, and Americans must stay engaged.

Sign up to be part of the movement. It’s free. A stronger Navy begins with a stronger nation.


Aegis Combat System Proves It Can Counter Hypersonic Threats


Introduction.

On March 24, 2025, the USS Pinckney (DDG 91) made history. Off the coast of Kauai, Hawaii, the Navy successfully completed Flight Test Other-40 (FTX-40)—also known as Stellar Banshee—using the Aegis Combat System to detect and simulate engagement with a hypersonic missile threat. This test is a major milestone in the United States’ ability to defend against rapidly emerging threats from near-peer adversaries like China and Russia, both of whom are investing heavily in hypersonic technology.

Test Details: Simulating the Future of Warfare

A Medium Range Ballistic Missile (MRBM) equipped with a Hypersonic Target Vehicle (HTV-1) was air-launched from a C-17 aircraft. The USS Pinckney used a simulated SM-6 Block IAU interceptor and Lockheed Martin’s latest Aegis Baseline 9 software to detect, track, and engage the target. While no live intercept occurred, the simulated engagement offered critical insights and data collection, validating the system’s ability to counter maneuvering hypersonic threats.

This test also previewed the system’s scalability. Aegis can be deployed at sea or on land—key flexibility in a complex global security environment. The test utilized a virtualized Aegis software configuration, a leap forward in adapting the system for next-generation warfare.

Building on Momentum: Past Successes and What’s Next

FTX-40 follows the success of FTM-32, known as Stellar Sisyphus, in which the USS Preble (DDG 88) intercepted a MRBM with an upgraded SM-6 Dual II missile in a live-fire test. These continued advancements will pave the way for FTM-43, which will aim to perform a live intercept against an HTV-1 target.

The collaboration between the U.S. Navy, the Missile Defense Agency (MDA), Lockheed Martin, and other defense partners signals a renewed commitment to innovation and integrated missile defense.

Why Americans Should Care

Hypersonic missiles travel at speeds greater than Mach 5, can maneuver mid-flight, and are extremely hard to detect and counter with traditional systems. Adversaries like China and Russia are rapidly developing and testing these weapons. If successful, these weapons could bypass our current defenses and strike critical infrastructure, fleets, or even the homeland.

This test shows that the United States is not standing still. Our Navy is preparing for tomorrow’s battles—today. The Aegis Combat System’s evolving capabilities directly protect American service members at sea, allies abroad, and Americans at home. It’s another reason why investment in a stronger Navy isn’t optional—it’s essential.

Implications for the Navy

This test reinforces the Aegis system as the backbone of the Navy’s integrated air and missile defense strategy. With its growing flexibility, the system can support both forward-deployed naval units and U.S.-based missile defense installations. It also helps the Navy operate in contested environments—areas where hypersonic threats are expected to become commonplace.

Implications for Our Allies

Many of our closest allies—Japan, South Korea, Australia—also rely on Aegis-equipped ships or similar missile defense systems. Demonstrating this capability strengthens not only U.S. deterrence but also our credibility with partners. In a world where multilateral defense cooperation is key, proof of performance matters.

Closing Thought

FTX-40 didn’t just simulate a hypersonic intercept—it sent a clear message: The United States Navy is adapting and preparing to meet new challenges head-on. For Americans watching the headlines, this is a win worth knowing—and a mission worth supporting.


People Powering Progress: The U.S. Navy’s Smart Approach to Modernization

For years, America’s Navy has been a punching bag for criticism, often seen as slow to modernize or inefficient in spending. While scrutiny is necessary, it’s time to tell the other side of the story—the one about the thousands of dedicated Navy personnel and industry professionals working relentlessly to ensure the fleet remains strong, cost-effective, and mission-ready.

One of the best examples of this commitment is the Navy’s rapid deployment of Counter-Unmanned Aircraft System (C-UAS) capabilities aboard USS Indianapolis (LCS 17). Instead of developing an entirely new system at great expense, the Navy and its partners took a smarter approach—upgrading the existing Surface-to-Surface Missile Module (SSMM) to counter drone threats in contested environments.

Real People, Real Impact

This isn’t just about technology—it’s about people.

