The Autonomous Revolution: Naval Warfare’s Exponential Leap

Introduction

The future isn’t coming—it’s already here, patrolling our oceans with no human hands on the wheel.

Personal Reflection

Bill Cullifer, Founder
Bill Cullifer, Founder

As someone who stood watch on a destroyer’s deck for years, I’d love nothing more than for every young American to feel the salt air, a wooden helm at their fingertips, the roll of the ship beneath their feet and the breathtaking vastness of the sea. That experience shaped my life and the life of many others that I respect and admire.

But sentiment won’t secure the future. The world has changed—and it’s time we face some hard facts.

We’re now witnessing the dawn of a radically new era in warfare. One that demands we embrace and invest in the technologies that will define the next generation of naval power.

From Science Fiction to Sea Trials

Less than a decade ago, the idea of fully autonomous warships seemed like the stuff of sci-fi. Today, the U.S. Navy’s USX-1 Defiant—a 180-foot, 240-ton vessel designed without a single human accommodation—is conducting sea trials off Washington state.

No bunks. No heads. No mess halls. Just a steel-clad, AI-powered war machine optimized purely for mission.

This isn’t incremental change. It’s an exponential leap.

The Compound Effect of Convergent Technologies

What’s driving this revolution isn’t just a single breakthrough. It’s convergence.

AI Decision-Making at Machine Speed

Ships like USS Ranger and Mariner aren’t just autonomous—they’re operational. They’ve logged thousands of miles, fired missiles, and executed missions without direct human control. Real-time, tactical adaptation is already replacing human-triggered decision trees.

Swarm Coordination Beyond Human Capability

With programs like Ghost Fleet Overlord, we’re moving toward fully integrated autonomous networks—surface, subsurface, aerial. Swarms of unmanned systems coordinating at machine speed, executing joint missions across domains.

New Physical Designs, New Possibilities

When you remove the human factor, new design freedom emerges. The NOMARS program optimizes for function over form—rapid payload reconfiguration, longer endurance, fewer constraints. Defiant doesn’t compromise. It adapts.

The Multiplication Factor

Each of these capabilities amplifies the others:

  • AI enables swarm tactics
  • Swarms generate operational data
  • That data trains the next-gen AI
  • Which enables even more sophisticated missions

The cycle is accelerating. Consider DARPA’s Manta Ray, an autonomous glider designed to “hibernate” on the seabed for months. Now picture that working in tandem with unmanned surface vessels like Defiant, and traditional submarines—all coordinating without a single sailor onboard.

The MASC Paradigm: Speed Over Paperwork

The Navy’s new Modular Attack Surface Craft (MASC) program exemplifies this exponential thinking. Instead of designing ships around specific missions, MASC creates standardized platforms that gain capabilities through containerized payloads—like naval smartphones that become powerful through modular “apps.”

With an aggressive 18-month delivery timeline and emphasis on commercial standards over “exquisite” platforms, MASC represents a fundamental shift in how the Navy acquires capability. As Austin Gray, Navy Reserve Intelligence Officer & Co-founder/CSO, Blue Water Autonomy observed: “The way Navy is approaching MASC—procuring fast, iteratively, and with focus on speed over paperwork—should offer us hope that the future of U.S. seapower is not so dim.”

This isn’t just about new ships—it’s about new thinking. MASC vessels can be missile shooters one day, submarine hunters the next, simply by swapping standardized containers. The high-capacity variant could carry 64 missiles—more firepower than many destroyers, at a fraction of the cost.

Beyond the Horizon

In 2016, Sea Hunter launched with basic navigation. By 2021, converted vessels were firing missiles. In 2025, purpose-built unmanned warships are conducting sea trials. By 2026, MASC prototypes will be delivered for fleet operations.

What’s next?

The Pentagon is backing this future with a $179 billion R&D investment focused on AI, drone swarms, and autonomous systems. The revolution isn’t limited to ships—it extends to autonomous aircraft, land vehicles, and space-based platforms.

The Inflection Point

This may be the most transformative shift in warfare since the atomic age.

But unlike nuclear weapons, which stagnated under treaties and deterrence doctrines, autonomous systems evolve constantly—learning, adapting, improving. The next five years will likely deliver breakthroughs we can’t yet fully comprehend.

We’re not just upgrading platforms. We’re creating entire ecosystems of autonomous coordination that outpace human decision-making and redefine how wars are fought—and deterred.

Welcome to U.S. Navy 3.0—a new era defined not by bigger ships, but by smarter ones.

We’ve discussed this evolution before: Navy 1.0 was sail and steel; Navy 2.0 brought nuclear power and carrier dominance. Navy 3.0 marks a transformational leap driven by artificial intelligence, autonomy, and multi-domain integration. It’s not just about replacing crewed vessels with unmanned ones—it’s about rethinking naval power from the keel up. From swarming tactics to predictive logistics and machine-speed decision-making, Navy 3.0 is our opportunity to regain the edge in a world where adversaries are building faster, cheaper, and without rules.

