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Welcome to ‘Charting the Course: Navigating the Future of American Naval Power’.
Today, we’re thrilled to have Dr. Sam Tangredi, the esteemed Leidos Chair of Future Warfare Studies and Director of the Institute for Future Warfare Studies at the U.S. Naval War College.
Dr. Tangredi, a former U.S. Navy captain and strategist, brings a wealth of experience and insight.
He holds a Ph.D. in international relations from the University of Southern California and is an award-winning author, having penned significant works such as “AI at War: How Big Data, Artificial Intelligence, and Machine Learning Are Changing Naval Warfare”, and “Anti-Access Warfare: Countering A2/AD Strategies”.
His contributions to naval literature have earned him the U.S. Naval Institute’s Arleigh Burke Prize and the U.S. Navy League’s Alfred Thayer Mahan Award.
In this session, Dr. Tangredi will illuminate the profound impact and implications of emerging technologies on the future of naval warfare and seapower.
He will delve into the roles of artificial intelligence, big data, and machine learning, guiding us through the complex landscape of modern naval strategies and challenges.
Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) sets anchors in Manila, Philippines. USS Carl Vinson is in the Philippines for a port visit, supporting operational readiness and regional partnerships.
To Members and Friends,
In these rapidly evolving times, the strategic landscape of the South China Sea is more critical than ever to our national security and maritime interests. Recent events in this region, coupled with the burgeoning naval capabilities of our potential adversaries, underline the urgency of our mission at “Americans for a Stronger Navy.”
Rising Tensions in the South China Sea
The South China Sea, a hub of global maritime traffic and rich in resources, has become a focal point for international power dynamics. The U.S. and China have conducted significant military exercises in these waters, signaling the area’s strategic importance. This tense atmosphere was further amplified by a recent collision involving Philippine and Chinese vessels near a disputed reef, highlighting the area’s volatility.
China’s Escalating Naval Dominance
As reported in the Jan. 2 issue of the Wall Street Journal by Seth G. Jones of CSIS, the Chinese navy’s expansion is a cause for concern. Not limited to the sheer number of ships, China’s ominous growth in shipbuilding capacity is particularly alarming. With a staggering capacity of 23 million tons, one Chinese shipyard on Changxing Island alone surpasses the combined capacity of all U.S. shipyards. This disparity in shipbuilding capabilities is a stark reminder of the challenges we face in maintaining our naval strength and readiness.
Global Defense Spending: A Comparative Analysis
In the shadow of these developments, nations like Japan have significantly increased their defense budgets in response to Chinese expansionism.
Japan’s defense allocation now stands at USD 47.7 billion, a 16.5% increase. However, when compared to China’s defense expenditure of USD 292 billion in 2022 (as reported by SIPRI), the imbalance becomes evident.
The United States, with a defense budget of $877 billion, continues to lead in absolute terms, but when viewed as a percentage of GDP, our current spending of 3% is notably lower than historical highs during previous administrations.
Why Should America Care
The implications of these developments extend far beyond the territorial disputes of the South China Sea. They touch upon fundamental aspects of international law, freedom of navigation, and the global balance of power. The United States, with its longstanding commitment to these principles, must view the situation in the South China Sea as a barometer for broader geopolitical shifts.
Conclusion
In light of Seth G. Jones’ report and the ongoing developments in the South China Sea, it’s evident that our mission is more pertinent than ever. The gap in shipbuilding capacity, coupled with the varying levels of defense expenditure globally, highlights the need for a robust and forward-looking U.S. naval strategy. We must advocate for the resources and policies necessary to ensure that our Navy remains capable of meeting these emerging challenges.
As we face these uncertain times, your support and engagement with “Americans for a Stronger Navy” are invaluable. Together, we stand vigilant, advocating for a Navy that is not only strong today but is prepared for the challenges of tomorrow.
For Freedom and Security, Americans for a Stronger Navy
Houthi Missiles and Drones Threaten Red Sea Shipping, Endangering Global Trade and the US Navy
Recent Attack:
On December 26, 2023, three commercial ships in the Red Sea were struck by ballistic missiles fired from Houthi-controlled Yemen. The US Navy responded by shooting down three drones launched by the Iranian-backed rebel group. This latest attack highlights the ongoing threat posed by the Houthis to this vital shipping lane, which carries about 10% of the world’s trade and 5% of its oil.
The Houthi Threat:
The Houthis are a Shia Muslim minority group in Yemen that has been fighting the internationally recognized government since 2014, with support from Iran. They control large parts of the country, including the capital Sanaa and the port of Hodeidah. They have also launched hundreds of drone and missile attacks on Saudi Arabia, which leads a coalition of Arab states supporting the Yemeni government.
Strategic Importance of the Red Sea:
The Red Sea is a critical waterway connecting the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean. It is used by ships from Europe, Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, carrying essential goods like oil, gas, food, and weapons. The Bab al-Mandab Strait, a narrow chokepoint at the southern entrance to the Red Sea, is only 18 miles wide at its narrowest point. This strategic location makes the Red Sea crucial for the US Navy, which uses it to access the Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf, where it maintains a strong presence to counter Iran and protect its allies.
Houthi Justifications and Weapons:
The Houthis claim their attacks on ships are in response to the Saudi-led blockade of Yemen, which has caused a devastating humanitarian crisis. They also claim to target vessels linked to Israel, in solidarity with the Palestinians. However, these claims lack evidence, and the Houthis have shown disregard for the civilian and commercial nature of the ships they attack.
The Houthis use sophisticated weapons, including anti-ship cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and explosive-laden drones, believed to be supplied by Iran.