  • Navy officers and sailors who are actively testing and deploying these systems in real-world operations.
  • Engineers and defense contractors working behind the scenes to ensure the technology is reliable, cost-effective, and adaptable.
  • Strategists and policymakers balancing modernization with budget efficiency, ensuring that America’s Navy is both powerful and financially responsible.

Capt. Matthew Lehmann, program manager for LCS Mission Modules, highlighted this teamwork:
“By leveraging the adaptability of proven technologies in partnership with the Integrated Warfare Systems 80 program office, we were able to deliver on a critical need to the Fleet. This accomplishment showcases the ingenuity and resourcefulness of the Littoral Combat Ship Mission Module Program.”

Smart Spending in a Scrutinized Budget

At a time when leaders like former President Trump and business mogul Elon Musk are calling for greater accountability in defense spending, the Navy is proving that modernization doesn’t have to mean runaway costs.

  • The SSMM upgrade shows that the Navy is reusing and improving existing systems rather than building from scratch.
  • By integrating AI-driven detection, modular sensors, and open-architecture systems, upgrades remain adaptable and cost-efficient.
  • Industry partnerships with Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and General Atomics ensure that new technology is integrated without unnecessary government overhead.

Rear Adm. Kevin Smith summed it up best:
“This rapid integration of C-UAS capabilities enhances our ability to project power and maintain freedom of maneuver in contested environments. We are not only addressing immediate threats but also strengthening the Navy’s overall strategy for operational agility, deterrence, and sustained dominance.”

Industry & Navy Partnership Driving Innovation

Modernizing the U.S. Navy isn’t just a military effort—it’s a collaborative mission between dedicated sailors and some of the most advanced technology companies in the country. Industry leaders like Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and General Atomics are bringing cutting-edge AI, automation, and drone defense solutions to the fleet. These partnerships ensure that modernization is not just about spending money—it’s about getting the best value for every dollar spent while equipping our Navy with the tools needed to stay ahead of emerging threats.

Key industry players include:

  1. Lockheed Martin – Developing scalable counter-unmanned aerial systems (C-UAS) with AI-driven detection, modular sensors, and command-and-control systems.
  2. Northrop Grumman – Contracted to develop C-UAS solutions for the Navy.
  3. General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc. (GA-ASI)Testing government-provided autonomy software aboard the MQ-20 Avenger, demonstrating potential advances in Unmanned Combat Air Vehicles (UCAVs).
  4. uAvionix – Developed Casia G, enabling 24/7 Beyond Visual Line of Sight (BVLOS) drone operations.
  5. Volatus Aerospace & Draganfly – Enhancing geospatial and automation capabilities.
  6. Pierce Aerospace – Working on Remote ID detection technology to identify unauthorized drones.

A Message from Americans for a Stronger Navy

“This isn’t just about hardware—it’s about the people who believe in a stronger, more cost-effective Navy. From the sailors aboard the USS Indianapolis to the engineers at Lockheed Martin, thousands of Americans are working every day to ensure the Navy remains a force to be reckoned with—without wasting taxpayer dollars.

We at Americans for a Stronger Navy believe this is the kind of smart, strategic modernization that deserves recognition. Our Navy isn’t just adapting to today’s threats—it’s building a foundation for a stronger, smarter future. This is what peace through strength looks like.”

Final Call to Action: Join the Conversation

At Americans for a Stronger Navy, we believe in supporting the hardworking sailors, engineers, and industry partners who are ensuring the Navy remains strong, modern, and cost-effective. But we can’t do it alone.

Engage with us—Share your thoughts on what a stronger, smarter Navy looks like.
Spread the word—Help shift the narrative to recognize the real efforts behind modernization.
Stay informed—Follow us for updates on how the Navy is adapting to new challenges.

💬 What do you think? Let us know in the comments or visit StrongerNavy.org to learn more. Join the discussion on X.

Join the movement.


An Open Letter to America: The Future of U.S. Shipbuilding and Naval Strength

Dear Fellow Americans,

We stand at a crossroads in our nation’s history—one that will determine the future of our Navy, our national security, and the very strength of our industrial base. The question before us is clear: Should we rebuild our naval shipbuilding capabilities here at home, seek foreign assistance, or attempt a hybrid approach?

This is not just a debate about policy. It’s a decision that affects every American—from those who serve at sea to the workers who build our ships, to the families and businesses that rely on safe and open trade routes secured by the U.S. Navy.