The Legacy Challenge

This transformation faces significant resistance. Naval culture, built around centuries of seamanship and command tradition, doesn’t easily embrace unmanned systems. The defense industrial base, optimized for billion-dollar platforms with decades-long production cycles, struggles with MASC’s 18-month timelines and commercial standards.

But operational necessity is forcing evolution. When China builds ships faster than we can afford traditional platforms, alternatives become imperatives. The question isn’t whether to change—it’s whether we can change fast enough.

The Future Is Now

This isn’t a concept. It’s not theory. It’s happening:

  • Autonomous vessels are already patrolling the Pacific
  • Underwater gliders are proving months-long endurance
  • Unmanned surface warships are rewriting the rules of naval architecture
  • Containerized missile systems are operational
  • MASC solicitations are active with near-term delivery requirements

The revolution is not ahead of us. It’s around us.

And we’ve only just left the pier.

Why Americans Should Care

Autonomous warfare isn’t just a military story—it’s a national security imperative. Adversaries like China are racing to seize the advantage in unmanned systems. Falling behind means more than losing battles—it risks losing deterrence, freedom of navigation, and geopolitical influence.

The economic implications are equally significant. Navy 3.0’s emphasis on commercial standards and distributed production could revitalize American shipbuilding, creating jobs while strengthening national security.

Implications for the Navy

To remain dominant, the U.S. Navy must rethink everything: shipbuilding timelines, training paradigms, procurement processes, and alliances. Naval power in this new era will favor speed, adaptability, and distributed lethality.

Officer career paths built around commanding ships must evolve to managing autonomous swarms. Training programs must balance traditional seamanship with algorithmic warfare. Most critically, the Navy must maintain its warrior ethos while embracing radical technological change.

A Final Word

Let’s not confuse nostalgia with readiness. The romance of the sea will always have a place in our hearts—but it won’t protect our shores.

The wooden helm and salt air that shaped naval officers for generations remain valuable experiences. But future naval leaders will find meaning in different challenges: commanding autonomous fleets, coordinating multi-domain operations, and outthinking adversaries at machine speed.

If we want peace, we must master this new domain.

It’s time to embrace it. It’s time to invest. It’s time to lead.

That’s why we launched Charting the Course: Voices That Matter—a 24-part educational series breaking down how we got here, what went wrong, and what must happen next. Our goal is simple: educate the public, connect the dots, and build the support needed to close the readiness gap before it’s too late.

Let’s roll.

When America Ships, America Wins

Wake up, America—our destiny depends on it.

Bill Cullifer, Founder
Bill Cullifer, Founder

Introduction

In our ongoing pursuit to strengthen America’s sea power, we must confront the challenges facing both our Navy and the broader maritime domain. Over the weekend, I immersed myself in key publications—from Captain Brent D. Sadler’s impassioned article, The Nation Needs a Shipbuilding Revolution (February 2025 Proceedings), to insightful analyses on platforms like War on the Rocks and legislative presentations regarding the SHIPS for America Act. In addition, I revisited the history and nuance of Naval versus Maritime Statecraft.

The conclusion is clear: our nation’s strength at sea relies on a transformative, integrated approach. In short, When America Ships, America Wins.

Why This Matters

For too long, the U.S. Navy has operated under a narrow warfighting mandate—a legacy of policies from the 1950s that prioritized combat readiness above all else. Yet history teaches us that true American sea power has always depended on two interlinked capabilities: a modern, formidable fleet and an engaged maritime domain that underpins commerce, diplomacy, and humanitarian efforts.

As Rep. Garamendi recently stated,
“Today, less than 200 oceangoing ships fly the American flag; the SHIPS for America Act will empower our shipyards and marine merchants to uphold our country’s status as a leader in the maritime industry.”

Meanwhile, Senator Mark Kelly emphasized,
“Strengthening America’s shipbuilding capacity and revitalizing our commercial maritime industry is critical to both our national security and economic resilience.”

These words capture the urgent need to reinvest in our naval statecraft while simultaneously enhancing our broader maritime strength.

Our Journey to Clarity
Throughout my review, several key insights emerged:

Dissecting the Sources: Captain Sadler’s article calls for a revolution in U.S. naval shipbuilding. He writes, “For too long, needed investment in and action to bolster our nation’s maritime industrial base have been elusive. That luxury is no longer feasible given the threat from a revanchist and massively invested Chinese military.” His words, combined with insights from War on the Rocks and historical reflections, remind us that our Navy must once again balance combat readiness with essential peacetime missions.