US Navy Response and Challenges:
The US Navy monitors and responds to Houthi attacks to ensure freedom of navigation and maritime security. It has deployed warships like the USS Eisenhower aircraft carrier and destroyers to the Red Sea, intercepting and shooting down Houthi missiles and drones. The Navy also launched a global patrol mission in December 2023 to protect ships from the Houthi threat and collaborates with allies like the UK, France, and Japan.
However, the Navy faces challenges:
Balancing resources with other regional threats.
Operating in a complex and congested environment.
Respecting international law and the sovereignty of other countries.
Implications and Consequences:
The Houthi attacks have significant implications:
Growing Iranian influence and aggression in the region.
Increased sophistication and capability of the Houthis.
Vulnerability of the Red Sea as a strategic waterway and trade route.
Potential for economic and environmental damage.
Escalation of conflict and instability in the region.
Need for the US Navy to maintain its presence and cooperate with allies.
Why America Should Care:
The Houthi attacks matter to America because they:
Affect national security and economic prosperity.
Reflect values like freedom, democracy, and human rights.
Represent an opportunity to promote peace and stability in the region.
Conclusion:
The Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea pose a serious threat to global trade and the US Navy. The US Navy is responding to these attacks but faces challenges. America should care about this issue due to its potential impact on national security, economic prosperity, and global values.
In the vast expanse of our oceans, a groundbreaking discovery has been made, shedding light on what has been hidden in plain sight. A recent study by Global Fishing Watch, backed by Google, has unveiled an astonishing level of previously untracked human activity at sea, posing significant implications for maritime policy, environmental conservation, and national security.
Unveiling the Unseen
Researchers utilized AI and satellite data to reveal that a staggering 72 to 76 percent of the world’s industrial fishing vessels, along with a significant portion of transport and energy vessel activity, were not being tracked by public systems. This study, involving a massive analysis of 2 million gigabytes of satellite imagery across six continents, highlights the collaboration among Global Fishing Watch, the University of Wisconsin-Madison, Duke University, UC Santa Barbara, and SkyTruth. The findings also showed a large presence of ‘dark fleets’ in marine protected areas and in countries previously believed to have minimal vessel activity.
Why This Matters
The discovery of such a high number of ‘dark vessels’ raises critical concerns about overfishing, illegal activities, and the environmental impact of unregulated maritime operations. The study revealed a stark discrepancy in fishing activity between Asia and Europe, illustrating the scale of unmonitored fishing activities and the need for improved surveillance and tracking systems
Implications for the Navy
This revelation has several key implications for naval operations:
Enhanced Surveillance and Security: Adapting surveillance techniques to effectively monitor these vessels is crucial for maritime security.
Maritime Domain Awareness: The data aids in understanding traffic patterns and deploying naval resources more effectively.
Environmental Protection Role: The Navy could enforce environmental regulations at sea.
International Collaboration: The findings highlight the importance of global cooperation in maritime surveillance.
Technological Advancements: This could inspire the use of similar AI and satellite imagery technologies in naval operations.
Should Americans Care?
Absolutely. The security and sustainability of our oceans have direct impacts on national security, economic stability, and environmental health. The study’s technology can be used to combat climate change, improving estimates of greenhouse gas emissions at sea and guiding wind development.
Conclusion
The open data and technology used in the study can help governments, researchers, and civil society to identify hotspots of potentially illegal activity, determine where industrial fishing vessels may be encroaching on artisanal fishing grounds, or simply better understand vessel traffic in their waters. Supported by Bloomberg Philanthropies, National Geographic Pristine Seas, Oceankind, and Google, this study marks the beginning of a new era in ocean management and transparency.
This study is a wake-up call to the hidden realities of our oceans and a call to action for enhanced global maritime governance and technological advancements in ocean monitoring.
Welcome to ‘Charting the Course: Navigating the Future of American Naval Power’.
In this insightful episode, we have the honor of featuring Dr. Bruce Jones, a distinguished expert from the Talbot Center on Security, Strategy, and Technology, and the Center on East Asia Policy. Dr. Jones, known for his acclaimed work ‘To Rule the Waves’, brings a wealth of knowledge to our discussion on the critical issues shaping maritime power in our rapidly evolving global landscape.
Join us as we continue ‘Charting the Course’ for American Naval Power, exploring how maritime trade and security are pivotal in shaping the world order.”
In our dynamic global environment, we explore pressing questions:
Are we entering a new era of maritime power struggles due to climate change and intensified sea-based globalization?
What constitutes ‘ruling the waves’ in terms of maritime shipping dominance? How are factors like ship ownership, port control, and trade flow interconnected?
Dr. Jones discusses the vulnerability of container-based supply chains. Can he provide a specific incident of piracy or disruption that caused substantial economic impact?
What emerging threats, such as cyberattacks, climate disruptions, and political instability, are facing container shipping, and how can the US Navy and other stakeholders respond?
How will technological advancements like automation and AI reshape the future of container shipping, and what are the implications for efficiency, security, and workforce dynamics?
What is the current state of global trade, naval power, and the impact of climate change on oceans? What challenges and implications do these trends pose for the future world order?
Finally, how does the history of maritime trade and power mirror the patterns of post–Cold War globalization, with historical examples to support this relation?
The Philippine and US Navy have initiated high-stakes joint maritime drills in the South China Sea, as regional tensions with China continue to escalate. This marks a significant step in defense cooperation between the two nations.