A Crisis Decades in the Making

The United States Navy, once unrivaled, now finds itself struggling to maintain a fleet large enough to meet global threats. At the same time, our domestic shipbuilding industry has shrunk to a fraction of its former strength.

  • Fewer Shipyards: During World War II, the U.S. built a ship a day. Now, we are lucky to produce a handful of warships per year due to limited shipyard capacity.
  • Aging Repair Facilities: The few remaining naval repair yards are overburdened and outdated, leading to costly maintenance delays.
  • Worker Shortages: The skilled workforce needed to build and maintain ships has dwindled, leaving shipyards struggling to meet demand.
  • Rising Threats: China now produces more naval tonnage every year than the U.S. does in a decade. Russia and other adversaries are also modernizing their fleets.

The urgency is real. The Navy’s shipbuilding plan is behind schedule, over budget, and falling short of strategic needs. Simply put, we need more ships, more shipyards, and more skilled workers to build and sustain them.

The Debate: Build Here, Look Abroad, or Both?

President-elect Donald Trump recently suggested leaning on allies to help build U.S. Navy ships. His words have sparked a debate with far-reaching consequences.

There are three paths forward:

1. Fully Rebuild U.S. Shipbuilding Capacity (America First Approach)

  • Invest in more shipyards and repair facilities to increase production.
  • Expand apprenticeship and workforce training programs to address skilled labor shortages.
  • Modernize naval infrastructure to improve efficiency and speed of delivery.

Pros: Strengthens U.S. industry, creates jobs, ensures security.
Cons: Takes time, requires significant investment.

2. Use Allied Shipyards for Basic Infrastructure (Hybrid Approach)

  • Partner with allies (e.g., Japan, South Korea, Italy) to build less complex vessels while reserving warship production for U.S. yards.
  • Temporarily relieve the burden on U.S. shipyards while domestic capacity is rebuilt.

Pros: Speeds up production, allows time for U.S. shipbuilding expansion.
Cons: Security risks, reliance on foreign suppliers, potential job losses.

3. Fully Outsource Basic Infrastructure (Foreign Assistance Approach)

  • Contract allied nations to build support ships and basic naval infrastructure abroad.
  • Focus U.S. shipyards solely on high-end warship production.

Pros: Short-term boost in fleet numbers, cost savings.
Cons: Weakens U.S. shipbuilding industry, risks foreign dependency.

What’s at Stake?

No matter which path we take, one fact remains: The U.S. Navy needs more ships—and we need them faster. The growing threats on the world stage do not wait for political debates or bureaucratic delays.

America must decide:

  • Do we commit to fully restoring our shipbuilding industry, investing in shipyards, repair facilities, and workforce training?
  • Do we pursue a temporary partnership with allies to fill immediate gaps?
  • Do we accept foreign-built support ships, potentially at the cost of domestic industry?

This is not just a decision for policymakers—it is a choice for every American. The strength of our Navy is the strength of our nation.

A Call to Action

We need a national shipbuilding strategy that prioritizes American security, economic resilience, and industrial strength.

  • Expand our domestic shipbuilding capacity.
  • Modernize and build more repair facilities.
  • Train and recruit more American workers to sustain naval readiness.
  • Ensure the Navy has the fleet it needs to protect global commerce and national security.

History shows us that when America builds, America wins. The decision before us will shape the Navy for generations to come. Let’s make sure it’s a future built on strength.
Americans for a Stronger Navy
StrongerNavy.org. Join the discussion on X.com/strongernavy


An Open Letter: Forward Presence is Not the Problem—Fleet Size Is

An Open Letter: Forward Presence is Not the Problem—Fleet Size Is

To the Editors of War on the Rocks and Dr. Jonathan Panter,

Bill Cullifer, Founder
Bill Cullifer, Founder

Your recent commentary argues that naval forward presence is to blame for the U.S. Navy’s inability to deter China and sustain high-end warfighting capacity. While your article correctly identifies the exhaustion and strain imposed by relentless deployments, it misdiagnoses the cause and proposes a dangerous solution.

The problem is not forward presence—it’s fleet size, maintenance shortfalls, and a lack of leadership advocacy for real change.

