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Category: Charting the Course
Charting the Course: Navigating the Future of American Naval Power’ a podcast series that dives into the past, present, and future of the U.S. Navy and its impact on the world.
We’ve laid the groundwork, discussing the vital role and impact of the U.S. Navy in a global context. Now, we’re excited to dive deeper into specific topics that define the future of American naval power.
We are honored to present Dr. Steven Wills, a distinguished navalist, historian, and former U.S. Naval officer, in our first in-depth episode titled ‘Developing and Implementing Effective U.S. Navy Strategies.‘
With over 30 years of experience in surface warfare, naval strategy, and national security, Dr. Wills brings unparalleled insights into the complexities and necessities of a forward-thinking Naval strategy.
Dr. Wills, an esteemed author of significant works like ‘Strategy Shelved’ and ‘Where are the Carriers?’, co-authored with former Navy Secretary John Lehman, enriches our discussion with his perspectives, shaped by his contributions to notable publications like the U.S. Naval War College Review and U.S. Naval Institute News.
Join us as we build on our past discussions, charting the evolving course of American naval power, and delve into its indispensable role in the ever-changing tapestry of global security.
Speakersand Sessions
Episode 1: Dr. Steven Wills, Navalist for the Center for Maritime Strategy at the Navy League of the United States. – The Anatomy of Naval Strate – December 28, 2023
Dive deep into the world of naval strategy with Dr Steven Wills, who brings a keen eye to the intricacies of strategy development, its challenges, and the integration of diverse naval capabilities. This session promises a thorough exploration of what constitutes U.S. Navy strategy, its objectives, and how it shapes the nation’s maritime future.
Episode 2:Dr. Bruce Jones, Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for East Asia Policy Studies, Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology, Brookings Institution. – Maritime Power Through History and Future – January 4, 2024
Join Dr. Bruce Jones for a historical and global perspective on maritime power. This session connects past and present maritime dynamics, exploring the influence of trade, climate change, and geopolitical shifts. Gain insights into how historical narratives of maritime prowess inform the current dynamics of power and influence in the global maritime domain.
Episode 3: Dr. Sam Tangredi, Leidos Chair of Future Warfare Studies and professor of national, naval, and maritime strategy at the U.S. Naval War College.January 11, 2024.
Embark on a technological journey with Dr. Sam Tangredi, an authority on the integration of AI in naval warfare. This session addresses how AI, big data, and human-machine interfaces are revolutionizing naval operations. Learn about the ethical, legal, and strategic dimensions of AI in the Navy and its profound impact on future naval force structure and capabilities.
Episode 4: Dr. Scott Savitz, Senior Engineer at the RAND Corporation – Innovation at Sea: Non-Lethal Weapons and Uncrewed Platforms – .January 18, 2024.
Explore the cutting-edge of naval innovation with Dr. Scott Savitz, focusing on non-lethal weapons and uncrewed platforms. Understand how these technologies are reshaping naval strategy and operations, their potential risks, and their role in maintaining strategic advantage over global rivals. This session promises insights into the future of naval warfare and national security.
Episode 5: Bryan Clark, senior fellow and director of the Center for Defense Concepts and Technology at Hudson Institute – The Technological Horizon of Naval Warfare – February 1st, 2024.
Delve into the future with as we examine the broad implications of emerging technologies like AI, big data, machine learning, and more in naval warfare. This session covers the integration challenges these technologies pose, their strategic impact, and their role in enhancing interoperability and effectiveness with global allies.⁰
Episode 6: Seth Cropsey, President Yorktown Institute. – Navigating Today’s Naval Challenges – February 8, 2024.
Join us as we explore the complexities of modern naval power with Seth Cropsey, a seasoned expert with extensive experience in the U.S. Naval and Department of Defense realms. This session offers an in-depth look at the current challenges and opportunities facing the Navy, particularly in the context of global rivalries. Discover the strategic insights that set the stage for a comprehensive understanding of contemporary naval dynamics.
Episode 7: Jon Rennie, co-founder, president, and CEO of Peak Demand Inc., – Leadership and Culture in Modern Naval Power –February 15th, 2024.
Conclude our series with Jon Rennie, focusing on the crucial elements of leadership, culture, and the balance between tradition and modernization within the Navy. This session highlights the importance of leadership in navigating the multifaceted challenges and opportunities in naval power, offering a holistic view of the organizational dynamics at play.
Welcome to Charting the Course: Navigating the Future of American Naval Power’ a podcast series that dives into the past, present, and future of the U.S. Navy and its impact on the world. This episode is the third of a eight in the series where we will discuss the U.S. Navy’s Fleet Size and Composition: Challenges and Opportunities for the Future.
In a world of shifting global dynamics, the United States Navy remains a pivotal force in American defense and international maritime security. With its comprehensive array of personnel, aircraft, and ships, the Navy demonstrates remarkable capabilities and readiness to address diverse global challenges.
However, the Navy also faces the question of optimal fleet size and composition, which is more relevant than ever, particularly as it grapples with future challenges and opportunities.
In this article, we will explore the current and projected state of the U.S. Navy’s fleet size and composition, and how it relates to the national defense strategy and the global security environment.
We will also discuss the challenges and opportunities that the Navy faces in building and maintaining a larger and more capable fleet, and the potential role of unmanned systems and technology in enhancing the Navy’s force structure and posture.
We will base our analysis on the latest data and research from reliable sources, such as the RAND Corporation, a think tank that conducts research and analysis on defense and national security issues. We also seek input from other notable organizations, our members and individuals and institutions representing the American public.
The Dilemma of Fleet Expansion
Recent Congressional efforts have pushed the Navy towards expanding the size of the fleet.
For fiscal 2023, Congress added nearly 20% to the Navy’s request for shipbuilding and compelled the Navy to retain half of the 24 ships that it had hoped to retire.
While a larger fleet might seem advantageous, the reality is more complex. According to Bradley Martin and Scott Savitz, researchers at the RAND Corporation, the Navy faces the challenge of balancing the expansion with adequate funding for personnel, maintenance, and technology upgrades.