Joint Maritime Exercise Details
The drills, starting on January 3, 2024, are the second such exercise in less than two months, highlighting the increasing frequency and intensity of military cooperation in the face of Chinese assertiveness in the region. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has been actively strengthening defense ties with the US, as well as other allies like Japan and Australia, in response to China’s expansive claims over the South China Sea.
NHK World-Japan has confirmed that the Philippines and the United States began a two-day joint patrol in the South China Sea, underscoring the ongoing dispute in the region.
The Japan Times has reported that China conducted navy and air force patrols in the South China Sea, coinciding with the maritime drills by the U.S. and the Philippines in the same
China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi has expressed concerns over these developments, indicating “serious difficulties” in Beijing-Manila relations. The exercises included a variety of naval maneuvers and operations, involving multiple vessels and aircraft from both nations, aimed at enhancing interoperability and sending a strong message about the commitment to a rules-based international order and a free and open Indo-Pacific region.
Takeaways
Increased Frequency of Drills: The recent exercises underscore a growing pattern of joint military operations in the region.
Strengthening Alliances: The Philippines is actively enhancing defense relations with the US and other regional powers.
China’s Reaction: China’s response to these drills indicates a growing concern and potential diplomatic strain with the Philippines.
Focus on a Rules-based Order: The drills are a clear message to uphold international maritime laws and freedom of navigation in the contested waters.
The joint maritime exercises between the Philippines and the US represent a significant development in regional defense dynamics. They not only demonstrate the robustness of the Philippine-US alliance but also signify a broader commitment to maintaining stability and a rules-based order in the South China Sea amidst rising tensions.
On this Christmas Day, amidst the joy and warmth of the season, we pause to remember another kind of sacrifice: the unwavering dedication of the men and women who stand watch on the vast oceans, guardians of our freedom and keepers of the peace.
Bill Cullifer, Founder
These brave sailors, our Navy, dedicate their lives to a mission both noble and perilous. They sail amidst the ever-present dangers of the seas, facing not just the fury of nature, but the potential threats that could disrupt the fragile tapestry of global peace.
Our Commitment to Naval Power:
This Christmas, as we reflect on the values of peace and security, we at Americans for a Stronger Navy reaffirm our dedication to supporting the vital role of the U.S. Navy. Through our rich and diverse blog content, featuring expert insights and in-depth analysis, we provide a valuable resource for understanding the challenges and opportunities facing the naval domain.
Our blog delves into timely topics like the Navy’s recent success in testing unmanned surface vessels, proving its commitment to cutting-edge technology even as we celebrate Christmas. We also dive deep into emerging challenges like those faced in the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, reminding us that the Navy’s vigilance never sleeps, even during holidays. From China and Russia to the Indo-Pacific and the Aleutian Islands, we explore the spectrum of naval news and stories, featuring expert insights on technology, innovation, readiness, budget, personnel, and history. Join the conversation on how we can best support its vital mission.p
Charting the Course:
Our educational series, “Charting the Course: Navigating the Future of American Naval Power,” delves deeper into critical trends and developments shaping the future of global maritime security. Explore webinars, podcasts, and articles to discover how the Navy adapts and innovates in the face of long-term competition and emerging threats. Stay tuned for ongoing updates and join the conversation on this crucial topic.
Charting the Course features insightful discussions on a variety of topics, including:
The evolving geopolitical landscape and its implications for naval power.
Technological advancements and their impact on naval warfare.
The importance of international cooperation in maintaining maritime security.
The challenges and opportunities of recruiting and retaining a diverse and talented naval workforce.
Yet, they do not falter. They stand firm, a silent bulwark against aggression, ensuring the safe passage of trade, protecting the innocent, and safeguarding the very foundations of a world that yearns for harmony.
This Christmas, as we gather with loved ones, consider the silent sentinels on distant ships. Remember their families, who face the holidays with an aching absence, their hearts intertwined with the vast expanse of the sea.
And let us pledge, not just our gratitude, but our unwavering support. For a stronger Navy is not just a fleet of steel and technology; it is a force for good in the world, a beacon of hope that deters conflict and fosters cooperation.
That is why we, at Americans for a Stronger Navy, dedicate ourselves to advocating for the resources and capabilities our Navy needs. In our first year, we have made strides, raising awareness, building bridges, and amplifying the voices of those who understand the crucial role the Navy plays in securing our future.
We invite you to join us at StrongerNavy.org, and discover ways you can become an advocate for peace through strength. Lend your voice, your time, your resources, and together, let us build a legacy of unwavering support for the keepers of the peace.
This Christmas, let us offer not just prayers, but action. Let us honor the Navy, not just with words, but with a commitment to ensuring they have the tools they need to safeguard our freedoms and pave the way for a brighter, more peaceful world.
Merry Christmas, and may the new year bring renewed hope, enduring peace, and a Navy strong enough to protect it all.
Welcome to Charting the Course: Navigating the Future of American Naval Power’ a podcast series that dives into the past, present, and future of the U.S. Navy and its impact on the world. This episode is the third of a eight in the series where we will discuss the U.S. Navy’s Fleet Size and Composition: Challenges and Opportunities for the Future.
In a world of shifting global dynamics, the United States Navy remains a pivotal force in American defense and international maritime security. With its comprehensive array of personnel, aircraft, and ships, the Navy demonstrates remarkable capabilities and readiness to address diverse global challenges.
However, the Navy also faces the question of optimal fleet size and composition, which is more relevant than ever, particularly as it grapples with future challenges and opportunities.
In this article, we will explore the current and projected state of the U.S. Navy’s fleet size and composition, and how it relates to the national defense strategy and the global security environment.
