Tag: International Law

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Scarborough Shoal: Tiny Reef, Global Stakes

A Comprehensive Series by Americans for a Stronger Navy

By Bill Cullifer, Founder – Americans for a Stronger Navy

Introduction: Why We’re Launching This Series on Scarborough Shoal

What is Scarborough Shoal?

At first glance, it’s just a triangle-shaped reef in the South China Sea, roughly 120 nautical miles west of Luzon, Philippines. No buildings. No runway. No flag.

Scarborough Shoal, courtesy of the U.S. Navy.

But don’t let its humble appearance fool you.

Scarborough Shoal is one of the most contested flashpoints in the Indo-Pacific. This seemingly minor cluster of rocks and reefs sits at the heart of one of the world’s most vital sea lanes — and could very well be the next spark in a global conflict.

What Prompted This Series

We didn’t choose Scarborough Shoal at random. This series was prompted by a disturbing escalation in Chinese maritime aggression in the South China Sea — specifically at Scarborough Shoal, a small reef with outsized strategic consequences.

Recent satellite photo of Scarborough Shoal showing Chinese vessels surrounding the reef, with overlay graphics indicating vessel positions and types

Recent events that brought this to a head include:

  • A Chinese cutter and guided-missile destroyer collided during a botched blockade attempt of Philippine Coast Guard vessels ten nautical miles off Scarborough Shoal in August 2025.
  • USS Higgins (DDG-76) sailed within 12 nautical miles of Scarborough Shoal conducting a Freedom of Navigation Operation (FONOP) — the first known U.S. military operation in at least six years in these specific waters.
  • Chinese Coast Guard harassment of Philippine resupply missions.
  • Dumping of concrete blocks — a likely signal of future construction.
  • Swarming of the area by Chinese maritime militia vessels.

The Scarborough Shoal is quickly becoming a litmus test for Chinese expansionism and U.S. resolve.

Why Now: The Wake-Up Call

Scarborough Shoal lies just 120 nautical miles off the Philippine coast — well within their Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) — and even closer to America’s red lines. When China seized de facto control of the shoal in 2012, the U.S. stood back. Many viewed this as a strategic failure of deterrence.

Now, the world is witnessing the possibility of militarization of the reef — and direct confrontation with a U.S. ally. That makes this more than a regional issue. It’s a crisis in the making.

The 2012 Standoff: A Turning Point

In April 2012, Philippine authorities attempted to arrest Chinese fishermen operating illegally in the shoal. Chinese maritime surveillance ships intervened. A tense standoff ensued, lasting weeks. The U.S. brokered a deal: both sides would withdraw.

The Philippines kept its word. China didn’t.

Instead, China took control of Scarborough Shoal, effectively barring Filipino access ever since. They now patrol it with coast guard cutters, militia fishing boats, and surveillance drones — sometimes even water cannons. Construction may follow.

A Geopolitical Tinderbox in the Sea

The South China Sea is home to trillions of dollars in annual global trade. It’s also flush with resources: fish, gas, oil, and geostrategic leverage. China claims nearly all of it under its so-called “Nine-Dash Line” — a sweeping assertion that ignores international law and overrides the rights of Southeast Asian nations like the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia.

Scarborough Shoal, or Bajo de Masinloc as the Filipinos call it, lies within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ), as defined under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration definitively ruled that China’s sweeping claims in the South China Sea had no legal basis under international law.

China’s response? They ignored the ruling entirely and doubled down on their aggression.

My Perspective: This Isn’t Just a Reef

As a former Navy destroyer sailor from the 1970s, I understand how seemingly minor naval flashpoints can quickly spiral. I launched Americans for a Stronger Navy to bridge the gap between what’s happening on the water and what the American public knows.

When I began Americans for a Stronger Navy, I did so because I believed — and still believe — that Americans are not being told the full story.

Scarborough Shoal isn’t on the nightly news — but it should be.