Without these, a bigger fleet could ironically lead to reduced readiness according to their report. Building more ships is a vote-winner in a number of congressional districts, but absent the personnel and support needed, additional ships could spend more time at the piers and be less capable at sea according to some.
The Navy’s budget request for fiscal 2023 was $211.7 billion, a 1.8% increase from the previous year, but still below the inflation-adjusted average of $220.6 billion since 2001.
The Navy also faces the challenge of maintaining and modernizing its existing fleet, which has an average age of 21 years, the highest since 1973.
Defining the Fleet’s Purpose
Understanding the Navy’s goals is crucial. The current fleet’s configuration is not entirely suited for low-intensity conflicts or gray-zone provocations, like those that could arise from paramilitary actions.
This gap in capabilities raises questions about the composition and size of the fleet needed for effective deterrence and response. For example, if China used its maritime militia or coast guard to coerce shipping or seize disputed islands in the South China Sea, the U.S. Navy’s overall capabilities and force structure are not designed to effectively deal with them, given a paucity of the smaller combatant ships that might be useful in such an operation.
The Navy’s fleet is largely composed of large and expensive ships, such as aircraft carriers, cruisers, destroyers, and submarines, which are optimized for high-end warfare and power projection, but may not be the best suited for lower-end scenarios.
The Navy has 299 deployable combat vessels, of which 11 areaircraft carriers, 22 are cruisers, 66 are destroyers, and 68 are submarines.
These ships are equipped with advanced weapons and sensors, such as the Aegis combat system, Tomahawk cruise missiles, and Trident ballistic missiles, which give them the ability to strike targets at long ranges and to deter or defeat potential adversaries.
However, these ships are also costly to build and maintain, and may be vulnerable to anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) threats, such as anti-ship missiles, mines, and cyberattacks, that could limit their freedom of movement and operation.
Unmanned Vessels: A Game-Changer?
The integration of unmanned vessels presents a promising yet challenging frontier. These assets could potentially offer a more balanced force structure, by providing lower-cost and more-flexible assets that can perform a range of missions, such as intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR), mine countermeasures, anti-submarine warfare, and surface warfare.
The absence of personnel aboard these systems does more than enable them to take greater risks; it also means that they can be designed solely around the mission, without needing to support the needs of human beings.
While most of them currently complement manned assets, some may be able to supplant them as confidence in their capabilities increases.
The Navy operates or plans to acquire various types and numbers of unmanned systems, such as the MQ-4C Triton and MQ-8 Fire Scout unmanned aerial vehicles, the MQ-25 Stingray unmanned aerial refueling tanker, the Orca extra-large unmanned undersea vehicle, the Sea Hunter medium unmanned surface vessel, and the Ghost Fleet Overlord large unmanned surface vessel.
These systems could enhance the Navy’s situational awareness, endurance, reach, and lethality, while reducing the risk to human lives and the strain on the budget.
However, despite the Navy’s enthusiasm for unmanned assets across multiple domains, congressional committees have often expressed reservations about their effectiveness and capabilities.
The integration challenges are significant, and the manpower demands have not actually gone down, but have instead remained steady or increased. The Navy also faces legal, ethical, and operational issues, such as the rules of engagement, the command and control, and the interoperability of unmanned systems.
Strategic Alignment
A fundamental issue for the Navy is aligning its actions and operations with overarching strategic objectives. The Navy is locked in a daily struggle with global demand, facing persistent requests from geographical combatant commanders while seeking to avoid overstretch and maintain overall readiness, which may be hampering its ability to consider the overall requirement.
The Navy’s fleet size and composition should reflect the strategic priorities and objectives of the national defense strategy, which identifies China as the most significant and long-term strategic competitor to the United States, and places a primary focus on the need to sustain and strengthen U.S. deterrence against China in the Indo-Pacific region.
The Navy should also consider the potential roles and missions that it might perform in a potential war with China or elsewhere, and the types and numbers of ships that are required for each scenario. For example, the Navy might need to conduct attacks and intelligence missions from submarines, support Marines in amphibious operations, interdict Chinese merchant traffic far from China’s shores, and deter potential aggression from other adversaries, such as Russia, North Korea, Iran, and violent extremist organizations.
The Navy should also balance the trade-offs between quantity and quality, between readiness and modernization, and between current and future capabilities, and leverage the advantages of its nuclear forces, its submarine force, its amphibious and expeditionary forces, its carrier strike groups, its surface combatants, its unmanned systems, and its logistics and support vessels.
Conclusion
The U.S. Navy’s fleet size and composition is a critical factor for its ability to fulfill its mission and to protect the nation’s interests.
The Navy faces the challenge of building and maintaining a larger and more capable fleet, while also adapting to the changing global security environment and the emerging technological trends.
The Navy also needs to align its actions and operations with the national defense strategy and the strategic objectives of the United States and its allies and partners.
The decisions made today will have far-reaching implications for the U.S. Navy and national security. As we at “Americans for a Stronger Navy” advocate, a robust, well-equipped, and strategically aligned Navy is imperative for America’s defense and global maritime dominance.
Call to Action
Join us in our mission by following along with this series that aim to support and promote a Navy that is ready for the challenges of today and prepared for the uncertainties of tomorrow. Your voice matters in shaping the future of American naval power. Please read on and follow along as we publish fresh content weekly on this blog.
In addition to questions development by the organizing committee, we have prepared the following additional questions to guide our discussion and analysis of the U.S. Navy’s fleet size and composition. We invite you to share your thoughts and feedback on this important topic, and to join us in our mission to support and promote a Navy that is ready for the challenges of today and prepared for the uncertainties of tomorrow.
• How does the U.S. Navy measure its fleet size and composition, and what are the metrics and benchmarks that it uses to assess its adequacy and effectiveness?
• How does the U.S. Navy collaborate with its allies and partners to enhance its collective security and interoperability, and what are the opportunities and challenges for burden-sharing and capability development?
• How does the U.S. Navy address the emerging and evolving threats and challenges posed by China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, and violent extremist organizations, and what are the gaps and shortfalls in its current and projected capabilities?