We will also discuss the challenges and opportunities that the Navy faces in building and maintaining a larger and more capable fleet, and the potential role of unmanned systems and technology in enhancing the Navy’s force structure and posture.
We will base our analysis on the latest data and research from reliable sources, such as the RAND Corporation, a think tank that conducts research and analysis on defense and national security issues. We also seek input from other notable organizations, our members and individuals and institutions representing the American public.
The Dilemma of Fleet Expansion
Recent Congressional efforts have pushed the Navy towards expanding the size of the fleet.
For fiscal 2023, Congress added nearly 20% to the Navy’s request for shipbuilding and compelled the Navy to retain half of the 24 ships that it had hoped to retire.
While a larger fleet might seem advantageous, the reality is more complex. According to Bradley Martin and Scott Savitz, researchers at the RAND Corporation, the Navy faces the challenge of balancing the expansion with adequate funding for personnel, maintenance, and technology upgrades.
Without these, a bigger fleet could ironically lead to reduced readiness according to their report. Building more ships is a vote-winner in a number of congressional districts, but absent the personnel and support needed, additional ships could spend more time at the piers and be less capable at sea according to some.
The Navy’s budget request for fiscal 2023 was $211.7 billion, a 1.8% increase from the previous year, but still below the inflation-adjusted average of $220.6 billion since 2001.
The Navy also faces the challenge of maintaining and modernizing its existing fleet, which has an average age of 21 years, the highest since 1973.
Defining the Fleet’s Purpose
Understanding the Navy’s goals is crucial. The current fleet’s configuration is not entirely suited for low-intensity conflicts or gray-zone provocations, like those that could arise from paramilitary actions.
This gap in capabilities raises questions about the composition and size of the fleet needed for effective deterrence and response. For example, if China used its maritime militia or coast guard to coerce shipping or seize disputed islands in the South China Sea, the U.S. Navy’s overall capabilities and force structure are not designed to effectively deal with them, given a paucity of the smaller combatant ships that might be useful in such an operation.
The Navy’s fleet is largely composed of large and expensive ships, such as aircraft carriers, cruisers, destroyers, and submarines, which are optimized for high-end warfare and power projection, but may not be the best suited for lower-end scenarios.
The Navy has 299 deployable combat vessels, of which 11 areaircraft carriers, 22 are cruisers, 66 are destroyers, and 68 are submarines.
These ships are equipped with advanced weapons and sensors, such as the Aegis combat system, Tomahawk cruise missiles, and Trident ballistic missiles, which give them the ability to strike targets at long ranges and to deter or defeat potential adversaries.
However, these ships are also costly to build and maintain, and may be vulnerable to anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) threats, such as anti-ship missiles, mines, and cyberattacks, that could limit their freedom of movement and operation.
Unmanned Vessels: A Game-Changer?
The integration of unmanned vessels presents a promising yet challenging frontier. These assets could potentially offer a more balanced force structure, by providing lower-cost and more-flexible assets that can perform a range of missions, such as intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR), mine countermeasures, anti-submarine warfare, and surface warfare.
The absence of personnel aboard these systems does more than enable them to take greater risks; it also means that they can be designed solely around the mission, without needing to support the needs of human beings.
While most of them currently complement manned assets, some may be able to supplant them as confidence in their capabilities increases.
The Navy operates or plans to acquire various types and numbers of unmanned systems, such as the MQ-4C Triton and MQ-8 Fire Scout unmanned aerial vehicles, the MQ-25 Stingray unmanned aerial refueling tanker, the Orca extra-large unmanned undersea vehicle, the Sea Hunter medium unmanned surface vessel, and the Ghost Fleet Overlord large unmanned surface vessel.
These systems could enhance the Navy’s situational awareness, endurance, reach, and lethality, while reducing the risk to human lives and the strain on the budget.
However, despite the Navy’s enthusiasm for unmanned assets across multiple domains, congressional committees have often expressed reservations about their effectiveness and capabilities.
The integration challenges are significant, and the manpower demands have not actually gone down, but have instead remained steady or increased. The Navy also faces legal, ethical, and operational issues, such as the rules of engagement, the command and control, and the interoperability of unmanned systems.
Strategic Alignment
A fundamental issue for the Navy is aligning its actions and operations with overarching strategic objectives. The Navy is locked in a daily struggle with global demand, facing persistent requests from geographical combatant commanders while seeking to avoid overstretch and maintain overall readiness, which may be hampering its ability to consider the overall requirement.
The Navy’s fleet size and composition should reflect the strategic priorities and objectives of the national defense strategy, which identifies China as the most significant and long-term strategic competitor to the United States, and places a primary focus on the need to sustain and strengthen U.S. deterrence against China in the Indo-Pacific region.
The Navy should also consider the potential roles and missions that it might perform in a potential war with China or elsewhere, and the types and numbers of ships that are required for each scenario. For example, the Navy might need to conduct attacks and intelligence missions from submarines, support Marines in amphibious operations, interdict Chinese merchant traffic far from China’s shores, and deter potential aggression from other adversaries, such as Russia, North Korea, Iran, and violent extremist organizations.
The Navy should also balance the trade-offs between quantity and quality, between readiness and modernization, and between current and future capabilities, and leverage the advantages of its nuclear forces, its submarine force, its amphibious and expeditionary forces, its carrier strike groups, its surface combatants, its unmanned systems, and its logistics and support vessels.
Conclusion
The U.S. Navy’s fleet size and composition is a critical factor for its ability to fulfill its mission and to protect the nation’s interests.
The Navy faces the challenge of building and maintaining a larger and more capable fleet, while also adapting to the changing global security environment and the emerging technological trends.