Clarifying Terminology: We now clearly distinguish between “naval statecraft”—focused on rebuilding our fleet and shipbuilding capacity—and “maritime statecraft,” which encompasses the broader economic, diplomatic, and logistical roles at sea. Recognizing that these two concepts are mutually reinforcing helps create a coherent strategic message.

Refining Our Message: After extensive review and discussion, our distilled, bold message is: When America Ships, America Wins. Coupled with the rallying cry, Wake up, America—our destiny depends on it, this encapsulates the urgent need to invest in our naval statecraft to secure our maritime future.

Key Takeaways and Implications

Integrated Mission for a Modern Era: A strong Navy is not just about preparing for war—it is the foundation of national security, economic prosperity, and global maritime influence. When America builds its ships, it reinforces its entire maritime domain.

Economic and Security Benefits: Investment in our shipbuilding industry creates high-quality jobs, revitalizes our manufacturing base, and ensures our fleet is capable of sustaining military operations and global trade. Without sufficient modern vessels, our ability to maintain critical supply chains is at risk.

Historical Lessons for Today: The interwar period showed that the U.S. Navy once balanced readiness for war with vital peacetime missions like humanitarian aid and diplomatic engagement. Recalling these lessons provides a blueprint for integrating naval and maritime statecraft in today’s complex environment.

In my efforts to understand the challenges facing the U.S. Navy and our maritime infrastructure, I have spent a fair amount of time reviewing the Jones Act and the range of views surrounding it. While there are differing opinions on how best to strengthen our domestic shipping industry, one thing is clear—America needs more ships, a stronger supporting infrastructure, and a Navy that is fully equipped to protect our national security. Regardless of where one stands on the specifics of maritime policy, we can all agree that a Stronger Navy is critical to American security and economic resilience. My focus remains on ensuring that we have the industrial capacity, shipbuilding capabilities, and logistics networks necessary to maintain U.S. maritime strength in an increasingly contested world.

Why Americans Should Care

For over two centuries, American maritime strength has been a cornerstone of our global leadership. Yet today, our domestic shipbuilding industry has shrunk from over 300 shipyards in the 1980s to just 20, and our U.S.-flagged commercial fleet has dwindled to fewer than 80 vessels. With China dominating global shipbuilding and maritime trade, the equation is simple: When America Ships, America Wins. Our shipyards are the engines powering our Navy, safeguarding our commerce, and securing our freedom.

Implications for the Navy and the Maritime Domain

For the Navy: Modernizing our fleet enhances operational readiness, supports a skilled and sustainable workforce, and allows the Navy to execute both war and peacetime missions. A modernized Navy is essential to deter adversaries and defend our national interests.

For the Maritime Domain: A thriving shipbuilding industry is vital for protecting American commerce, ensuring free navigation, and fostering economic resilience. Strengthening our maritime statecraft reinforces strategic partnerships and maintains our global influence.

The Legislative Response: SHIPS for America Act

Bipartisan efforts led by figures such as Senator Mark Kelly, Congressman Mike Waltz, Rep. Trent Kelly, and Rep. John Garamendi have culminated in the introduction of the Shipbuilding and Harbor Infrastructure for Prosperity and Security (SHIPS) for America Act. This comprehensive legislation proposes to:

  • Revive U.S. Shipbuilding: Offer tax incentives and targeted investments to rebuild our shipyards and attract private-sector growth.
  • Expand the U.S.-Flagged Merchant Fleet: Implement cargo preference laws to ensure more goods travel on American ships.
  • Strengthen National Security: Increase the supply of ships available for military logistics and rapid response.
  • Develop a New Maritime Workforce: Establish apprenticeships, trade school incentives, and recruiting programs to restore critical skills in ship maintenance and marine operations.
  • Forge Strategic Partnerships with Allies: Collaborate with trusted nations like Japan, South Korea, Finland, and Canada to enhance our shipbuilding capacity while ensuring American oversight.

This legislation is not about partisan politics—it’s about survival. With global supply chains vulnerable to disruption, the urgency to rebuild our maritime strength has never been greater.

Conclusion & Call to Action

History teaches us that nations fall when they lose control of the seas. Today, as our adversaries grow stronger and our industrial base shrinks, we cannot afford to dawdle. It’s not war we desire, but peace achieved through strength—and our enemies must know that America will not stand idly by.

Join us in this crucial mission. We call on policymakers, industry leaders, and every American who values freedom and prosperity to support transformative initiatives that invest in our naval statecraft. By strengthening our shipbuilding industry and modernizing our Navy, we secure a robust maritime future that benefits us all.

When American Ships, America Wins.
Wake up, America—our destiny depends on it.

Visit StrongerNavy.org to learn more, get involved, and help ensure that our nation’s shipbuilding efforts pave the way for a secure and prosperous future.

In service to a stronger America,
Bill