• How does the U.S. Navy innovate and modernize its fleet to maintain its technological edge and operational advantage, and what are the priorities and trade-offs for its research and development, acquisition, and procurement programs?
Our Distinguished Hosts:
Join Bill Cullifer, founder of Americans for a Stronger Navy, and former Destroyer Navy sailor. As a patriot, entrepreneur and podcaster, Bill brings a wealth of experience to the conversation. Alongside him will be Dale A. Jenkins, a noted Naval historian and the author of “Diplomats and Admirals.” Dale serves on the Samuel Eliot Morison Committee of the Naval Order of the United States in New York and is also a Regional Director of the Naval War College Foundation.
They’ll guide the discussions, bringing a wealth of knowledge to the series.
Speakers
We have invited leaders and experts in naval and national defense to make podcasts with us that will be posted on our website on a weekly schedule. These weekly podcasts include, Bryan Clark: Senior Fellow and Director of the Center for Defense Concepts and Technology at the Hudson Institute, Seth Cropsey: President of the Yorktown Institute, Dr. Bruce Jones: Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, Jon S. Rennie: US Navy Veteran, Business Leader, Author, and Speaker, Dr. Scott Savitz: Senior Engineer at the RAND Corporation, Dr. Sam Tangredi: Leidos Chair of Future Warfare Studies at the U.S. Naval War College. Dr. Steven Wills: Navalist for the Center for Maritime Strategy at the Navy League of the United States.
Episodes
These podcasts provide in-depth analyses on the latest weapons systems, artificial intelligence (AI), current worldwide national security strategy, force structure and adequacy of naval forces, innovation of new weapon systems and the leadership qualities needed to achieve our naval and national security goals. Vast majority of participants are former Naval officers who have taken their experience in the Navy to new endeavors.
Our podcasts will be one-hour zoom sessions, with a post-show summary with Bill and myself.
Future podcasts will continue to 8 and analyze current and future threats and challenges from China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. We will be alert for other potential threats. Defense spending and budget, weapon systems, alliances and partnerships, trade and economic policies, human rights and democracy promotion will also be explored.
‘Charting the Course: Navigating the Future of American Naval Power‘
‘Welcome to Charting the Course: Navigating the Future of American Naval Power’ a podcast series that dives into the past, present, and future of the U.S. Navy and its impact on the world. This is the inaugural discussion of our series where we will introduce the main themes, topics and the speakers that we will explore in the coming episodes.
Before we dive into our inaugural discussion, we want to remind you that this series is not just a one-time event, but a continuous conversation that we started in our pre event blog post. In that post, we introduced the main themes, topics, and speakers that we will explore in this series, as well as the historical context and relevance of the U.S. Navy’s role and contribution in the global maritime commons, we also invited you to join us in this journey of learning and discovery, and to share your thoughts and questions with us and our guests.
I’m Bill Cullifer, the founder of the Americans for a Stronger Navy, a non-profit organization that advocates for a robust and resilient naval force. In this series, ‘Charting the Course: Navigating the Future of American Naval Power’ is an essential series that addresses the pressing challenges the U.S. Navy confronts in an era of evolving global threats.
As the United States navigates shifting geopolitical dynamics and grapples with a rising Chinese military threat, the challenges faced by the Navy have never been more critical to our national security.
Together, we’ll explore how the Navy has shaped and been shaped by the history, culture, and politics of the United States and its allies and adversaries. We’ll also discuss the current and emerging challenges and opportunities that the Navy faces in a complex and dynamic global environment, and how it can chart a course for success and security in the 21st century and beyond.
Joining me today is Dale A. Jenkins, the author of “Diplomats and Admirals” and a senior advisor at the Americans for a Stronger Navy. We have invited leaders and experts in naval and national defense to make podcasts with us that will be posted on our website on a weekly schedule. This is a transcript of the inaugural discussion.
Speakersand Sessions
Episode 1: Dr. Steven Wills, Navalist for the Center for Maritime Strategy at the Navy League of the United States. – The Anatomy of Naval Strate – December 28, 2023
Dive deep into the world of naval strategy with Dr Steven Wills, who brings a keen eye to the intricacies of strategy development, its challenges, and the integration of diverse naval capabilities. This session promises a thorough exploration of what constitutes U.S. Navy strategy, its objectives, and how it shapes the nation’s maritime future.
Episode 2:Dr. Bruce Jones, Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for East Asia Policy Studies, Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology, Brookings Institution. – Maritime Power Through History and Future – January 4, 2024
Join Dr. Bruce Jones for a historical and global perspective on maritime power. This session connects past and present maritime dynamics, exploring the influence of trade, climate change, and geopolitical shifts. Gain insights into how historical narratives of maritime prowess inform the current dynamics of power and influence in the global maritime domain.
Episode 3: Dr. Sam Tangredi, Leidos Chair of Future Warfare Studies and professor of national, naval, and maritime strategy at the U.S. Naval War College.January 11, 2024.
Embark on a technological journey with Dr. Sam Tangredi, an authority on the integration of AI in naval warfare. This session addresses how AI, big data, and human-machine interfaces are revolutionizing naval operations. Learn about the ethical, legal, and strategic dimensions of AI in the Navy and its profound impact on future naval force structure and capabilities.
Episode 4: Dr. Scott Savitz, Senior Engineer at the RAND Corporation – Innovation at Sea: Non-Lethal Weapons and Uncrewed Platforms – .January 18, 2024.
Explore the cutting-edge of naval innovation with Dr. Scott Savitz, focusing on non-lethal weapons and uncrewed platforms. Understand how these technologies are reshaping naval strategy and operations, their potential risks, and their role in maintaining strategic advantage over global rivals. This session promises insights into the future of naval warfare and national security.
Episode 5: Bryan Clark, senior fellow and director of the Center for Defense Concepts and Technology at Hudson Institute – The Technological Horizon of Naval Warfare – February 1st, 2024.