The Navy also needs to align its actions and operations with the national defense strategy and the strategic objectives of the United States and its allies and partners.
The decisions made today will have far-reaching implications for the U.S. Navy and national security. As we at “Americans for a Stronger Navy” advocate, a robust, well-equipped, and strategically aligned Navy is imperative for America’s defense and global maritime dominance.
Call to Action
Join us in our mission by following along with this series that aim to support and promote a Navy that is ready for the challenges of today and prepared for the uncertainties of tomorrow. Your voice matters in shaping the future of American naval power. Please read on and follow along as we publish fresh content weekly on this blog.
In addition to questions development by the organizing committee, we have prepared the following additional questions to guide our discussion and analysis of the U.S. Navy’s fleet size and composition. We invite you to share your thoughts and feedback on this important topic, and to join us in our mission to support and promote a Navy that is ready for the challenges of today and prepared for the uncertainties of tomorrow.
• How does the U.S. Navy measure its fleet size and composition, and what are the metrics and benchmarks that it uses to assess its adequacy and effectiveness?
• How does the U.S. Navy collaborate with its allies and partners to enhance its collective security and interoperability, and what are the opportunities and challenges for burden-sharing and capability development?
• How does the U.S. Navy address the emerging and evolving threats and challenges posed by China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, and violent extremist organizations, and what are the gaps and shortfalls in its current and projected capabilities?
• How does the U.S. Navy innovate and modernize its fleet to maintain its technological edge and operational advantage, and what are the priorities and trade-offs for its research and development, acquisition, and procurement programs?
Our Distinguished Hosts:
Join Bill Cullifer, founder of Americans for a Stronger Navy, and former Destroyer Navy sailor. As a patriot, entrepreneur and podcaster, Bill brings a wealth of experience to the conversation. Alongside him will be Dale A. Jenkins, a noted Naval historian and the author of “Diplomats and Admirals.” Dale serves on the Samuel Eliot Morison Committee of the Naval Order of the United States in New York and is also a Regional Director of the Naval War College Foundation.
They’ll guide the discussions, bringing a wealth of knowledge to the series.
Speakers
We have invited leaders and experts in naval and national defense to make podcasts with us that will be posted on our website on a weekly schedule. These weekly podcasts include, Bryan Clark: Senior Fellow and Director of the Center for Defense Concepts and Technology at the Hudson Institute, Seth Cropsey: President of the Yorktown Institute, Dr. Bruce Jones: Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, Jon S. Rennie: US Navy Veteran, Business Leader, Author, and Speaker, Dr. Scott Savitz: Senior Engineer at the RAND Corporation, Dr. Sam Tangredi: Leidos Chair of Future Warfare Studies at the U.S. Naval War College. Dr. Steven Wills: Navalist for the Center for Maritime Strategy at the Navy League of the United States.
Episodes
These podcasts provide in-depth analyses on the latest weapons systems, artificial intelligence (AI), current worldwide national security strategy, force structure and adequacy of naval forces, innovation of new weapon systems and the leadership qualities needed to achieve our naval and national security goals. Vast majority of participants are former Naval officers who have taken their experience in the Navy to new endeavors.
Our podcasts will be one-hour zoom sessions, with a post-show summary with Bill and myself.
Future podcasts will continue to 8 and analyze current and future threats and challenges from China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. We will be alert for other potential threats. Defense spending and budget, weapon systems, alliances and partnerships, trade and economic policies, human rights and democracy promotion will also be explored.
The U.S. Navy destroyer Carney shot down multiple missiles and drones fired by Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen on U.S. Navy
The US Navy has a vital role in ensuring the security and stability of the Middle East and the world. However, recent events have shown that the Navy is facing new and complex threats in the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, two strategic waterways that connect Europe, Asia and Africa.
Why the Red Sea matters
The Red Sea is a narrow and shallow body of water that separates Africa from the Arabian Peninsula. It is a crucial route for global trade, as it links the Mediterranean Sea to the Indian Ocean through the Suez Canal. According to the US Energy Information Administration, about 9% of the world’s seaborne oil trade passes through the Red Sea.
The Red Sea is also a hotspot for regional conflicts and tensions. On one side, there is Yemen, where a civil war has been raging since 2014 between the internationally recognized government and the Iran-backed Houthi rebels. The Houthis have repeatedly attacked Saudi Arabia, a US ally and the leader of a coalition that supports the Yemeni government, with missiles, drones and naval mines. The Houthis have also targeted commercial ships and oil tankers in the Red Sea, posing a threat to maritime security and the global energy supply
On the other side, there is Egypt, which controls the Suez Canal and has a long-standing rivalry with Ethiopia over the Nile River. Ethiopia is building a massive hydroelectric dam on the Nile, which Egypt fears will reduce its share of the water and endanger its food security. The dispute has escalated into a diplomatic crisis, with both countries accusing each other of violating international law and threatening military action. The US has tried to mediate the conflict, but so far without success.
Why the Suez Canal matters
The Suez Canal is a man-made waterway that connects the Mediterranean Sea to the Red Sea. It was built by the French in the 19th century and nationalized by Egypt in 1956, sparking a war with Britain, France and Israel. The canal was closed twice in the 20th century, during the Suez Crisis of 1956 and the Six-Day War of 1967, disrupting global trade and triggering oil crises. The canal was reopened in 1975 and has since been expanded and modernized to accommodate larger ships and more traffic.