This reef is about more than rocks and water. It’s about:

  • Sovereignty
  • International law
  • Access to critical trade routes
  • Maintaining a rules-based order
  • The failure of deterrence
  • The rise of maritime bullying
  • The fragility of global trade

And the uncomfortable question: Will America act, or will we retreat?

Why Americans Must Pay Attention

Most Americans have never heard of Scarborough Shoal, but they should. Here’s why it matters to you:

  • Over $3 trillion in trade passes through the South China Sea annually.
  • China is testing the boundaries of international law and Western will.
  • Scarborough is a potential trigger point for a wider conflict — even WWIII.
  • The U.S. Navy may be forced to act, and our sailors are on the front line.
  • Success here emboldens China’s tactics elsewhere — Taiwan Strait, East China Sea.
  • Control of Scarborough supports China’s broader Belt and Road Initiative and maritime silk road ambitions.

If you think a shoal doesn’t matter, consider this: $3.4 trillion in global trade flows through the South China Sea every year. China is attempting to rewrite the rules of international waters. And the U.S. Navy — your Navy — is the thin blue line standing in the way.

Coming Up in This Series

  • The history of Scarborough Shoal and how we got here
  • The 2012 U.S.-brokered standoff and its long-term impact
  • The 2016 international arbitration ruling and China’s defiance
  • China’s maritime militia and “gray zone” tactics
  • The importance of fishing rights, seabed minerals, and cable networks
  • Allied response frameworks: QUAD, AUKUS, and Philippines mutual defense commitments
  • The implications for the U.S., our allies, and our Navy
  • Economic warfare potential and leverage tactics
  • Technology, surveillance, and intelligence dimensions
  • WWIII scenarios — and what they could look like
  • Congressional and policy tools available (or missing)
  • What Americans know (or don’t) about this growing threat

Each post will build context and momentum — helping readers understand why this small reef could shape the future of American security strategy in Asia and beyond.

Join the Mission

Understanding Scarborough Shoal is understanding a fault line in today’s global order. This series isn’t just about sounding the alarm — it’s about equipping Americans with insight, history, and facts so we can rally support, demand accountability, and avoid miscalculation.

If we don’t understand where the storm is brewing, we won’t know when to take shelter — or when to stand our ground.

Scarborough Shoal may seem far away. But the values at stake — sovereignty, freedom of navigation, and deterrence — are right at our doorstep.

Not to inflame. Not to fearmonger. But to educate, illuminate, and inspire action.

Please follow along, share with others, and help us shine a spotlight on one of the most important — and most underreported — strategic flashpoints of our time.

Stay with us. Read. Share. Talk about it.

Because understanding this reef might just help us prevent the next war.

A Final Thought

If a reef you’ve never heard of could spark the next major war — dragging America and its sailors into the fight — doesn’t that make it worth understanding?

Let’s chart the course together.

That’s why we launched Charting the Course: Voices That Matter—a 24-part educational series breaking down how we got here, what went wrong, and what must happen next. Our goal is simple: educate the public, connect the dots, and build the support needed to close the readiness gap before it’s too late.

Let’s roll.

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China’s Military Expansion in the South China Sea: A Growing Strategic Challenge: Mischief Reef

Introduction

The South China Sea, one of the world’s most strategically important waterways, has become the epicenter of a remarkable military transformation. Recent satellite imagery reveals the stunning scale of China’s military build-up across disputed islands and reefs, fundamentally altering the regional balance of power in ways that would have been unimaginable just two decades ago.

The Scale of Transformation

New satellite images from the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) paint a picture of unprecedented military expansion. China now operates a sprawling 3,200-hectare network of military bases across the South China Sea, transforming once-submerged reefs into fortress-like installations capable of hosting advanced military aircraft, including nuclear-capable bombers.

The transformation of Mischief Reef exemplifies this dramatic change. Satellite comparisons show that what was merely underwater reef in 2004 has become a massive military complex featuring:

  • Sprawling runways capable of handling large military aircraft
  • More than 72 fighter jet hangars across major island bases
  • Surface-to-air missile installations
  • Anti-ship cruise missile emplacements
  • Extensive radar and communications infrastructure
  • Large harbors for naval vessels

As Gregory Poling, director of AMTI, describes it, these bases represent “the result of the quickest example of mass dredging and landfill in human history.”