Delve into the future with as we examine the broad implications of emerging technologies like AI, big data, machine learning, and more in naval warfare. This session covers the integration challenges these technologies pose, their strategic impact, and their role in enhancing interoperability and effectiveness with global allies.⁰
Episode 6: Seth Cropsey, President Yorktown Institute. – Navigating Today’s Naval Challenges – February 8, 2024.
Join us as we explore the complexities of modern naval power with Seth Cropsey, a seasoned expert with extensive experience in the U.S. Naval and Department of Defense realms. This session offers an in-depth look at the current challenges and opportunities facing the Navy, particularly in the context of global rivalries. Discover the strategic insights that set the stage for a comprehensive understanding of contemporary naval dynamics.
Episode 7: Jon Rennie, co-founder, president, and CEO of Peak Demand Inc., – Leadership and Culture in Modern Naval Power –February 15th, 2024.
Conclude our series with Jon Rennie, focusing on the crucial elements of leadership, culture, and the balance between tradition and modernization within the Navy. This session highlights the importance of leadership in navigating the multifaceted challenges and opportunities in naval power, offering a holistic view of the organizational dynamics at play.
Hello and welcome to ‘Charting the Course: Navigating the Future of American Naval Power’, a podcast series brought to you by Americans for a Stronger Navy, a non-profit group that advocates for:
A robust and modern naval force that can deter and defeat threats.
Protection and promotion of trade.
Support of allies and partners around the globe.
I’m Bill Cullifer, founder of Americans for a Stronger Navy and your podcast host.
As a former Us Navy Destroyer Sailor, technology sector community leader, and organizer, I hope to bring a wealth of experience to the conversation and our mission for a stronger Navy.
Alongside me is Dale A. Jenkins, a noted Naval historian and the author of “Diplomats and Admirals”, a comprehensive and investigative research project into WW2 Naval history at Midway.
Dale serves on:
The Samuel Eliot Morison Committee of the Naval Order of the United States in New York.
And is also a Regional Director of the Naval War College Foundation.
Dale also serves as Senior Advisor to the Americans for a Stronger Navy.
Bill: Hello Dale and welcome to the podcast series.
Dale: Thanks Bill. happy to be here.
Bill: Thanks Dale.
The purpose and goal of this series is to:
provide a comprehensive overview of the challenges, and opportunities of the U.S. Navy
and its role in advancing the nation’s interests and values in the world.
This is an essential series that addresses:
The pressing challenges the U.S. Navy confronts in an era of evolving global threats.
As the United States navigates shifting geopolitical dynamics and grapples with:
A rising Chinese military threat in the Taiwan Strait,
Iranian proxies in the Mediterranean Sea, the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf,
Other adversaries in our own hemisphere, the Navy’s role has never been more critical to our national security.
In this 8 – episode series, we will go beyond mere reporting, diving deep into the heart of these challenges to shed light on their implications and the decisions that will shape the future of American naval power.
We will not only report the facts, but also analyze the implications. We will not only describe the challenges, but also explore the opportunities. We will not only look at the past, but also envision the future.
We believe that:
Understanding these challenges is paramount, as the U.S. Navy is not only a symbol of our nation’s strength but also a key instrument in maintaining global stability.
We hope you will join us for this exciting and informative journey, as we chart the course for the future of American naval power.
Bill: Dale, over to you for additional detail about the sessions.
Dale: Thanks Bill
We have invited leaders and experts in naval and national defense to make podcasts with us that will be posted on our website on a weekly schedule. These weekly podcasts include, Bryan Clark: Senior Fellow and Director of the Center for Defense Concepts and Technology at the Hudson Institute, Seth Cropsey: President of the Yorktown Institute, Dr. Bruce Jones: Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, Jon S. Rennie: US Navy Veteran, Business Leader, Author, and Speaker, Dr. Scott Savitz: Senior Engineer at the RAND Corporation, Dr. Sam Tangredi: Leidos Chair of Future Warfare Studies at the U.S. Naval War College. Dr. Steven Wills: Navalist for the Center for Maritime Strategy at the Navy League of the United States.
These podcasts provide in-depth analyses on the latest weapons systems, artificial intelligence (AI), current worldwide national security strategy, force structure and adequacy of naval forces, innovation of new weapon systems and the leadership qualities needed to achieve our naval and national security goals. Vast majority of participants are former Naval officers who have taken their experience in the Navy to new endeavors.
Our podcasts will be one-hour zoom sessions, with a post-show summary with Bill and myself.
Future podcasts will continue to 8 and analyze current and future threats and challenges from China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. We will be alert for other potential threats. Defense spending and budget, weapon systems, alliances and partnerships, trade and economic policies, human rights and democracy promotion will also be explored.
We are aware of the evolution of the U.S. Navy, not only as a tradition but as a means of drawing on historical events and precedents as they may illuminate current circumstances.
Dale: Bill back to you to explain Why This Matters
Bill: Thanks Dale
In this section, we will explain why this podcast series matters and what we hope to accomplish with it.
Why does this matter?
Because the U.S. Navy is vital for the national security and foreign policy of the United States.
Naval forces cannot be strengthened overrnight, or even in several years.
The Navy must be prepared in advance and have considered strategies to deal with unexpected crises. Crises cannot simply be dealt with by hasty mobilizations or extended deployments, and then written off as cost-free.
Such actions take a toll in maintenance, readiness, and, perhaps most important,
the commitment of officers and sailors to a career that makes strenuous demands on normal human life patterns during periods usually described as peacetime.
The decisions and actions that are taken or not taken on these issues have profound implications and consequences for the future of our nation and the world.values in the global commons, such as the oceans, the air, the space, and the cyberspace, where no one country has sovereignty but everyone has a stake.
The U.S. Navy ensures the freedom
According to a recent survey by the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute, 83% of Americans agree that a strong U.S. Navy is critical to protecting our country and our allies, and 79% agree that a strong U.S. Navy is critical to ensuring free trade around the world.
We created this series because we believe that there is a need and demand for a comprehensive and timely assessment of the U.S. military strength and security, especially in the maritime domain.
We also believe that there is a lack and a gap of public awareness and education on these issues,
and that they are relevant and urgent for the security and prosperity of the United States and its allies.