The Suez Canal is one of the most important chokepoints in the world, as it allows ships to avoid the long and costly detour around Africa. According to the Suez Canal Authority, about 50 ships pass through the canal every day, carrying about 12% of the world’s trade and 8% of the world’s oil. The canal is also a strategic asset for the US Navy, as it enables the rapid deployment of naval forces from the Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean and vice versa.
The Suez Canal, however, is not immune to accidents and disruptions. In March 2021, a giant container ship, the Ever Given, ran aground in the canal and blocked it for six days, causing a massive traffic jam and a global supply chain crisis. The incident highlighted the vulnerability of the canal to human error, technical failure and bad weather. It also raised questions about the adequacy of the canal’s infrastructure, management and security
Why America should care
The US has a vital interest in maintaining the security and stability of the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, as they are essential for the global economy, the energy market and the regional balance of power. The US also has a moral and legal obligation to protect its allies and partners in the region, such as Saudi Arabia, Israel and Egypt, from external and internal threats.
The US Navy, therefore, has a key role in safeguarding the freedom of navigation and the flow of commerce in these waterways. The Navy has deployed several ships and aircraft to the region, including the USS Carney, a guided-missile destroyer that has shot down several drones launched by the Houthis in the Red Sea.
In addition to the USS Carney, the US Navy has also announced a new international mission to counter the escalating Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea. The mission, dubbed Operation Sentinel, aims to enhance maritime security and deter aggression in the region. The US will work with its allies and partners, such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and the United Kingdom, to provide escort and surveillance services to commercial vessels and ensure the freedom of navigation in the vital waterway. The Navy has also offered to help the Egyptian authorities to clear the Suez Canal after the Ever Given incident.
However, the Navy also faces new and complex challenges in the region, such as the increasing sophistication and proliferation of the Houthi weapons, the rising tensions and potential conflicts between Egypt and Ethiopia, and the growing influence and presence of other actors, such as Russia, China and Iran. The Navy also has to balance its resources and priorities with other regions, such as the Indo-Pacific and Europe, where it faces similar or greater threats.
The US Navy, therefore, needs to adapt and innovate to cope with the changing dynamics and demands in the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. The Navy needs to enhance its intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities, to detect and deter any hostile or suspicious activities in the region. The Navy also needs to strengthen its cooperation and coordination with its allies and partners, to share information, resources and responsibilities. The Navy also needs to invest in its infrastructure, technology and personnel, to ensure its readiness and resilience.
The Red Sea and the Suez Canal are vital lifelines for the world and the US. The US Navy is the guardian of these lifelines, and it must be prepared and equipped to face any challenges and opportunities in the region.
This just in from Reuters:
U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced on Tuesday plans to set up a multinational coalition to safeguard Red Sea shipping called Operation Prosperity Guardian. During a trip to the Middle East, he said the operations would be joined by Britain, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain.
This has been the response according to Reuters
France France’s Defence Ministry said it supported efforts to secure freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and surrounding area and said it already operated in the region. But it said its ships would stay under French command and did not say if it would deploy more naval forces. Advertisement · Scroll to continue Report this ad France has a naval base in the United Arab Emirates and 1,500 troops in Djibouti. Its frigate Languedoc is now in the Red Sea.
Italy Italy’s Defence Ministry said it would send naval frigate Virginio Fasan to the Red Sea to protect its national interests in response to specific requests made by Italian shipowners. It said this was part of its existing operations and was not part of Operation Prosperity Guardian.
Spain
Spain’s Defence Ministry said it would only participate in NATO-led missions or EU-coordinated operations. “We will not participate unilaterally in the Red Sea operation,” it said.
Britain
Britain said destroyer HMS Diamond would join Operation Prosperity Guardian. Britain’s defence ministry said the coalition would operate as part of the U.S.-led CMF.
Others
The Netherlands said it would send two staff officers and Norway said it would send 10 naval officers to Bahrain, the headquarters of CMF.
KEY POINTS ACCORDING T0 CNBC
The U.S. launched Operation Prosperity Guardian, an expansion of its maritime defense force in the Red Sea amid mounting attacks from the Iran-backed Houthi rebel group. Several major companies like BP and Maersk have paused shipping in the Red Sea as danger from Houthi drone strikes escalates. An expanded military presence in the Red Sea comes as the U.S. eyes potential flare-ups of spreading regional conflict as the Israel-Hamas war continues.
Share this blog post with your friends, family, and network to spread the word about the US Navy and its challenges in the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. The more people know about the Navy and its role, the more they will appreciate and support it. You can share this blog post on social media, email, or any other platform you prefer. You will also help us to reach more potential supporters.
‘Charting the Course: Navigating the Future of American Naval Power‘
‘Welcome to Charting the Course: Navigating the Future of American Naval Power’ a podcast series that dives into the past, present, and future of the U.S. Navy and its impact on the world. This is the inaugural discussion of our series where we will introduce the main themes, topics and the speakers that we will explore in the coming episodes.
Before we dive into our inaugural discussion, we want to remind you that this series is not just a one-time event, but a continuous conversation that we started in our pre event blog post. In that post, we introduced the main themes, topics, and speakers that we will explore in this series, as well as the historical context and relevance of the U.S. Navy’s role and contribution in the global maritime commons, we also invited you to join us in this journey of learning and discovery, and to share your thoughts and questions with us and our guests.
I’m Bill Cullifer, the founder of the Americans for a Stronger Navy, a non-profit organization that advocates for a robust and resilient naval force. In this series, ‘Charting the Course: Navigating the Future of American Naval Power’ is an essential series that addresses the pressing challenges the U.S. Navy confronts in an era of evolving global threats.