Strategic Military Assets

China’s military presence in the region has grown to encompass 27 outposts total: 20 in the Paracel Islands and 7 in the Spratly Islands. Of these, four have been transformed into fully operational naval and air bases. The sophistication of these installations became particularly evident in May 2025, when satellite imagery captured two Chinese H-6K bombers—aircraft capable of carrying nuclear weapons—stationed on Woody Island in the Paracels.

This deployment marked the first confirmed presence of China’s most advanced bombers in the region since 2020, signaling Beijing’s growing confidence in projecting power far from its mainland bases. The H-6 bombers represent a significant strategic capability, with the range to threaten U.S. military installations throughout the region and the versatility to support various military scenarios.

Regional Tensions and International Law

China’s expansion occurs against a backdrop of competing territorial claims. Beijing asserts sovereignty over nearly the entire South China Sea through its “nine-dash line” claim, which overlaps with territories claimed by Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam. Crucially, a 2016 international arbitral tribunal ruled that China’s sweeping claims have no basis under international law—a decision Beijing categorically rejected.

The militarization of these features directly contradicts China’s earlier assurances. Chinese officials had previously promised that the island-building activities would not result in militarization, making the current reality particularly concerning for regional stability.

Broader Strategic Implications

These developments represent more than territorial disputes—they signal a fundamental shift in regional power dynamics. The South China Sea carries approximately one-third of global maritime trade, making control over these waters economically as well as strategically significant. China’s ability to project military power throughout the region from these fortified positions gives Beijing substantial leverage in any future crisis or negotiation.

The speed and scale of this transformation have caught many observers off guard. What began as seemingly modest construction projects has evolved into a comprehensive military network that extends China’s defensive perimeter hundreds of miles from its mainland coast. This “fait accompli” strategy has proven remarkably effective, creating new realities on the ground—or rather, on the water—that are difficult for other nations to reverse without risking major conflict.

The Challenge Ahead

For the United States and its regional allies, China’s South China Sea expansion presents a complex strategic challenge. The installations are now permanent features of the maritime landscape, defended by increasingly sophisticated military capabilities. Any attempt to challenge China’s presence directly would likely trigger a major regional crisis.

Instead, the focus has shifted to maintaining freedom of navigation, supporting allied nations’ territorial claims through diplomatic means, and developing military capabilities that can operate effectively in this new environment. The recent deployment of advanced bombers to these bases suggests that China views its South China Sea positions not as defensive installations, but as platforms for power projection throughout the broader Indo-Pacific region.

Looking Forward

The militarization of the South China Sea represents one of the most significant geopolitical developments of the 21st century. In less than two decades, China has fundamentally altered the strategic map of one of the world’s most important waterways. The satellite images that document this transformation tell a story not just of engineering prowess, but of strategic ambition that will shape regional dynamics for generations to come.

As tensions continue to simmer and new military capabilities are deployed, the South China Sea remains a critical barometer of great power competition in the Indo-Pacific. The question is no longer whether China can build and maintain these installations, but how the international community will adapt to this new strategic reality.

The implications extend far beyond the immediate region, serving as a case study in how technological capability, strategic patience, and determined action can reshape international boundaries and power balances in the modern era. For observers of international relations, the South China Sea serves as a real-time laboratory for understanding how the global order is being challenged and potentially transformed in the 21st century.

Sources: Analysis based on satellite imagery from Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI), reports from The Independent, Defense Mirror, and other verified news sources.

That’s why we launched Charting the Course: Voices That Matter—a 24-part educational series breaking down how we got here, what went wrong, and what must happen next. Our goal is simple: educate the public, connect the dots, and build the support needed to close the readiness gap before it’s too late.

Let’s move beyond slogans. Let’s build understanding, accountability, and strength—before the next crisis comes knocking.