We hope that this series will inform and educate you about the critical issues that affect the U.S. Navy and its role in the world, and inspire and engage you to take action and make a difference.
We also aim to:
Provide factual and balanced information and analysis on the current state and future direction of the U.S. Navy, and the opportunities and challenges that it faces in the 21st century.
• To present diverse and credible perspectives and opinions from experts and stakeholders on the issues and topics that affect the U.S. Navy and its role in the world, and to foster a constructive and respectful dialogue and debate among them.
• To offer practical and actionable suggestions and recommendations on how the U.S. Navy can improve its performance and effectiveness, and how the government and the public can support and sustain the U.S. Navy and its mission.
Bill: Dale, over to you.
Learning Objectives and What We Want Our Audience to Know
• The U.S. Navy is a vital instrument of national security and foreign policy, and it faces many challenges and opportunities in the 21st century.
• The U.S. Navy needs a larger and more capable fleet, which can deter and defeat potential adversaries, protect and promote trade and commerce, and support and strengthen allies and partners, especially in the Indo-Pacific region.
• The U.S. Navy requires more investment and support from the government and the public, to ensure that it maintains its military edge and deterrence capability, and to address the gaps and risks that it faces in terms of capacity, capability, readiness, and modernization.
• The U.S. Navy is a force for good in the world, and it upholds and advances the values and interests of the United States and its allies, such as freedom, democracy, human rights, and peace.
What’s Next – Current status
• In the next episode, we will dive into the topic of the U.S. Navy’s fleet size and composition, and why it matters for the national security and foreign policy of the United States. We will examine the current and projected state of the U.S. Navy’s fleet, the challenges and opportunities that it faces in meeting the 355-ship goal set by Congress, and the trade-offs and choices that are involved in building and maintaining a larger and more capable fleet.
Dale: Over to you Bill
BIll:
Thank you Dale and thank you for listening to this introduction episode of Charting the Course: Navigating the Future of American Naval Power. We hope you enjoyed it and learned something new. Please follow our podcast on your favorite platform, and share it with your friends and family. We would love to hear from you, so please send us your comments and questions to our email address or leave us a voice message on our website. We look forward to hearing from you and engaging with you in this important conversation.
Echoes of History: Steering the Future in Charting the Course: Navigating the Future of American Naval Power – Reflecting on WWII’s Legacy in Current Naval Strategy
Welcome to our Insightful Series!
Bill Cullifer, Founder
Welcome Members and Friends to ‘Charting the Course: Navigating the Future of American Naval Power,’ an essential series presented by Americans for a Stronger Navy. I’m Bill Cullifer, the voice behind this series and the founder of Americans for a Stronger Navy. With a thumbs-up, I warmly welcome you to the first episode in an eight-week journey that delves into the intricacies of naval power and the pivotal issues shaping our future security and stability.
Personal Insights & Historical Significance:
As a former Destroyer Navy Sailor and an advocate for naval advancement, I bring not only my naval experience to the table but also a passion for innovation and strategic thinking. Our series embarks on its voyage today, December 7, 2023 a date steeped in history that reminds us of the sacrifices made for peace and the vigilance required to maintain stability. Understanding WWII is crucial to comprehending the ‘why’ behind our series, ‘Navigating the Future of American Naval Power.’
Though we may not be meeting in person, each episode of this series is an open invitation to engage in meaningful discussions. Together, we’ll explore the current state and future prospects of American naval power. I’ll be here alongside Dale A. Jenkins, Senior Advisor and author “Diplomats and Admirals” to dissect and discuss each topic with you, our dedicated audience.
Podcast Series Schedule:
We’ve lined up eight thought-provoking sessions, with a new podcast released weekly, allowing us time to dive deep and discuss the nuances of each topic.
Today – December 7, 2023 – Orientation and Bonus Track WWII: We kick off the series by introducing its themes and discussing the enduring legacy of Pearl Harbor Day in the context of today’s naval challenges.
December 14, 2023 – Inaugural Discussion: Join Dale A. Jenkins, Senior Advisor at Americans for a Stronger Navy and author of “Diplomats and Admirals” and me as we set the stage for the critical conversations that will unfold throughout the series.
Weekly Episodes:
Speakersand Sessions
Episode 1: Dr. Steven Wills, Navalist for the Center for Maritime Strategy at the Navy League of the United States. – The Anatomy of Naval Strate – December 28, 2023
Dive deep into the world of naval strategy with Dr Steven Wills, who brings a keen eye to the intricacies of strategy development, its challenges, and the integration of diverse naval capabilities. This session promises a thorough exploration of what constitutes U.S. Navy strategy, its objectives, and how it shapes the nation’s maritime future.
Episode 2:Dr. Bruce Jones, Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for East Asia Policy Studies, Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology, Brookings Institution. – Maritime Power Through History and Future – January 4, 2024
Join Dr. Bruce Jones for a historical and global perspective on maritime power. This session connects past and present maritime dynamics, exploring the influence of trade, climate change, and geopolitical shifts. Gain insights into how historical narratives of maritime prowess inform the current dynamics of power and influence in the global maritime domain.
Episode 3: Dr. Sam Tangredi, Leidos Chair of Future Warfare Studies and professor of national, naval, and maritime strategy at the U.S. Naval War College.January 11, 2024.
Embark on a technological journey with Dr. Sam Tangredi, an authority on the integration of AI in naval warfare. This session addresses how AI, big data, and human-machine interfaces are revolutionizing naval operations. Learn about the ethical, legal, and strategic dimensions of AI in the Navy and its profound impact on future naval force structure and capabilities.
Episode 4: Dr. Scott Savitz, Senior Engineer at the RAND Corporation – Innovation at Sea: Non-Lethal Weapons and Uncrewed Platforms – .January 18, 2024.
Explore the cutting-edge of naval innovation with Dr. Scott Savitz, focusing on non-lethal weapons and uncrewed platforms. Understand how these technologies are reshaping naval strategy and operations, their potential risks, and their role in maintaining strategic advantage over global rivals. This session promises insights into the future of naval warfare and national security.