As the United States navigates shifting geopolitical dynamics and grapples with a rising Chinese military threat, the challenges faced by the Navy have never been more critical to our national security.
Together, we’ll explore how the Navy has shaped and been shaped by the history, culture, and politics of the United States and its allies and adversaries. We’ll also discuss the current and emerging challenges and opportunities that the Navy faces in a complex and dynamic global environment, and how it can chart a course for success and security in the 21st century and beyond.
Joining me today is Dale A. Jenkins, the author of “Diplomats and Admirals” and a senior advisor at the Americans for a Stronger Navy. We have invited leaders and experts in naval and national defense to make podcasts with us that will be posted on our website on a weekly schedule. This is a transcript of the inaugural discussion.
Speakersand Sessions
Episode 1: Dr. Steven Wills, Navalist for the Center for Maritime Strategy at the Navy League of the United States. – The Anatomy of Naval Strate – December 28, 2023
Dive deep into the world of naval strategy with Dr Steven Wills, who brings a keen eye to the intricacies of strategy development, its challenges, and the integration of diverse naval capabilities. This session promises a thorough exploration of what constitutes U.S. Navy strategy, its objectives, and how it shapes the nation’s maritime future.
Episode 2:Dr. Bruce Jones, Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for East Asia Policy Studies, Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology, Brookings Institution. – Maritime Power Through History and Future – January 4, 2024
Join Dr. Bruce Jones for a historical and global perspective on maritime power. This session connects past and present maritime dynamics, exploring the influence of trade, climate change, and geopolitical shifts. Gain insights into how historical narratives of maritime prowess inform the current dynamics of power and influence in the global maritime domain.
Episode 3: Dr. Sam Tangredi, Leidos Chair of Future Warfare Studies and professor of national, naval, and maritime strategy at the U.S. Naval War College.January 11, 2024.
Embark on a technological journey with Dr. Sam Tangredi, an authority on the integration of AI in naval warfare. This session addresses how AI, big data, and human-machine interfaces are revolutionizing naval operations. Learn about the ethical, legal, and strategic dimensions of AI in the Navy and its profound impact on future naval force structure and capabilities.
Episode 4: Dr. Scott Savitz, Senior Engineer at the RAND Corporation – Innovation at Sea: Non-Lethal Weapons and Uncrewed Platforms – .January 18, 2024.
Explore the cutting-edge of naval innovation with Dr. Scott Savitz, focusing on non-lethal weapons and uncrewed platforms. Understand how these technologies are reshaping naval strategy and operations, their potential risks, and their role in maintaining strategic advantage over global rivals. This session promises insights into the future of naval warfare and national security.
Episode 5: Bryan Clark, senior fellow and director of the Center for Defense Concepts and Technology at Hudson Institute – The Technological Horizon of Naval Warfare – February 1st, 2024.
Delve into the future with as we examine the broad implications of emerging technologies like AI, big data, machine learning, and more in naval warfare. This session covers the integration challenges these technologies pose, their strategic impact, and their role in enhancing interoperability and effectiveness with global allies.⁰
Episode 6: Seth Cropsey, President Yorktown Institute. – Navigating Today’s Naval Challenges – February 8, 2024.
Join us as we explore the complexities of modern naval power with Seth Cropsey, a seasoned expert with extensive experience in the U.S. Naval and Department of Defense realms. This session offers an in-depth look at the current challenges and opportunities facing the Navy, particularly in the context of global rivalries. Discover the strategic insights that set the stage for a comprehensive understanding of contemporary naval dynamics.
Episode 7: Jon Rennie, co-founder, president, and CEO of Peak Demand Inc., – Leadership and Culture in Modern Naval Power –February 15th, 2024.
Conclude our series with Jon Rennie, focusing on the crucial elements of leadership, culture, and the balance between tradition and modernization within the Navy. This session highlights the importance of leadership in navigating the multifaceted challenges and opportunities in naval power, offering a holistic view of the organizational dynamics at play.
Hello and welcome to ‘Charting the Course: Navigating the Future of American Naval Power’, a podcast series brought to you by Americans for a Stronger Navy, a non-profit group that advocates for:
A robust and modern naval force that can deter and defeat threats.
Protection and promotion of trade.
Support of allies and partners around the globe.
I’m Bill Cullifer, founder of Americans for a Stronger Navy and your podcast host.
As a former Us Navy Destroyer Sailor, technology sector community leader, and organizer, I hope to bring a wealth of experience to the conversation and our mission for a stronger Navy.
Alongside me is Dale A. Jenkins, a noted Naval historian and the author of “Diplomats and Admirals”, a comprehensive and investigative research project into WW2 Naval history at Midway.
Dale serves on:
The Samuel Eliot Morison Committee of the Naval Order of the United States in New York.
And is also a Regional Director of the Naval War College Foundation.
Dale also serves as Senior Advisor to the Americans for a Stronger Navy.
Bill: Hello Dale and welcome to the podcast series.
Dale: Thanks Bill. happy to be here.
Bill: Thanks Dale.
The purpose and goal of this series is to:
provide a comprehensive overview of the challenges, and opportunities of the U.S. Navy
and its role in advancing the nation’s interests and values in the world.
This is an essential series that addresses:
The pressing challenges the U.S. Navy confronts in an era of evolving global threats.
As the United States navigates shifting geopolitical dynamics and grapples with:
A rising Chinese military threat in the Taiwan Strait,
Iranian proxies in the Mediterranean Sea, the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf,
Other adversaries in our own hemisphere, the Navy’s role has never been more critical to our national security.
In this 8 – episode series, we will go beyond mere reporting, diving deep into the heart of these challenges to shed light on their implications and the decisions that will shape the future of American naval power.