“It is both realistic and very necessary to maintain forward presence while preparing for high-end conflict.”
— Captain Brent D. Sadler, USN (Ret.), Senior Fellow, Heritage Foundation

“The U.S. fleet size to support that deployment has significantly decreased since 1990.”
— Captain Steven Wills, USN (Ret.), Senior Advisor, Center for Maritime Strategy

A Shrinking Navy, An Expanding Mission

The numbers tell the real story:

  • ✅ In 1991: The U.S. Navy had 550 ships. Today, it has fewer than 290—a nearly 50% decline.
  • ✅ During the Cold War: Only one-fifth of the fleet was forward deployed. Today, it’s one-third, meaning fewer ships are doing more work.
  • ✅ Maintenance Shortfalls: The Navy has lost critical shore-based infrastructure, making it difficult to sustain current commitments—let alone expand.

Meanwhile, China’s threat has grown, not receded:

  • ✅ China’s Navy: Surpassed 340 ships in 2023 and continues expanding.
  • ✅ Indo-Pacific: Now the primary theater of strategic competition—where U.S. presence is more critical than ever.

The Wrong Solution: Scaling Back Presence

The argument that pulling back from forward deployment would somehow strengthen the Navy by reducing strain is not just wrong—it’s dangerous.

A reduced forward presence does not deter China—it emboldens it.

Beijing is already testing U.S. resolve in the South China Sea, Taiwan Strait, and beyond. A withdrawal would send a clear signal:

America is retreating.

That is not a path to deterrence—it’s a path to ceding maritime dominance to an adversary actively working to reshape the global order.

The Right Solution: A Bigger, More Sustainable Navy

Rather than abandoning forward presence, we must fix the real problem: our shrinking, overstretched fleet.

That means:

  • ✅ Growing the Fleet: Expand to at least 355 ships—endorsed repeatedly by military leaders.
  • ✅ Rebuilding Shore Support: Reinvest in shipyards, dry docks, and logistics infrastructure.
  • ✅ Leadership Advocacy: Navy leaders must demand either more ships or fewer assignments, not accept the status quo.
  • ✅ Congressional Action: Congress must prioritize fleet expansion over short-term cuts.

Conclusion: We Need More Ships, Not Fewer Commitments

Your commentary correctly highlights that the U.S. Navy is stretched thin and struggling to sustain global operations. But forward presence is not the problem. The real issue is that we are trying to maintain it with a fleet too small to sustain the mission.

For more than 75 years, forward-deployed U.S. naval forces have prevented conflict, reassured allies, and ensured maritime security. Scaling back presence does not fix the strain—it accelerates decline and weakens deterrence at the worst possible moment.

“If the United States is serious about deterring China, protecting global stability, and upholding its commitments, the answer is clear: Build a larger, more capable, and better-supported Navy.”

Educating the Public: Our Responsibility

The problem is not just military—it’s political and public awareness.

Too many Americans don’t realize how naval power secures our national and economic security. Without public pressure, there will be no political will to rebuild the fleet.

That’s why we at Americans for a Stronger Navy are launching:

“China, Russia, and America: Navigating Global Rivalries and Naval Challenges”

In our upcoming educational series, we will tackle the most pressing issues facing U.S. naval power, including:

  • ✅ The Role of Naval Power in Preventing Global Conflict
  • ✅ Economic & Strategic Impact of a Shrinking Fleet
  • ✅ China & Russia’s Naval Expansion and the Strategic Threat
  • ✅ U.S. Shipbuilding Crisis: Causes and Solutions
  • ✅ Congressional Accountability: Who’s Responsible for the Shrinking Fleet?

This isn’t just a discussion—it’s a call to action.

To naval leadership, policymakers, and media: Stop pretending all is well. Demand action before the Navy reaches a breaking point.

To the American public: Get informed. Get involved. A strong Navy is not just for the military—it’s for every American who benefits from global stability.

The U.S. Navy’s forward presence is not a luxury—it’s a necessity.

The problem is not the strategy—it’s the lack of resources to sustain it.

If the U.S. wants to deter China, protect its interests, and maintain global stability, the answer is clear: Build a stronger, larger, better-supported, and more capable Navy.

We urge the administration, Congress, and military leadership to acknowledge reality:

Our commitments are not too big—our Navy is too small.

Sincerely,  Bill Cullifer
Founder, Americans for a Stronger Navy