Episode 5: Bryan Clark, senior fellow and director of the Center for Defense Concepts and Technology at Hudson Institute – The Technological Horizon of Naval Warfare – February 1st, 2024.
Delve into the future with as we examine the broad implications of emerging technologies like AI, big data, machine learning, and more in naval warfare. This session covers the integration challenges these technologies pose, their strategic impact, and their role in enhancing interoperability and effectiveness with global allies.⁰
Episode 6: Seth Cropsey, President Yorktown Institute. – Navigating Today’s Naval Challenges – February 8, 2024.
Join us as we explore the complexities of modern naval power with Seth Cropsey, a seasoned expert with extensive experience in the U.S. Naval and Department of Defense realms. This session offers an in-depth look at the current challenges and opportunities facing the Navy, particularly in the context of global rivalries. Discover the strategic insights that set the stage for a comprehensive understanding of contemporary naval dynamics.
Episode 7: Jon Rennie, co-founder, president, and CEO of Peak Demand Inc., – Leadership and Culture in Modern Naval Power –February 15th, 2024.
Conclude our series with Jon Rennie, focusing on the crucial elements of leadership, culture, and the balance between tradition and modernization within the Navy. This session highlights the importance of leadership in navigating the multifaceted challenges and opportunities in naval power, offering a holistic view of the organizational dynamics at play.
Engagement and Exploration:
Each episode is designed to be a treasure trove of insights and expertise, and I’ll be here with Dale to unpack each session in our post-show debriefs. Mark your calendars, and prepare for a series that charts not just the course of a podcast, but the journey of American naval power into the future.
Additional Information:
Schedule of Events: Stay informed of upcoming episodes and special events. Visit our schedule page for the latest updates and detailed information about each episode in the ‘Charting the Course’ series.
Contact Information: Your feedback and questions are invaluable to us. Please feel free to reach out via our contact page or email us directly at the contact us page at StrongerNavy.org
We’re here to engage with you and answer any queries you may have.
Featured Resource – ‘Echoes of History: Steering the Future in ‘Charting the Course”: For a deeper dive into the themes of our series, don’t miss our comprehensive analysis in “Echoes of History.” This resource provides rich insights into how historical naval strategies inform our current and future naval power. Available here.
BONUS TRACK: WWII’s Influence on Modern Naval Strategy: Complete Course Content
Introduction: Welcome, everyone. Today, we’re going to explore how World War II fundamentally reshaped naval warfare and its enduring impact on today’s naval strategy. This understanding is crucial for grasping the discussions in our ‘Charting the Course’ series.
Section 1: The Shift in Naval Warfare: Let’s start with a significant shift during WWII: the transition from battleship dominance to the era of the aircraft carrier. Before WWII, battleships were seen as the epitome of naval power. However, the Battle of Midway in 1942 marked a turning point. In this battle, U.S. carrier-based aircraft sank four Japanese fleet carriers, demonstrating the potency of air power in naval engagements. This victory marked the decline of the battleship and the rise of the aircraft carrier as the new capital ship of naval forces.
Section 2: Submarine Warfare and the Battle of the Atlantic: Next, let’s turn to submarine warfare. German U-boats posed a significant threat to Allied shipping during the Battle of the Atlantic. Their strategy was to disrupt Allied supply lines and it was devastatingly effective. German U-boats sank around 2,779 ships, underscoring the critical role of submarines in modern naval strategy. This aspect of naval warfare emphasized the need for anti-submarine tactics and technology, which continue to be a pivotal element in contemporary naval defense.
Section 3: Technological Advancements: Technological advancements during WWII were extraordinary. Radar and sonar, for instance, revolutionized naval engagements. These technologies allowed navies to detect and track enemy ships and aircraft over greater distances and with greater accuracy than ever before. Another significant breakthrough was in codebreaking. The Allied efforts to decrypt the Enigma machine, led by teams like those at Bletchley Park, were vital. The intelligence gathered from these efforts, especially during the Battle of Midway, provided the Allies with a critical advantage, shaping many naval engagements.
Section 4: Amphibious Operations and Joint Forces: Amphibious operations were another crucial aspect of WWII. The D-Day landings at Normandy are a prime example. This operation involved over 5,000 ships and landing craft and marked one of the largest amphibious military assaults in history. The success of such operations depended on seamless coordination between naval, air, and land forces, exemplifying the evolution of joint-force operations. This integrated approach to military operations has since become a staple of modern military strategy.
Section 5: Strategic and Geopolitical Outcomes: In the aftermath of WWII, the global geopolitical landscape underwent dramatic changes. The U.S. emerged as a dominant naval power. This shift influenced the formation of NATO, a collective defense pact that played a significant role in naval strategy during the Cold War and continues to impact geopolitical dynamics. The post-WWII era saw the U.S. Navy becoming a central tool in American foreign policy, with its ability to project power globally.
Conclusion: To conclude, the lessons and transformations from WWII continue to influence modern naval strategy. Understanding these historical contexts is key to navigating the complexities of contemporary naval challenges. As we proceed with our ‘Charting the Course’ series, keep these insights in mind as they provide a valuable perspective on current and future naval strategies.
With a heritage rooted in my service as a US Navy Destroyer sailor and as the founder of Americans for a Stronger Navy, I carry a profound appreciation for the indispensable role of the U.S. Navy in safeguarding our nation’s security and prosperity. Having stood stem to stern with sailors of diverse backgrounds, I’ve been a witness to their commitment and the sacrifices they make for our country’s well-being. My dedication to this esteemed American institution is unwavering, and I am resolute in my commitment to maintain our Navy as the most formidable maritime force globally.
It is encouraging to note that GOP candidates Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley in last night’s debates have both recognized the need for a “stronger Navy.” Their collective acknowledgment underscores the urgency of reinforcing our naval capabilities in the face of escalating threats from strategic adversaries like China, Russia and Iran.
Echoing Eaglen’s sentiments, I contend that an agile adaptation to the shifting maritime theater is essential. Investing in the right mix of technology, forging stronger alliances, and galvanizing public support for naval endeavors are critical steps towards this goal.