We will not only report the facts, but also analyze the implications. We will not only describe the challenges, but also explore the opportunities. We will not only look at the past, but also envision the future.
We believe that:
Understanding these challenges is paramount, as the U.S. Navy is not only a symbol of our nation’s strength but also a key instrument in maintaining global stability.
We hope you will join us for this exciting and informative journey, as we chart the course for the future of American naval power.
Bill: Dale, over to you for additional detail about the sessions.
Dale: Thanks Bill
We have invited leaders and experts in naval and national defense to make podcasts with us that will be posted on our website on a weekly schedule. These weekly podcasts include, Bryan Clark: Senior Fellow and Director of the Center for Defense Concepts and Technology at the Hudson Institute, Seth Cropsey: President of the Yorktown Institute, Dr. Bruce Jones: Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, Jon S. Rennie: US Navy Veteran, Business Leader, Author, and Speaker, Dr. Scott Savitz: Senior Engineer at the RAND Corporation, Dr. Sam Tangredi: Leidos Chair of Future Warfare Studies at the U.S. Naval War College. Dr. Steven Wills: Navalist for the Center for Maritime Strategy at the Navy League of the United States.
These podcasts provide in-depth analyses on the latest weapons systems, artificial intelligence (AI), current worldwide national security strategy, force structure and adequacy of naval forces, innovation of new weapon systems and the leadership qualities needed to achieve our naval and national security goals. Vast majority of participants are former Naval officers who have taken their experience in the Navy to new endeavors.
Our podcasts will be one-hour zoom sessions, with a post-show summary with Bill and myself.
Future podcasts will continue to 8 and analyze current and future threats and challenges from China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. We will be alert for other potential threats. Defense spending and budget, weapon systems, alliances and partnerships, trade and economic policies, human rights and democracy promotion will also be explored.
We are aware of the evolution of the U.S. Navy, not only as a tradition but as a means of drawing on historical events and precedents as they may illuminate current circumstances.
Dale: Bill back to you to explain Why This Matters
Bill: Thanks Dale
In this section, we will explain why this podcast series matters and what we hope to accomplish with it.
Why does this matter?
Because the U.S. Navy is vital for the national security and foreign policy of the United States.
Naval forces cannot be strengthened overrnight, or even in several years.
The Navy must be prepared in advance and have considered strategies to deal with unexpected crises. Crises cannot simply be dealt with by hasty mobilizations or extended deployments, and then written off as cost-free.
Such actions take a toll in maintenance, readiness, and, perhaps most important,
the commitment of officers and sailors to a career that makes strenuous demands on normal human life patterns during periods usually described as peacetime.
The decisions and actions that are taken or not taken on these issues have profound implications and consequences for the future of our nation and the world.values in the global commons, such as the oceans, the air, the space, and the cyberspace, where no one country has sovereignty but everyone has a stake.
The U.S. Navy ensures the freedom
According to a recent survey by the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute, 83% of Americans agree that a strong U.S. Navy is critical to protecting our country and our allies, and 79% agree that a strong U.S. Navy is critical to ensuring free trade around the world.
We created this series because we believe that there is a need and demand for a comprehensive and timely assessment of the U.S. military strength and security, especially in the maritime domain.
We also believe that there is a lack and a gap of public awareness and education on these issues,
and that they are relevant and urgent for the security and prosperity of the United States and its allies.
We hope that this series will inform and educate you about the critical issues that affect the U.S. Navy and its role in the world, and inspire and engage you to take action and make a difference.
We also aim to:
Provide factual and balanced information and analysis on the current state and future direction of the U.S. Navy, and the opportunities and challenges that it faces in the 21st century.
• To present diverse and credible perspectives and opinions from experts and stakeholders on the issues and topics that affect the U.S. Navy and its role in the world, and to foster a constructive and respectful dialogue and debate among them.
• To offer practical and actionable suggestions and recommendations on how the U.S. Navy can improve its performance and effectiveness, and how the government and the public can support and sustain the U.S. Navy and its mission.
Bill: Dale, over to you.
Learning Objectives and What We Want Our Audience to Know
• The U.S. Navy is a vital instrument of national security and foreign policy, and it faces many challenges and opportunities in the 21st century.
• The U.S. Navy needs a larger and more capable fleet, which can deter and defeat potential adversaries, protect and promote trade and commerce, and support and strengthen allies and partners, especially in the Indo-Pacific region.
• The U.S. Navy requires more investment and support from the government and the public, to ensure that it maintains its military edge and deterrence capability, and to address the gaps and risks that it faces in terms of capacity, capability, readiness, and modernization.
• The U.S. Navy is a force for good in the world, and it upholds and advances the values and interests of the United States and its allies, such as freedom, democracy, human rights, and peace.
What’s Next – Current status
• In the next episode, we will dive into the topic of the U.S. Navy’s fleet size and composition, and why it matters for the national security and foreign policy of the United States. We will examine the current and projected state of the U.S. Navy’s fleet, the challenges and opportunities that it faces in meeting the 355-ship goal set by Congress, and the trade-offs and choices that are involved in building and maintaining a larger and more capable fleet.
Dale: Over to you Bill
BIll:
Thank you Dale and thank you for listening to this introduction episode of Charting the Course: Navigating the Future of American Naval Power. We hope you enjoyed it and learned something new. Please follow our podcast on your favorite platform, and share it with your friends and family. We would love to hear from you, so please send us your comments and questions to our email address or leave us a voice message on our website. We look forward to hearing from you and engaging with you in this important conversation.