As we acknowledge the challenges outlined by Eaglen and others, we at Americans for a Stronger Navy understand the gravity of these concerns and the imperative of a strategic response.
The Path Forward
To address the multi-faceted nature of these challenges, a comprehensive strategy encompassing innovation, force structure assessment, shipyard modernization, and strengthened alliances is necessary:
Strategic Innovation: The Navy should lead in deploying advanced technologies like unmanned systems and artificial intelligence, amplifying the capabilities of our current fleet and personnel.
Force Structure Assessment: Regular evaluations of our force composition will ensure that we have the optimal blend of high-end assets and versatile platforms for varied operational demands.
Shipyard Modernization: Upgrading our shipbuilding facilities and fostering workforce proficiency is crucial for augmenting our shipbuilding capacity and minimizing maintenance delays.
Budget Certainty: It’s imperative that Congress affords the Navy a predictable and substantial budget, mitigating the inefficiencies of financial uncertainty.
Alliances and Partnerships: Fortifying our bonds with allies and encouraging their naval modernization endeavors will be pivotal for a robust collective defense.
Holistic Defense Strategy: The Navy must be integrated within a broader defense architecture that encompasses air, space, cyber, and land forces.
Education and Outreach: Fostering strong connections with educational entities will nurture the future craftsmen and leaders essential for naval supremacy.
Investing in Its People: The backbone of the U.S. Navy is its sailors. To maintain a competitive edge, we must invest in their professional growth and personal well-being. This entails comprehensive training programs, educational opportunities, career development paths, and supportive services that ensure our sailors are not only prepared to meet the demands of modern warfare but also feel valued and invested in. By doing so, we cultivate a workforce that is resilient, skilled, and deeply committed to the Navy’s mission. Our sailors deserve the best support a nation can offer, from cutting-edge training systems to robust family and health services, ensuring they are mission-ready and their families are well cared for.
Public Engagement
To cultivate enduring support for a formidable Navy, we must enhance public engagement through:
Awareness campaigns that illuminate the Navy’s role and capabilities.
Educational programs to broaden knowledge of the Navy’s contribution to national security.
Opportunities for public involvement to support the Navy’s mission.
Concluding Thoughts
In essence, we urge a united front of policymakers, industry leaders, and citizens to embrace a strategic vision that preserves the U.S. Navy’s preeminence on the global stage. With discerning evaluations and consistent investment, we can nurture a balanced, mighty naval force ready to counter any threat and uphold our national interests for future generations.
Welcome back to Fleet Forward: Charting Tomorrow’s Navy, a podcast series that explores the challenges and opportunities facing the US Navy in the 21st century.
In the previous episode, we introduced the series and explained why we decided to create it. We also discussed the format and the content of the series, and how we hope to provide you with insightful and informative analysis and commentary on the issues and trends that shape the Navy’s present and future.
The Budgetary Challenge of Naval Shipbuilding
In this episode, we will focus on one of the most important and contentious issues facing the Navy: the budgetary challenge of naval shipbuilding. How much does it cost to build a Navy? How do we balance the need for a larger and more capable fleet with the reality of fiscal constraints and competing priorities? How do we ensure that our naval force is ready and relevant for the 21st century?
These are some of the questions that we will explore in this episode, as we examine the Navy’s shipbuilding plan for fiscal year 2024, which presents three alternatives for the future fleet, each with different costs and capabilities. We will also explore how the Congressional Budget Office and Brent Sadler have critiqued the Navy’s plan and offered alternative perspectives on how to optimize the Navy’s budget and capabilities. We will also delve into the stories and people behind the Navy’s shipbuilding strategies, and reflect on their implications for our national security, economic vitality, and our role on the global stage.
The Stakeholders and Perspectives of Naval Strategy
Today we ’ll not only delve into the Navy’s shipbuilding strategies but also the stories and people behind them, reflecting on our national security, economic vitality, and our role on the global stage.
Introduction
In this episode, we will examine the fiscal landscape of naval procurement, focusing on the budgetary challenges and trade-offs that the Navy faces in pursuing its shipbuilding plans. We will also explore how the CBO and Sandler have critiqued the Navy’s strategies and offered alternative perspectives on how to optimize the Navy’s budget and capabilities.
The Navy’s Shipbuilding Budget
The Navy’s shipbuilding budget is the primary source of funding for acquiring new ships and maintaining the existing fleet. The budget is determined by the Navy’s long-term shipbuilding plan, which outlines the desired size, composition, and capabilities of the future fleet, as well as the projected costs and schedules for each ship class. The plan is updated annually and submitted to Congress as part of the President’s budget request.
The current shipbuilding plan, released in December 2022, covers the period from 2023 to 2052 and aims to achieve a fleet of 355 ships by 2035 and 400 ships by 2052. The plan also introduces the DDG(X) program, which is intended to replace the aging Arleigh Burke-class destroyers with a more advanced and capable design. The plan estimates that the Navy will need an average of $33 billion per year (in 2022 dollars) for shipbuilding over the next 30 years, which is 50 percent more than the historical average of $22 billion per year over the past 30 years.
The CBO’s Analysis of the Navy’s Shipbuilding Plan
The CBO, an independent and nonpartisan agency that provides budgetary and economic analysis to Congress, has conducted a detailed assessment of the Navy’s shipbuilding plan and its implications for the federal budget and the Navy’s capabilities. The CBO’s report, released in October 2023, raises several issues and challenges with the plan, such as:
• The plan’s cost estimates are optimistic and likely to increase over time, due to factors such as inflation, technical risks, and schedule delays. The CBO projects that the plan will actually cost an average of $40 billion per year (in 2022 dollars) for shipbuilding over the next 30 years, which is 21 percent more than the Navy’s estimate and 82 percent more than the historical average.
• The plan’s funding requirements are unsustainable and unrealistic, given the competing demands and constraints on the federal budget. The CBO estimates that the plan will consume an average of 13 percent of the total defense budget over the next 30 years, which is significantly higher than the historical average of 9 percent. The plan will also require increasing the Navy’s share of the defense budget from 28 percent in 2022 to 34 percent in 2052, which will likely entail reducing the funding for other military services or increasing the overall defense budget.
• The plan’s fleet size and composition goals are ambitious and questionable, given the operational and strategic environment. The CBO questions the rationale and feasibility of achieving a 400-ship fleet by 2052, which would be the largest fleet since the end of World War II. The CBO also suggests that the plan may not adequately account for the changing nature of naval warfare and the emergence of new threats and technologies, such as cyberattacks, hypersonic weapons, and unmanned systems.
The CBO’s report concludes that the Navy’s shipbuilding plan is not a viable or effective strategy for meeting the nation’s naval needs and recommends that the Navy and Congress reconsider the plan’s assumptions, objectives, and priorities. The CBO also offers some alternative shipbuilding scenarios that would achieve different fleet sizes and compositions at lower costs than the Navy’s plan.
Sandler’s Critique of the Navy’s Shipbuilding Plan
Sandler, a former U.S. Naval Captain and author of U.S. Power in the 21st Century, has also published a blog post in November 2023, criticizing the Navy’s shipbuilding plan and proposing a different approach to naval strategy and shipbuilding. Sandler’s main arguments are:
• The Navy’s shipbuilding plan is based on a flawed and outdated paradigm of naval power, which emphasizes quantity over quality, platforms over payloads, and conventional over asymmetric warfare. Sandler argues that the Navy is stuck in a Cold War mentality and fails to adapt to the changing realities and challenges of the 21st century, such as the rise of China, the proliferation of anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities, and the diffusion of power and influence.
• The Navy’s shipbuilding plan is wasteful and inefficient, as it invests in expensive and vulnerable ships that are not suited for the current and future threat environment. Sandler singles out the DDG(X) program as an example of a misguided and unnecessary project, which he calls a “gold-plated boondoggle” that will cost billions of dollars and provide marginal benefits. Sandler contends that the DDG(X) is a redundant and obsolete design that will be outmatched by cheaper and more effective weapons and systems, such as missiles, drones, and submarines.
• The Navy’s shipbuilding plan is counterproductive and dangerous, as it provokes and escalates tensions with potential adversaries, especially China, and undermines the stability and security of the international order. Sandler warns that the Navy’s pursuit of a 400-ship fleet and the DDG(X) program will trigger a naval arms race and increase the risk of conflict and miscalculation in the Indo-Pacific region. Sandler also cautions that the Navy’s plan will alienate and weaken the U.S.’s allies and partners, who may not share the same vision or interests as the U.S. and may not be willing or able to contribute to the Navy’s ambitious and costly goals.
Sandler’s blog post concludes that the Navy’s shipbuilding plan is a strategic blunder and a fiscal disaster that will undermine the U.S.’s naval power and global leadership. Sandler advocates for a radical shift in the Navy’s mindset and approach, which he calls “smart power”. Sandler’s smart power concept is based on four principles:
• Quality over quantity: The Navy should focus on developing and acquiring fewer but more capable and versatile ships that can deliver multiple effects and missions across the spectrum of conflict.
• Payloads over platforms: The Navy should prioritize investing in and deploying advanced and adaptable weapons and systems, such as missiles, drones, and cyber capabilities, that can enhance the lethality and survivability of the existing and future fleet.
• Asymmetric over conventional warfare: The Navy should embrace and exploit the opportunities and advantages of asymmetric warfare, such as stealth, speed, deception, and innovation, that can offset and counter the A2/AD capabilities of potential adversaries.
• Cooperation over competition: The Navy should seek and strengthen cooperation and coordination with the U.S.’s allies and partners, as well as engage and deter potential adversaries, through diplomacy, deterrence, and dialogue, rather than confrontation, coercion, and conflict.
Conclusion
In this episode, we have explored the fiscal landscape of naval procurement and the budgetary challenges and trade-offs that the Navy faces in pursuing its shipbuilding plans. We have also examined how the CBO and Sandler have critiqued the Navy’s strategies and offered alternative perspectives on how to optimize the Navy’s budget and capabilities. In the next episode, we will delve into the technological advancements and design considerations in modern shipbuilding, with a spotlight on the DDG(X) program. Stay tuned for more insights and analyses on the Navy’s path forward.
The “Americans for a Stronger Navy” initiative invites experts, thought leaders, and specialists to lend their voice to a groundbreaking webinar series, ‘Charting the Course’, shedding light on the evolving landscape of naval strength, AI advancements, and defense budgetary challenges.
Topics of Interest:
The “Replicator” initiative and its repercussions on AI system development.
Navigating budgetary challenges within the defense sector.
The role of Naval strategy in global geopolitics.
Steps to ensure a future-ready U.S. Navy.
The transformational power of AI in naval warfare.
Who Should Apply:
This call is open to members, subscribers, and anyone with expertise in national security, defense, and U.S. Navy topics. It’s an opportunity to enlighten a dedicated audience about critical issues shaping American Naval strength and security.
Episode Topics Available for Speakers:
Rethinking Traditional Shipbuilding – Delve into the modernization of the U.S. Navy fleet. (Duration: 40 mins)
Budgetary Realities in Defense – Analyze budget constraints and defense initiative funding. (Duration: 40 mins)
Implications of Naval Strategy – Examine how naval strategies influence global dynamics. (Duration: 40 mins)
Strategies for a Future-Ready Navy – Share insights on prepping the Navy for future challenges. (Duration: 40 mins)
AI and the US Navy – Explore the role of AI in naval warfare evolution. (Duration: 45 mins)
Details:
The series, underwritten by the Americans for a Stronger Navy, is set to debut on December 7, 2023. All episodes will be freely accessible at StrongerNavy.org. Click here for further event details.
How to Apply:
Interested speakers are invited to submit their credentials, along with a brief proposal outlining their preferred topic and approach. Please submit name and email using the contacr us page below or by email at strongernavydotorg AT gmail.com or on Twitter @StrongerNavy.
Call to Action:
Don’t just witness the future; help shape it! Apply now to be a speaker in ‘Charting the Course’ and steer the conversation on the future of American naval power.
